Africa Stands on a Hot Plate Azmi Abdul Razek

Azmi Abdul Razek

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiye Ahmed is a mirror image of a man firmly determined to strengthen his iron grip, build an empire that dominates the entire region, and to snatch the crown of African leadership by force. He is now, after waging a fierce war against Tigray, having abused his political opponents, and circumventing the holding of elections in 2020, and getting rid of his most prominent competitors, is finally thinking seriously about swallowing up neighboring countries.
Ethiopia threatens African peace
During the past period, Ethiopia began to threaten African peace and security, without fearing any consequences. It supported the rebellion of the Rapid Support militia (RSF), hosted the Sudanese armed opposition, and sought to attack again the Al-Fashqa area, which the Sudanese army had regained, at the same time the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiye Ahmed is also insisting to complete all stages of the construction of the Renaissance Dam. He has unilaterally filled and operated the dam, completely ignoring the positions and objections of the crossing and downstream countries, and posing a direct threat to the interests of Egypt and Sudan, and their historical rights to the River Nile. This is a hostile step that no Ethiopian ruler had taken before.
Abiye Ahmed was not satisfied with these open fronts, but his government announced a few days ago that the independence and referendum of Eritrea, according to which it was liberated from the dependency of Addis Ababa, was a historical and legal mistake, and this necessarily means the lack of Ethiopian recognition of Eritrea’s sovereignty, and the return of war between the two nations.
Fighting for ports
Perhaps the motive for these statements is that Ethiopia is searching for sea outlets, at any cost, given that it is a landlocked state, and to do so, it has to either invade neighboring countries, or deepen divisions amongst them, thus weaken and undermining them.
This is what it actually did when it concluded a memorandum of understanding and cooperation with the administration of Somaliland – the northern regions of Somalia – and according to this agreement, Ethiopia will obtain a naval base in Somalia, in exchange for the region obtaining shares in Ethiopian Airlines, and Ethiopia will also recognize that the Separatist Somaliland region as independent state.
This is the agreement that Egypt and Sudan rejected, as it was a blatant infringement on the sovereignty of Somalia, which essentially holds membership in the Arab League. The Arab countries should have had unified and strict positions towards this attack, which means strengthening divisions and dominating this region by force, and curbing Abiye Ahmed’s ambitions to resources of neighboring countries.
After being overcome by feelings of greatness, he wants to fight on all fronts, in the manner of Emperor Haile Selassie, and to strengthen the central grip with the bloody approach taken before by his predecessor, Menelik II.
Between Hemedti and Abiye Ahmed
Although the stages of shaping Abiye Ahmed’s personality differ from the way Hemedti appeared, the existence of a hidden lever that works to empower them and coordinate between them in many situations is not hidden from anyone, and that lever is driven by interests in both Sudan and Ethiopia, and means that the contractor is one.
The West began dealing with Hemedti by using his forces to combat illegal immigration, about ten years ago. To do so, the violations committed by the RSF Darfur, Khartoum, and Gezira State were overlooked. Rather, he is currently supported with weapons and intelligence information, and protected against legal prosecution.
The African countries he recently visited were also forced to receive him as if he were a head of state, and to portray him as a savior of democracy and the Sudanese revolution, while he is the cursed enemy of the revolution and civilian rule. In addition, the danger of the RSF lies in the fact that they are diaspora from different countries, gathered from Chad, Mali, Libya, South Sudan and Central Africa.
Sudan accused Chad of opening its airports to bring weapons to the rebels across the western border, and the matter reached a diplomatic rupture, which means an expanding circle of violence, and the presence of hidden forces that want to ignite the West Africa and Sahel region, then controlling the largest stock of gold and uranium.
In conjunction with that spark, it became clear that Ethiopia had its eye on the oil of South Sudan, the fertile lands of Fashaga, the ports of Eritrea and the Somali coast, and was using the Renaissance Dam project to create an external scarecrow to suppress internal voices opposing this trend, and to threaten the interests of Arab countries, such as Abiye Ahmed’s intimidation from inside Parliament by mobilizing one million Ethiopians to confront the option of war with Egypt and Sudan.
African summer maneuvers
In July 2018, Abiye Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed the Asmara Declaration of Peace and Friendship. The declaration focused on the security aspect, demarcating borders, and opening areas of economic cooperation, but the Ethiopian Prime Minister backtracked, and today he threatens to return to war, and does not recognize a state whose name is Eritrea, and it is a fateful battle that Afwerki will also fight with old revenges, and he will find Sudan on his side, with the help of the Russian bear.
A few days ago, a Russian ship carrying 25,000 tons of grain arrived at the Eritrean port of Massawa, as a gift from Putin. In return, America will stand alongside Ethiopia and Turkey, and Egypt and Sudan alongside Somalia and Eritrea, and neither IGAD nor the dilapidated African Union will be able to extinguish that fire
This means that a confrontation between major countries may take place this time on the African plateau, and that the region is promised comprehensive chaos, guaranteeing the West greater opportunities to intervene, plunder African resources, and impose dictatorial regimes loyal to it.
Where is the African will?
Ethiopia is a country in economic crisis, suffering from ethnic conflicts and the ambitions of local leaders. Abiye Ahmed will not be able to fight these multiple wars alone, and he will fall into the same predicament that his predecessor Meles Zenawe fell into when he entered into a confrontation with Sudan on the one hand, and Eritrea on the other hand and a land incursion into Somali territory with the aim of controlling the ports, he ultimately retreated in defeat.
This means that Abiye Ahmed, who is fascinated by American hegemony, has not learned from history, and will end up by suffering defeats and paying dear prices as a result of this stubbornness.
There is no doubt that the African region is on a hot plate, and is witnessing profound transformations, and a map of new military and political alliances and Ethiopia will be the focus of this conflict, which is a good opportunity for Egypt to intervene forcefully and protect its interests, and the Red Sea coast and the plateau will be a burning spot.
Israeli influence cannot be ignored, which sought to impose and create military dictatorships to protect its interests, and to lure them with money and absolute power: Hemedti in Sudan, Haftar in Libya, and Abiye Ahmed in Ethiopia.
But there is a question: Where is the African popular will, and why does it not confront these destructive plans?