Will Ethiopia Succeed in Reaching Warm Waters?

By Atta Al-Mannan Bakheet

The world was surprised by the agreement signed during the past few days between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiye Ahmed and the president of the internationally unrecognized Somali Land region, according to which Ethiopia’s sovereignty was imposed over the strategic port of Berbera on the Red Sea.
In fact, Abiye Ahmed hinted at this agreement in his controversial speech in mid-October. The speech raised important questions about Ethiopia’s intentions in the region. Abiye Ahmed said: His country, with an estimated population of about 150 million people, will not remain landlocked by the prison of geography. He added that obtaining a sea port is a vital issue for Ethiopia, and hinted that it will seek to obtain this right by peace or by force. In the speech of the Ethiopian Prime Minister, which has many perspectives expressed in his words when he said: The Nile and the Red Sea are the basis for the development of Ethiopia. Here an objective question arises: Why was the Nile included in an issue related to access to the Red Sea, noting that Ethiopia is one of the sources of the Nile, and no one disputed it about that?
Given the political geography in the world, Ethiopia is not the only landlocked country. There are more than forty landlocked countries in the world, including large countries, and some that play an important role in the world, such as: Switzerland, Austria, and Kazakhstan, and not far from Ethiopia there is Uganda, South Sudan, Malawi, and others. These countries did not rebel against the prison of geography, and their location did not prevent them from growing, progressing, and playing a regional and perhaps international role. So why does Ethiopia want to be an exception? Therefore, this Ethiopian rebellion against the facts of geography indicates that Addis Ababa is determined to expand into the vital space of its neighbors at any cost, perhaps in order to play a role that will be revealed in the days to come.
The Ethiopian Prime Minister’s speech alerted public opinion that Addis Ababa is preparing to act in neighboring geographical areas in order to reach warm water. Many analysts said that Abiye Ahmed’s statements indicate that the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea may develop into an armed confrontation in 2024, and this option still exists despite the challenges it faces.
Since Eritrea regained its independence in 1993, Ethiopia has been denied access to the Red Sea after Eritrea seized the ports of Assab and Massawa. Ethiopia did not accept this situation and has been searching for a way to regain access to warm waters ever since. Some may wonder why Ethiopia does not use other ports in neighboring countries, such as the port of Djibouti, which it is using now, or the port of Mombasa in Kenya, or even the port of Port Sudan in Sudan.
In fact, Ethiopia does not need a port to export its trade abroad; This is available in neighboring coastal countries. Addis Ababa wants a port that it can manage itself to strengthen its political and military sovereignty, and to have an active and influential role in securing this vital sea corridor, which is becoming increasingly important based on the new Suez Canal.
The military option to obtain Eritrea’s ports – which Ethiopia knows well – is still on the table and circulating in the Ethiopian strategic mind. But some analysts believe that the time is not right for this option in light of the presence of President Isaias Afwerki, who is a fierce fighter and a pragmatic politician who has a cohesive army driven by the spirit of revolution, nationalism, and hostility towards Ethiopia. But Addis Ababa’s eye on Eritrea’s ports will remain watchful, working silently, and perhaps seeking to contain the Eritrean political system that may take shape in the absence of President Afwerki.
In order to codify the policy of containing Eritrea, Ethiopia is working to weaken Sudan and distract it with a useless political conflict, and supports the establishment of a weak government in Khartoum, taking into account that Sudan is the only country that can influence Eritrea due to the close social and economic relations between the two countries, which hinders the expansion of the Ethiopian monster to absorb the border areas and swallow Asmara.
Berbera Port…the mysterious deal
While all eyes were on the upcoming conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia for the latter’s access to warm waters, the Ethiopian Prime Minister surprised the world with a mysterious agreement with Somaliland, which is not recognized internationally. This agreement includes leasing the port of Berbera in the Red Sea, which strategically overlooks the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Hormuz. The text of the agreement has not been published yet, but the statements of both parties gave general features of this agreement.
