American security expert and political analyst Cameron Hudson issued a stern warning about the consequences of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, fueled externally and expanded internally, which could have catastrophic repercussions for the Horn of Africa and neighboring countries, eventually leading to illegal migration and terrorism reaching Europe.
Speaking at a UN Security Council session on Sudan on Monday, Hudson stressed that the risks of division and disintegration, with their catastrophic potential for death and displacement, are real and will worsen if decisive steps are not taken to end the fighting. He added: “The effects of this outcome will not be confined to Sudan; they will destabilize the already fragile Horn of Africa and send waves of refugees and extremists through the Sahel, the Red Sea, and the Mediterranean.”
Hudson recalled previous warnings about the humanitarian crisis in El Fasher that were largely ignored, resulting in nearly a thousand days of fighting. During this period, the UN warned of potential mass atrocities and state collapse. He questioned whether the international community will move beyond mere acknowledgment of the crisis to hold perpetrators and their supporters accountable, provide hope for victims, and compel parties toward peace.
He cited the RSF’s assault on El Geneina, West Darfur, at the start of the war, which the Biden administration described as genocide, noting that insufficient global response allowed the situation to escalate.
Hudson highlighted the devastating impact on El Fasher, where the population dropped from around one million to between 70,000 and 100,000, with approximately 150,000 people unaccounted for. Thousands, possibly tens of thousands, were killed, and RSF forces burned and buried bodies to conceal their crimes.
He emphasized that RSF has now turned its strategic focus to the neighboring Kordofan states. Recent weeks have seen sieges following a series of attacks on a kindergarten, a UN compound, and a military hospital, resulting in over 100 deaths, roughly half of them children. The siege now affects Dalang and Kadugli, already facing declared famine, leaving residents with no means of survival.
Hudson warned that if no action is taken, a large-scale battle for control of Al-Obeid, North Kordofan’s capital, could erupt, marking the largest and most destructive engagement yet, due to its strategic location and the presence of over one million vulnerable civilians.
He described the evolution of the war into a modern conflict using drones, precision-guided munitions, armored personnel carriers, and advanced technology, replacing older conventional weapons. While intended to reduce civilian casualties, these weapons have instead increased risks, particularly in urban areas, expanding the war beyond traditional frontlines.
Hudson criticized the use of weapons supplied by about twelve countries in violation of the 2004 arms embargo, highlighting the UAE’s role in facilitating the RSF through an extensive air bridge and providing mercenaries. He stressed that ignoring foreign facilitation of the war makes all of us complicit.
Finally, he underscored the need to consider complex local drivers of conflict—ethnic, social, and resource-related—which have been exacerbated by the war and will continue to pose risks even after hostilities end.
