Will Trump Achieve in Sudan What Biden and Harris Could Not?

It’s surprising to see that even Great Britain is uncertain about Donald Trump’s victory and the direction his upcoming four-year term will take. According to the BBC, the UK’s Foreign Ministry expressed sentiments resembling “a wake-up call” for the entire department, similar to a Sudanese idiom for a shock that stirs everyone to action.

The same sentiments were echoed from the other side of the world. Voice of America (VOA), after surveying media outlets across South Africa, reported a widespread lack of confidence in what Trump might do for Africa in his new term, with analysts showing little enthusiasm for the possibility of change compared to his first term.

Analysts across both the southern and northern hemispheres have largely agreed that Donald Trump is a pragmatic leader whose next moves are unpredictable. This unpredictability, they argue, gives him an advantage over leaders with more readable strategies in their foreign or domestic policies.

VOA’s review of African media and officials found that Trump’s win over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris dominated news cycles across the continent on Wednesday. The coverage reflected concerns many Africans feel about Trump’s return to office. Editorials, such as one published by “Business Day” in South Africa, highlighted concerns, with headlines like “Trump’s Return Signals a Tougher American Approach to Africa.” Another publication, Sunday Times, surveyed readers on their anxieties about Trump’s return to the White House, where he elicits mixed reactions across Africa. While some recall his controversial remarks about African nations in his first term, others view him as a strong, forceful leader.

Steven Gruzd, a political analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs, told VOA, “Trump paid little attention to Africa during his first term, and we shouldn’t expect that to change.” He added, “Africa won’t be a priority for Trump’s second administration by any measure, and we shouldn’t expect much engagement from him.”

Similarly, Asanda Nguishing, an independent analyst from Cape Town, believes Trump’s policies could impact Africa’s trade, with potential declines in South African exports to the U.S. She also expressed concerns that public health funding, particularly for reproductive health, might be affected under the upcoming Republican administration.

Any U.S. reduction in UN contributions could also have serious consequences for Africa, Nguishing pointed out, as Trump’s “America First” stance will likely have repercussions on Africa.

Across the Atlantic, British officials were also left wondering what Trump’s victory could mean for the UK. The BBC reported that a Trump victory poses challenges for the UK due to his unpredictability. Foreign officials worldwide are preparing for another unpredictable four years of U.S.-UK relations.

The BBC article went on to discuss the British diplomatic successes in securing engagements with Trump and his inner circle, such as a dinner between Prime Minister David Lammy and Trump in New York in September and an early congratulatory phone call from the UK Prime Minister after surviving an assassination attempt. Sources close to the Foreign Minister indicated that British diplomacy efforts over the months have been aimed at establishing closer understanding and ties with Trump’s circle.

But, it is widely accepted that Trump intends to act on his campaign promises and will likely prioritize U.S. economic interests and those of American businesses. In his inaugural address in January 2017, he emphasized that “every decision… will be made for the benefit of American workers and American families.”

Thus, the potential of Trump’s administration to deliver change in Sudan must be viewed through the lens of his emphasis on economic interests and his commitment to American companies. Would Sudan offer any enticing opportunities that could motivate Trump to press certain actors into halting their support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militias and thus bring the Sudanese conflict closer to resolution?

Perhaps the answer to this question will determine whether Trump might accomplish what Biden and his envoy Tom Perriello have, so far, been unable to achieve in Sudan.