What Should We Do If the Migrant Destinations Go Dark?

As I See

Adel El-Baz

1

The question I posed after the outbreak of the Gulf War remains unanswered:

What will we do? Where will we turn when all doors have been shut in our faces? What sources of income can we rely on?

Especially now that over 70% of Sudanese currently depend on remittances from relatives residing in the Gulf.

With the surge in displacement following the recent Janjaweed war, migration and asylum rates have reached unprecedented levels, with the number of migrants surpassing three million.

In Egypt alone, there are now more than three million Sudanese refugees and migrants.

These people have lost their income sources entirely and are now wholly dependent on their relatives working abroad, particularly in the Gulf. Therefore, a full-scale war in that region would severely worsen the economic conditions of Sudanese communities abroad, who are already carrying the burden of supporting both themselves and their families back home.

According to World Bank data, remittances to Sudan in 2023 reached around one billion dollars, while some local sources estimate that the figure surged to four billion dollars after the war broke out.

These remittances are the lifeline of the Sudanese economy, and any disruption in the Gulf would weaken or completely halt them.

It is a massive figure that reflects how deeply dependent Sudan is on external sources, and how fragile the domestic situation truly is.

2

Any instability in the Gulf—especially in countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar—will lead to:

The cessation of remittance flows, worsening the foreign currency crisis.

Reduced job opportunities, leading to mass layoffs and potential deportations.

Added pressure on Sudan’s labor market, which is already incapable of absorbing returnees.

Accelerated inflation and a further deterioration of the Sudanese pound amid the absence of stable cash inflows.

Disruptions in supply chains via the Red Sea and Gulf, threatening access to fuel, medicine, and wheat.

As the war escalates and possibly spreads into Gulf countries, unexpected security decisions may be issued affecting migrant communities. These could result in deportations or a reduction in their numbers for reasons related to national security.

3

There is no doubt we are living through a dangerous and delicate moment in our history.

Any new military escalation in the Gulf will not be far from affecting us—whether as a state, citizens, or migrants. This is why many Sudanese viewed the conflict between Iran and Israel as a direct threat to their safety and future, not just a distant regional crisis.

This is a defining moment—one that allows no room for negligence or delay.

If migrant destinations are under threat, resources are drying up, and external support is faltering amid a volatile region, then we must seriously and courageously ask ourselves:

Do we have a national plan to protect our citizens abroad? Have we prepared real economic alternatives if the flow of remittances dries up?

Or will we continue living on the edge, waiting for others’ destinies to drag us down into the depths of their crises?

If the Gulf ignites once more, it won’t be just the flames that burn us… but also our illusions of dependence on others. The fragility of our state will be laid bare, and our inability to protect our people—inside and outside the country—will only grow.

We must either get ahead of the storm with a plan—or be swept away by it without a trace.