Delegations, Conferences and Consultations.. Is the War in Sudan about to end?

Sudan Events – Abdul Basit Idris

The war in Sudan has topped the agenda of regional and international talks, and the city of Port Sudan is witnessing many visits that are in the same direction. Is the end of the war and the defuse of the crisis that claimed the lives of thousands, displaced millions of Sudanese and destroyed the infrastructure approaching, or is peace still out of reach?
The most important visit:
The visit of the Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Walid Al-Khuraiji and his meeting with the President of the Sovereignty Council, Lt, Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, in the city of Port Sudan is considered the most important in that it announces the results.
The visit conveyed the invitation of the Kingdom’s leadership to Al-Burhan to resume Jeddah talks.
Al-Khuraiji affirmed in a statement broadcast by the Saudi Press Agency his country’s keenness to restore security and stability to Sudan, and what this requires in terms of calm, prevailing wisdom and self-control, and keenness to resume negotiations, show flexibility and respond to positive and humanitarian initiatives.
The Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister also affirmed his country’s welcome and support for all international and UN efforts aimed at achieving a permanent ceasefire, and for humanitarian efforts aimed at alleviating the suffering of the Sudanese people, which, if combined, would push towards completing what was reached in “Jeddah 1 and Jeddah 2.
This is consistent with the leaks from Sirte about the Sovereign Palace that Al-Burhan affirmed the government’s adherence to Jeddah platform, but affirmed the need to implement what was reached in Jeddah 1 and 2 to immediately start the upcoming talks.
Abiy Ahmed’s visit:

In the context, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Port Sudan and met with President Al-Burhan, who in turn expressed his thanks in a tweet to Abiy Ahmed for declaring his solidarity and his country’s support for Sudan and its people, but sources said that the Ethiopian Prime Minister announced his desire to mediate between Al-Burhan and Hemedti.
Developing the Jeddah Agreement:

In the context, the Sudanese Dialogue Conference hosted by Egypt led to several results, the most important of which was the confirmation of what was reached between the SAF and the Rapid Support Forces in the Jeddah Agreement.
A new paragraph was added to this item, which is “developing this agreement in line with the variables War”.
Arranging Papers :

The President of the Sovereignty Council TSC,Lt. Gen.Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, has begun to be open to any internal and external efforts to stop the war, but he still adheres to the conditions for proceeding with any new talks, most notably the exit of Hemeti’s militia from citizens’ homes, the withdrawal of all foreign mercenaries fighting with the militia, and the cessation of its attacks on villages and cities.
In the context of Al-Burhan’s readiness to deal with external movements, he rearranged his papers, as he promoted his office manager, Maj. Gen. Al-Sadiq Ismail, to the rank of Lt. Gen.and appointed him as his special presidential envoy ,with this appointment, Al-Burhan is pushing those he trusts to undertake sensitive external tasks, some of which appear to be related to negotiation issues and others with a military aspect.
The negotiations with Hemeti’s militia in Jeddah forum are led by Maj. Gen. Abu Bakr Faqiri, who is close to the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the SAF, Lt. Gen.Al-Kabashi.
He was the director of his office and worked as a member of the delegation of the Military Council negotiating with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC)which led to the partnership agreement and reaching the constitutional document.
He was also a member of the talks that ended with the Juba Agreement. By appointing Lt. Gen. Al-Sadiq as a presidential envoy and Maj. Gen.Abu Bakr taking over the talks, Al-Burhan has tightened his grip on the course of the negotiation process and clearly defined the channels of communication with him that express him. It also reveals that the issue of the ceasefire, its security arrangements, and ending the rebellion are given top priority.
With the arrangement of priorities, Al-Burhan awaits Two steps he may have seen as important before returning to the Jeddah platform: the first is the extent to which the mediation adheres to the conditions he presented to the Saudi minister, and the second is achieving a military victory, as evidenced by his saying in his last open letter, “We are advocates of peace, but we will not go to negotiations that diminish the prestige of the Sudanese army SAF.
Pessimism and warnings:

In the latest development, the African Union AU decided on Wednesday to activate its committee to communicate with Burhan and Hemedti to declare an immediate ceasefire “without conditions.”
The union had formed a special committee for Sudan headed by Bin Shamas and another headed by President Museveni to bring together Burhan and Hemedti.
With all these movements, visits and political conferences, there is no end in sight to the war in Sudan, as confirmed by the head of Justice and Equality Movement ( JEM) Jibril Ibrahim, to (Asharq Al-Awsat), saying: “Reaching a ceasefire in Sudan is still long.”

In contrast, the Vice President of the Transitional Sovereignty Council TSC warned that the collapse of Sudan would lead to the collapse of all countries in the Horn of Africa.
Aqar said in a speech before the workshop “On the Rules and Guiding Principles of Human Rights in the Context of Combating Terrorism” that the collapse of Sudan would result in several global problems, including organized crime and extremism, in addition to threatening security along the Red Sea coast.
Data Study:

The war has led to the killing of tens of thousands and the forced displacement of about 10 million people internally by the militia, and 2 million fled to neighboring countries.
It has also caused systematic destruction by the militia and foreign mercenaries of the economic infrastructure and the displacement of villagers from their homes and farms. According to Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim, the war has disrupted production and declined government revenues. However, the SAF still holds the initiative in various theaters of operations. According to military experts, the army still maintains its ability and strength, and its plan to defeat the rebellion is still proceeding effectively and in a way that will enable it to win the war, not specific battles.
However, there are also data that may need to be taken into account to predict the possible step in the event that a decision is assumed to return to negotiations.
The first is military capacity and the surrounding influences in light of what Lt. Gen.Al-Burhan announced about parties working to deprive Sudan of its right to obtain the weapons it needs to enable the SAF to carry out its national duties. The second is the economic and social capacity to withstand, as the war requires budgets. Huge and open spending, and the third is the strength of alliances and foreign relations and their effectiveness in winning battles on the ground and in diplomacy.
These are data that may have been essential for making the decision, setting the negotiation plan, and determining the strategic goals to be achieved within the framework of winning the war through negotiation, and the second tactical goals that you can give up.
A glimmer of hope:

Political analyst Ibrahim Othman told (Sudan Events ) that he sees a glimmer of hope in the possibility of resuming negotiations in Jeddah and making a real breakthrough that paves the way for stopping the war. Osman believes that after more than a year of war and the destruction and conspiracies it has revealed, the SAF and government need to reconsider several data to make a decisive decision.