Factors Behind the Continuation of the War and the Escalation of the Humanitarian Catastrophe

Since the outbreak of the war between the Sudanese army and the “Rapid Support Forces” militia in April 2023, Sudan has been witnessing an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe, which ranks among the worst globally in recent decades. The causes of the severity of this catastrophe are not limited to the destruction caused by the war itself, but are also influenced by the war’s comprehensive nature and its vast geographic spread. It spans across a vast area of Sudan, which covers 1,861,484 square kilometers, making it the third-largest country in Africa after Algeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and one of the twenty largest countries in the world by area.

The intensity of the crisis is further exacerbated by Sudan’s population density, with approximately 48.1 million people, more than half of whom—around 25.5 million—are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance due to the war. Additionally, there are 12.6 million internally displaced persons and refugees, forced to flee their homes and country due to the conflict. Despite the fact that the conflict has lasted less than a year and a half, the humanitarian disaster has reached unprecedented levels, surpassing similar conflicts. For example, in Syria, the number of displaced persons reached 6.7 million in 2021 after ten years of war, with 12.1 million people affected by food insecurity in 2023. In Sudan, however, approximately 26 million people are facing the threat of famine, representing the largest global food crisis in the last half-century. The estimated deaths due to hunger are 2.5 million in just four months (June–October 2024), which is twice the number of starvation victims during the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia over four years.

The reasons for the exacerbation of the humanitarian catastrophe and the prolonged duration of the war in Sudan are not limited to the warring parties alone. Other factors, notably the international community’s failure to take a serious and unified stance and the negative role of some civilian political groups, also contribute.

At the international level, it has become clear that certain regional powers and specific countries in the region are providing unconditional support to the “Rapid Support Forces” militia, despite its involvement in serious crimes and violations across Sudan, including the recent wave of brutal violence ignited by this militia in the Al-Jazeera State in recent weeks. These powers have international influence and the ability to affect the global scene, which allows them to try to play the role of mediator, while simultaneously continuing to support the militia’s efforts to prolong the war. This has contributed to turning international and regional peace efforts into a vicious circle that leads to no tangible progress.

The involvement of these regional powers is not limited to fueling the war in Sudan. There have also been reports about the relationship between the Israeli “Mossad” and the “Rapid Support Forces” militia. In recent weeks, there have been reports of large shipments of weapons and air defense equipment being sent from Israel to the “Rapid Support Forces” via North West Africa.