The Somaliland regional government confirmed that it allowed Ethiopia to impose its military and commercial sovereignty over the port of Berbera for half a century. This means, in the language of the law, that this land will become the property of the Ethiopian government and under its direct administration, which means that Ethiopia has become a country with coasts on the Red Sea. Its navy, which has been inactive since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, will once again operate on the Red Sea, and Ethiopia will become a partner in all security arrangements for this important waterway. Therefore, we are not only facing an agreement to enhance trade, but rather we are facing an agreement that has major geopolitical and security implications for the region.
The Somaliland government said:Ethiopia promised to recognize Somaliland as an independent state, and this is what Somaliland has not obtained since its separation from Somalia in 1991. On the other hand, a reliable Ethiopian source confirmed that Somaliland will obtain part of the shares of Ethiopian Airlines, which is considered a giant in the field of African air transport. This offer arouses great interest.
This ambiguous agreement sparked a widespread wave of anger and resentment in the countries of the region. The legitimate government of Somalia responded quickly and firmly, as the Somali parliament rejected the agreement and the legitimate government in Mogadishu canceled it. It considered that Somaliland part of Somalia, and that it does not have the legal capacity to sign such an agreement. Somalia also decided to recall its ambassador to Ethiopia, in protest against this act that violates all international laws and norms.
On the other hand, the countries of the region rejected this unilateral agreement, stressing that Somaliland does not have legal authority in this agreement. The Republic of Djibouti was the neighboring country most affected by this agreement, as it will lose huge sums exceeding one billion dollars, which are the fees it received annually from the passage of 95% of Ethiopia’s trade through the port of Djibouti.
Ethiopia’s implicit recognition of Somaliland also obstructs the huge project sponsored by Djiboutian President Ismail Omer Guelleh to unify northern and southern Somalia, which has made important strides in previous years.
While the response of the African Union and IGAD remains ambiguous and timid.
Bullying the International System
The ambiguous agreement faces many challenges, legal and substantive challenges that make it a worthless document in international law. The logic adopted by the legitimate government of Somalia is clear and convincing. Because the so-called “Republic of Somaliland” has no legal legitimacy. But the Somali government cannot do more than protest in continental and international forums, as it is a country that is still in the process of fragile recovery, and its parties have a mixed position on the relationship with Ethiopia.
Also, the international reality after the Gaza War, and Israel’s bullying of all international values and conventions, confirm that the logic of power and favor on the part of the central powers is stronger than international conventions and legal texts that are not supported by force. The sword is more truthful than books.
Because of the international prestige that Ethiopia enjoys, it may proceed with its deal without caring about what is said about it by neighboring countries. There is no doubt that Ethiopia obtained approval from Washington before signing the agreement with Somaliland, because the security of the Red Sea has become an important issue for the United States of America and the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). These countries mainly seek to reduce and control the influence of Russia and China in the region. The United States – which has an important base in Djibouti – could not have had prior knowledge about Ethiopian expansion in the Red Sea. This also means that France has tacit knowledge and approval of this matter.
The Renaissance Dam and the deaf ear policy
At the conclusion of this article, we return to what the Ethiopian Prime Minister said: The Nile and the Red Sea form the basis for the development of his country, and why did he involve the Nile in this strategic conflict? The hidden meaning of this statement is that the Prime Minister wants to say that, in order to gain a foothold on the Red Sea coast, his country will use the same deaf ear policy that it used in managing the Renaissance Dam dossier.
Over the course of a full decade of dialogue and meetings between Ethiopia and the two countries of the corridor and downstream – Sudan and Egypt – Ethiopia never stopped progressing in implementing the Renaissance Dam project until the dam became an unmistakable reality. Egypt and Sudan have raised fundamental concerns about the Renaissance Dam and have presented a set of solutions, but Ethiopia continues to do so and refuses to sign any legally binding document on the filling and operation of the dam.
The reality of the situation confirms that Ethiopia, protected by the central powers and their allies, will follow the same deaf ear policy until it finds a foothold on the Red Sea as it wants. If we look carefully, we will find that the same allies who supported and financed the establishment of the Renaissance Dam are the ones who stand with Ethiopia in its project to access the warm waters of the Red Sea. The meaning is clear.