President Al Burhan and the anonymous scenarios

As I see it

Adil Elbaz 

1
The campaign spearheaded by numerous quarters calling on President Burhan to step down, has not in fact started with the incursion of the Janjaweed into Medani, nor will it end with this intrusion. I did an inventory of these quarters and it was clear for me throughout the follow up that they could be divided into four categories. The first category is the one that continued casting doubt since the first day he assumed the presidency. This category did not stop and pursued the position which they have never abandoned at any moment ever. This category has taken position as regard the way al Burhan manages the affairs of the state in its variant ramifications after the revolution and also ding the alliance with Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) as well as after the coup d’état up to the eruption of the war.
2
The second category initiated its campaign after the outbreak of the war and continued unleashing accusations, sometimes accusation of failure to handle the battles, others accusation of treason and plotting against the Sudanese army and even against the Sudanese people. These two groups who are supportive of the army in its war against the Janjaweed and they do differentiate between the army on the one hand and the President on the other. That is why they demand the immediate relief of the president so that things will get straightened for going to war, defeating the Janjaweed. This category has opted for using the media to mobilizing people and addressed its messages to sectors within the army with the view to bring down president Al Burhan.
3
The third groups are well known as they have carried their guns and their weapons aimed at getting rid of president Al Burhan since the first moment of the morning of April 15th. They classified Al Burhan as the enemy number one, wanted dead of alive, the fate of which will end the war and the country and they will take over the country and power. And when they failed to achieve this goal and it became clear to them that this was not possible militarily through confrontation of the army, and when their coup attempt failed and they lost hope of having control of the state, they turned to the islamists hoping to convince them into ending support for Al Burhan and work for getting rid of him and securing a new alliance. but the islamists sent them back in disappointment, as they are aware of the political and military complexity of the scene in the country, knowing that this complexity could not be resolved by overthrowing President ‘al Burhan.
4
The fourth category has hidden behind the slogan of (No for War). This is a group that did not call overtly for overturning the president Al Burhan but they nevertheless called for ending the war period, without any preconditions and, for a total submission to the will of the Janjaweed and for implementing their agenda. They are well aware the president could not stop the war without the clear conditions agreed upon in the Jeddah
Forum. Thus through this misguided demand they were aiming to isolate al Burhan but via different ploy. They are aware that the people and he army would not accept any equation that would reinstate the Janjaweed in the public life and reintegrate them within the Sudanese Army. They are also well aware that any step by al Buran in that direction will bring him down as head of state. This category relief on foreign pressure to be exercised for overthrowing Al Burhan as head of state. Thus this groups continued hectic expeditions from one capital to another, provoking them against Al Burhan, inviting international and regional organizations to exercise the utmost possible pressure for reaching the same end, via their own method.
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These are the four categories, each of which works in its own way and has its own starting points, and the link between them is the unity of the goal, which is to isolate President Al-Burhan, through continuous campaigns that do not stop, only to resume again seizing any of the varied junctures of the war. The objective of these campaigns is to convince Sudanese citizens that the whole problem is in the person of Al Burhan.
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Thus the point to be made is that all these four categories have failed to achieve their overarching objective which is (overthrowing Al Burhan) despite relentlessness campaigns and in spite of using various tools and methods to achieve it. They could not kill Al Burhan; they could not convince the army into bringing him down by means of a military takeover or other methods. Al Burhan thus continued since coming out of the Army General Command’s Headquarters, touring the various army divisions and camps, never has he been hurt nor was there even a slogan shouted save the one saying (Let Loose the Bridle)! They have not been able to convince people to form an overriding current against him which simply reflect the failure of the media campaign to mobilize the people against him. They also failed to materialize plans aimed at undermining his regional and intentional legitimacy, in spite of repeated attempts by both (FFC) and the Janjaweed. He continued to exercise the power vested on the president in his interaction inside all region corridors and within the UN and the security council and all other regional organizations.
Thus the question arises why have these groups failed to achieve this golden goal, despite all the resources employed in the battle against the president and the time it took, and why has Al-Burhan remained steadfast in his position leading the war?
These four groups did not pause for a moment to answer this objective basic question, which is: Why did these efforts, brought together by one goal and from different locations, have failed to bear fruits? Why hasn’t President Burhan’s position shaken among the people, the army, or the world?
No one has tried to come closer to answering this question, not because it is a difficult question to answer but, rather, because the answer would reveal the extent of the dilemma into which these groups will plunge, when and if they have the courage and objectivity to answer the question honestly and with an open mind.
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I will carefully try to answer that question here. The people have come to realize Al Burhan at this moment is the symbol of the state and that any attempt to destabilize this symbol now in these turmoil of war, regardless of the opinion about it, would mean pushing the country into ambiguous scenarios. The people have come out of their current experience, that of the “Just Fall away” with a lesson which is that the fall of the head of state without knowing what awaits the people tomorrow is just a tried and tested risk that has led us to where we are at present, and it is stupidity to repeat the same experience twice in less than five years.
Suppose that the people rose up tomorrow and removed President Burhan, what would be the scenario for the next day? No one knows…. This means going into the unknown.!! The people who have endured the disasters of this war so far do not want the country to go completely into the unknown. They still hope that the army is capable of victory if it remains cohesive despite the fall of the cities and garrisons. Therefore, the people are patient because they do not know the features of that unknown.
There is a crucial question, which is the question of legitimacy. President Al-Burhan derives his legitimacy from a constitutional document that the world recognized, regardless of its opinion, and based on it he gained his legitimacy even after the October 2021 coup. The world did not delegitimize him and continued to deal with him as the legitimate president of the country up until now. Therefore, any change without consensus, especially if the change comes through a coup d’état, then there will be no difference between those who turned against him and the Janjaweed. The argument is that there was a rebellion against a president whose legitimacy was recognized in both cases, as is the case now.

8
The army knows that changing its commander in the midst of war will be disastrous and its consequences are unknown. Any movement within the army now may not succeed, and military coups usually fail in moments of tension and no one guarantees the consequences. Will the army remain united without fissure within it?
Change within the army now is either carried out by junior officers or by the army leadership. The army leadership knows the risk of making change now and does not guarantee the scenario of the next day, and it itself stands for a long time before moving to ask what is the thing that it was unable to do under the administration of President Burhan and with him, and it is capable of doing so, that it could accomplish now by the planned coup?
Junior officers can be spurred by their enthusiasm, but it would be a great risk for unknown, enthusiastic and perhaps angry young men to jump to power now, without experience, agenda, or project, and ignorant of everything about running the state and managing the war… This is also a scenario that will lead us into the unknown.
The world knows that President Al-Burhan still enjoys the trust of the army and the people, and he is in charge of the situation in the country and can reach an understanding with him. The world does not want the current tensions in the country to escalate by further adding fuel to the fire if a change occurs targeting Al-Burhan at this moment that is witnessing major turning points in the situation. The issue of war and negotiation efforts. The world is still certain that Burhan can lead a negotiation process that results in peace in Sudan, even if it is cautious and adheres to his conditions. Therefore, the world will not risk or rush to support any change at the present moment while the country is heading for difficult negotiations.
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Thus, it is clear to us and to the four groups above that no one wants to go to the unknown scenarios that we have detailed, neither the people nor the army nor the world. It is better for the people to remain supportive of their army and the army to back its leadership and for the world to remain recognizant of the legitimacy of President Al Burhan until this disaster is over and out, and then we plunge into rearranging the terrain, considering all its political and military details.