The Nightmare Year… Millions of Sudanese Bid 2023 Farewell, Waiting to Return Home

The war in the Sudan is now entering its 8th month, without any drastic change in the military map in Khartoum, the national capital

By : Al Nour Ahmed Al Nour

Khartoum- Sudanese are bidding farewell to 2023, a year full of bloods and tears. This is a year that began with a serious political polarization among the different political rivals with regards to the Framework Agreement for the resolution of the political crisis. This situation spurred a difference between the Armed Forces and the Rapid support forces and ultimately led to a war in mid-April. Khartoum the national capital has never witnessed such a war in a hundred years. It then expoaned to cover each of Kordufan states and Darfur states, leaving hundred dead and millions displaced. But it threatens to fragment the whole country, the Sudan.

The political analyst Abdul Gadir Hassan has described the year 2023 as a sad, tragic and nightmarish month on all Sudanese. He explained that the wars during the previous decades in the Sudan used to be in the peripheries of the country but this time and for the first time in a century, the war has knocked at the doors of their national capital Khartoum.
Crisis Accumulation
Sudan entered this year loaded with protracted crisis since April 2021 on the aftermath of the coup detat led by the President of the Sovereign Council, the Commander of the Armed Forces, lieutenant General Abdul Fatah Al Burhan, leading an alliance of the Forces for Freedom and Change – the Central Council. He dissolved the Sovereign council and the Council of Ministers and declared a country-wide state of emergency.
The then prime Minister Abdallah Hamdouk signed a document for resolution of the crisis with the military component at the Sovereign Council level, but the civilian political forces that used to be the pillar of the government, rejected that document of Hamdouk, thus forcing him to resign his post as prime minister.
But in December 2022, the forces for Freedom and Change – the Central council, reached an agreement, A Framework Agreement, with the military components and Burhan signed that document along with his Deputy, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, lt Gen Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (Hemaidti).
It was planned that the final signature of this Political Agreement would be done in April this year, but at the same time the Interim Constitution was planned to be signed on the 6th of the same month, after which a transitional civilian government would be formed to run the country for two years, after which elections would be conducted.
The tripartite mechanism which groups each of the Untied Nations the African Union and the IGAD, along with the Quartet which included the united states of America, UK, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, facilitated the negotiations between the military component and the civil forces.
Political Quibbling
Influential political forces in the Sudanese scene have rejected the political document top of which were the Forces for Freedom and Change-the Democratic Block, which groups the main armed movements as well as other influential forces. This produced political splinter with the country.
The political complexity in the country was further exacerbated by Al Burhan, and behind him the military establishment, insisting they would not sign the final Political Agreement unless a date is set for the inclusion of the RSF into the Army. A workshop was organized for the reform of the military and security establishments. In that workshop the army demanded that the merger be within two years, but the RSF said the period should be within 20 years, thus the army representatives pulled out of the workshop. Tension increased further in the country.
The crisis aggravated further when the FFC- the Centeral council took the side of the RSF in face of the Army and the FFC-democratic Block. In the meantime, the other left leaning forces rejected any settlement with the army altogether, accusing their former political allies, within the ruling coalition, of seeking to forge a new partnership with the army and it labelled those involved in the enterprise as the” Soft landing Forces “.
These alliances among the Sudanese opponents and the tension between the Army and the RSF led to the abrupt eruption of the war in mid-April which the military establishment said was only an attempt by Hemaidti to kidnap power through a military arrangement with the baking of regional forces. The army also accused the UN Special representative to the Sudan, Volker Perthes, of contributing by fanning the situation when he attempted to impose certain limited political force that enjoyed no popular support and no deep social depth, and hand them the reign of power at the expense of other forces.

