What is Plan B and What is its Fate? (2/2)

As I See It 

By Adel El-Baz

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In the first part of this article, we explained that Plan B involves mobilizing a million fighters and inciting the tribes in their strongholds in western Sudan against what the last Janjaweed considers the army’s strongholds in northern Sudan. The goal is to transform the ongoing war into a civil war. This plan disregards the international community and is personally led by the Janjaweed in the field.

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Opting for Plan B implies the failure of Plan A, unless there’s a reason to shift strategies. So, what was Plan A that failed? As is apparent, Plan A aimed to seize power through a military coup or a swift war. This plan failed as the rebellion could not take control of the country’s leadership by either means, despite claiming control of 70% of the country.

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Under Plan A, hundreds of thousands of Janjaweed fighters were armed to the teeth and controlled all the key areas around the capital, including its entrances and exits. They had access to inside information on the state, its armaments, and capabilities. As the war progressed, they brought in hundreds of thousands of foreign mercenaries, supported with unlimited weapons and funds from external sponsors. Despite all this, Plan A failed. So, what is new about Plan B that promises success? Especially since there have been changes since the failure of the first plan.

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The first change concerns the army, which will not be caught off guard this time. It is now more prepared than ever for any calculated or uncalculated move, with its forces ready to act across multiple fronts. The army is better armed, enjoys greater support from both the people and external allies, and fights alongside a united nation (one people, one army). The army has regained the effectiveness of its air force and now has access to advanced weaponry and unlimited ammunition. Additionally, it has gained significant experience in managing urban warfare. Tens of thousands of reinforcements and armed movement forces are now achieving victories in Darfur. The army has preserved its core forces and is now technologically superior. In short, the army is in a much stronger position than it was at the start of the war.

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The second change is the state of the militia, which has lost most of its highly trained commanders and soldiers, numbering in the thousands. It has lost most of its camps and is now suffering from a shortage of ammunition. The last Janjaweed even prohibited the use of ammunition for celebrations. Pressure on its financiers and supporters is escalating, with many withdrawing after the international community exposed their involvement. Borders with Chad have been closed by joint forces, and soon the Adré crossing will be controlled. Egypt is also preparing to permanently close its border with Libya after the militia foolishly threatened to bomb the High Dam! The international community and global media have now recognized the militia’s brutality and barbarism, leading to ongoing condemnations and sanctions against its leaders. The militia, now scattered over vast areas, is increasingly fragmented, and with the liberation of Jebel Moya, it is surrounded without access to weapons or supplies except by looting defenseless civilians. The last Janjaweed leader admitted to his forces that they are now cut off from supplies.

The militia’s allies in the Taqaddum movement have abandoned them, distancing themselves significantly from defending the militia. After the last Janjaweed leader delivered his speech two days ago, they remained awkwardly silent, having shattered their claim that the war was caused by the Framework Agreement. The militia has also lost most of its financial resources from businesses and gold mines, leaving only the (Singu) mines under its control, which will soon be taken, leaving the militia exposed.

Given the army’s strengthened position and the militia’s deteriorating state, how could Plan B succeed where Plan A failed?

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Plan B lacks any elements of success, ensuring its inevitable failure. Why? Plan B seeks to shift the nature of the conflict into a full-blown civil war by raising the issue of tribal strongholds—a concept that no longer holds weight. It has become clear that the rebels do not have any tribes fighting alongside them. Only individuals and a few leaders from specific tribes have been bought by the Dagalo family. Out of nearly six hundred tribes in Sudan, fewer than five can be counted as siding with the army. Today, almost all Sudanese tribes are fighting under the army’s banner against the militia. So, what tribal strongholds and civil war could arise when these tribes are now fighting side by side for a common goal—defeating the Dagalo militia?

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One of the key features of the plan is to mobilize a million fighters, or so it claims. Where would this Janjaweed leader find a million fighters? Everyone knows that the youth of the tribes in the militia’s strongholds are fleeing rather than joining their battles. Yakoub, for example, begged for reinforcements until he was killed, but no one came to his aid. The tribes have realized the senselessness of the war that the Dagalo family is dragging them into, with no cause or grievance! The sources of mercenaries have dried up as the militia can no longer pay them, and southern mercenaries have stopped fighting, surrendering by the hundreds every day to the army. Where will the Janjaweed recruit, train, and arm a million fighters when the army is advancing on all fronts?

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The million-fighter scare tactic won’t intimidate anyone. Even if a miracle occurred and the Janjaweed managed to assemble a million fighters, they should remember that they are fighting against 45 million—the entire Sudanese people. The people are stronger and far more numerous than mercenaries fighting without a cause.

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The last feature of Plan B is that it will be personally led by the last Janjaweed leader… Oh, what a grand plan! A plan led by a commander who lacks even the most basic tactics for urban warfare or civil wars. This will be one of the primary reasons for its failure and downfall. Even with foreign advisors, support from progressive clients, and Gulf financiers, or if they mobilized all of Africa’s Janjaweed and mercenaries, their plot will ultimately fail, for God does not guide the treachery of those who betray their own countries.