Abiye’s Quest for Seaport: Is It Ethiopian-Eritrean war?! (2-2)

By: Mansour Suleiman

Shortly after assuming the prime minister’s office, Abiye Ahmed began to strongly criticize the experience of federal rule launched by the Tigray Liberation Front in the 1990s, considering it the basis of Ethiopia’s problems. He then proceeded to target all members of the Tigray Front in various state departments, either by excluding them from senior positions in the army and security, or by targeting them on corruption charges.
It was also not surprising that the Amhara elites were the group most closely consistent with Abiye Ahmed’s new orientations, because abolishing the federal system and returning to the previous central system allows it to regain its position and gains in previous eras.
This matter was also welcomed by President Isaias Afwerki, as he had a negative position on the system of ethnic federalism followed in Ethiopia. Afwerki once stated: “The conspiracy against Eritrea emerged from this project – ethnic federalism – and there was no reason for the border dispute. Federalism was just an ill-intentioned philosophy aimed at dividing the people in order to rule them.”
One of the results of this rapprochement between these three parties was the emergence of a new alliance that includes the federal government in Ethiopia led by Abiye Ahmed, the Eritrean government led by Isaias Afwerki, and the Amhara elites through the “Fano” militia.
When the Ethiopian government declared war on the Tigray region on November 4, 2020, under the pretext of restoring the rule of law, the military operation included these same three parties: The Ethiopian National Defense Forces, the Eritrean army, and the special forces of the Amhara region and its militia.
Third: Abiye Ahmed’s statement reflects tension in his relations with the same parties he allied with earlier in the Tigray war.

Abiye Ahmed previously worked to exclude the Tigray Liberation Front by signing the peace agreement with Eritrea in 2018, and alone signed the “Pretoria Peace Agreement” in November 2022, with the Tigray Liberation Front, without involving the Amhara or the Eritrean government.
This is what made the Amhara feel that the federal government used them in its war against the Tigray Front without picking any gains from it.
What is worse is that, in April 2023, the Ethiopian government issued a Resolution requiring the dissolution of all regional militias – including the Fano militia – and the establishment of a single central force at the federal level, which ultimately produced widespread unrest, that led to the deterioration of the security situation in the Amhara region. Particularly after the Amharic Fano militia took control of several cities and areas in the region, which prompted the Ethiopian government to declare a state of emergency there.
Another war in the region
On the other hand, the Eritrean regime – Abiye Ahmed’s former ally in the Tigray war – took a similar position on the Pretoria Peace Agreement. There are frequent reports that the Amharic Fano militia has received support and training from Eritrea.
In addition, the Eritrean Ministry of Information’s comment on Abiye Ahmed’s statements also reflects signs of a silent crisis between the two governments, as it published a brief statement saying: There have been many conversations – actual and virtual- that have been raised recently about water issues and access to sea ports.
Although these statements confused observers concerned with this issue – according to the statement – the government of Eritrea reiterated that, as always, it will not be drawn into this type of rumormonger.
In light of the above, the question arises: whether the statements of the Ethiopian Prime Minister herald the outbreak of another war in the region?
It is clear that Abiye Ahmed’s statements were not haphazard, but rather the culmination of a new alliance whose features have begun to appear since he signed the Pretoria Peace Agreement with the Tigray Front.
Since the signing of the agreement, the Amhara region, the second largest region in Ethiopia in terms of population, has witnessed widespread unrest, and the Amhara “Fano” militia still controls some of its regions.
In addition, these statements can be seen as a means to mobilize political support for Abiye Ahmed’s government, particularly since the issue of Ethiopia obtaining a sea port is of great interest among the Ethiopian people.
The statements can also be considered another indication of the disintegration of the political alliance that linked Isaias Afwerki and Abiye Ahmed during the Tigray war.
It is likely that the relationship between them will end in one of two things: either the relationship will return to the tense atmosphere it was in (2001-2018) before the signing of the peace agreement in 2018, and the two countries will engage in “proxy wars” aimed at destabilizing the internal situation in each of them; Or the two countries will enter into a new war, as was the case between 1998 and 2001.