Repercussions of the war
After 8 months of war, there was no major shift in the military map in the capital, Khartoum, but the fighting expanded to include parts of the Kordufan states, and since late last October, the Rapid Support Forces took control of the capitals of the states of South, West and Central Darfur, and has remained outside their control in the region was only El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur State.
Sudan is now classified as witnessing the largest internal displacement in the world, and the United Nations Office for Humanitarian Affairs in Sudan said that more than 12,000 people have been killed in the war since its outbreak.
It was also stated that 6.6 million people fled their homes, including 5.3 million who were internally displaced in 4,473 locations in the country’s safe states, while 1.3 million people crossed into Chad, Egypt, Central Africa, Ethiopia and South Sudan.
In its latest report, the World Food Program issued new warnings of an imminent famine, threatening 18 million Sudanese by next year’s dry season.

In addition to the deterioration of the security and food conditions, and the spread of epidemic diseases such as cholera and dengue fever, the disruption of schooling threatens an entire generation, and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has warned that 19 million Sudanese children in various educational levels are out of school, and that the country is on the verge of becoming home to the worst educational crisis in the world.
Huge economic losses
Regarding the losses in the economy, infrastructure and services, economist Adel Abdel Aziz estimates that these amounted to more than 108 billion dollars, including 15.8 billion dollars in gross domestic product. The losses of public infrastructure in the civil aviation sector are estimated at 3 billion dollars, as well as roads, bridges, and the headquarters of ministries and government institutions, with 10 billion dollars.
The economic expert also estimates the losses of public infrastructure in the health sector at 5 billion dollars, and the electricity and water sector at 10 billion dollars, and explains that the losses of the private sector are no less than 15 billion dollars, in addition to the total destruction of the industrial sector in the states of Khartoum and South Darfur at about 30 billion dollars, as he estimated. Agricultural sector losses amounted to $10 billion.

Regarding citizens and their property, the economic expert says that about 10,000 homes in Khartoum State were completely looted, including citizens’ savings, and about 30,000 cars were looted, and those losses were estimated at 10 billion dollars.
The World Bank expected that Sudan’s economy would shrink by 12% in 2023 due to the repercussions of the war. The Sudanese pound also lost more than 90% of its value, as the exchange rate of the dollar before the war was 560 pounds, and after that it reached 1,070 pounds in the parallel market.
The crisis of the UN mission
The United Nations Integrated Mission to Support the Transition in Sudan (UNITAMS), headed by German Volker Perthes, has faced criticism from the military component and the Islamist movement since it began its work in 2021 at the request of then Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdouk.
Last September, Perthes submitted his resignation, and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appointed Ramadan Lamamra as his envoy to Sudan. The UN Security Council ended the mission’s duties in early December at the request of Sudan, which described its performance as disappointing.
American pressure
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, political researcher Abdul Qadir Hassan believes that the faltering of the Jeddah platform for negotiations between the army and the Rapid Support disappointed the hopes of the Sudanese, who were waiting for peace, and he attributed this to the lack of will on both sides of the conflict, and the external interventions that complicated the situation.
Hassan believes that the first quarter of the new year will witness a breakthrough towards ending the war due to American pressure, as Washington seeks to force the two parties to stop fighting as the American elections approach, as violations, war crimes, and ethnic cleansing in Darfur have become an internal agenda in the United States, and a file for competition between the White House and the US Congress.
The researcher adds that the American envoy to the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer, who was the architect of the agreement between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray Front, which ended the war in the region, began a movement in the Sudanese file since last week by participating in the summit of leaders of the IGAD countries.
Renewed tension between Sudan and IGAD. Does the logic of war prevail?
Sudan disavowed the final statement of the emergency summit of the Intergovernmental Authority for the Development (IGAD), which was held on Saturday for one day in Djibouti, and rejected many points within the final communique.
Will Al-Burhan and Hemedti meet?
Doha Forum warns against dividing Sudan. Officials and experts participating in the Doha Forum warned of the seriousness against the signs of division looming on the horizon of Sudan, in light of the continued battles between the army and the Rapid Support Forces with no signs of a political solution
Sudan: When will the war stop. And what after the army’s victory?!
Some readings indicate that the war will end in the same way it started, suddenly and without clues of its abating, especially since the intelligence aspect of this war dominates the other aspects