An analytical report published by Middle East Eye and written by David Hearst asserts that the Middle East is currently undergoing a “tectonic shift,” marked by major regional powers—chiefly Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Algeria—reclaiming the initiative in confronting schemes aimed at the “fragmentation of states” pursued by regional and international actors over the past decade.
Clashing Agendas and the Lifting of the Veil
The report explains that Riyadh sensed an existential threat as attempts to dominate maritime routes and strategic chokepoints reached its immediate borders. The takeover of Yemen’s port city of Mukalla served as a wake-up call, prompting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to take decisive military and political steps. These measures led to the dismantling of the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council’s influence and forced a sudden, comprehensive withdrawal of Abu Dhabi-aligned forces from Yemen, including from the island of Socotra.
The Collapse of the Proxy Project
According to Hearst, the quiet collapse of the “Little Sparta” project—a reference to the UAE—did not stop in Yemen but extended into the Horn of Africa. Saudi pressure coincided with a decision by the Somali government to end the Emirati military presence, in response to violations of national sovereignty. These violations were epitomized by the smuggling of Yemeni leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi through Somali territory—an incident Mogadishu and Riyadh viewed as crossing “red lines.”
The End of the Era of “Unilateral Interventions”
The report argues that this shift represents a resounding failure of the strategy of “fragmenting Arab states” adopted by Israel and the UAE to secure long-term commercial and military interests. Hearst notes that Saudi Arabia has finally chosen to act as an independent leader of the Sunni axis, potentially paving the way for a new regional alliance including Turkey and Egypt. Such an alliance would aim to protect the “unity and territorial integrity of nation-states,” free from the external interventions that have torn apart countries such as Sudan, Libya, and Yemen.
Geopolitical Bottom Line
The article concludes that the United States, Israel, and their regional allies may have overreached—winning tactical battles but losing the strategic war to what it describes as a “genuine” Arab state awakening. Saudi Arabia’s current stance sends a clear message: the era of granting “open-ended mandates” to smaller powers to meddle with the region’s resources and destinies has come to an end.
