Beyond Sudan’s New Alliances

As I see

By: Adil El-Baz

The latest movements of Sudanese diplomacy have revealed new trends for foreign policy in Sudan, the features of which are not complete, but they send many signals that indicate through their tracking that Sudan is on the verge of a major turning point in its foreign relations and the formation of an alliance outside geopolitics and outside its old organization of relations in the Arab and African regions.
What is strange is that in the list of Sudan’s new alliances, we see an asceticism in the approach of China, Russia, and Malaysia, which are the countries that remained allies of the former regime and are now responsible for defending Sudan in the Security Council.
Why is Sudan now looking for alliances outside its vital geographic space?
The positions of the countries of the Arab region regarding the war that broke out in Sudan have revealed that it does not enjoy any real support or support from its Arab brothers, as the positions of the Arab countries fluctuated between absolute hostility and support for the movement rebelling against the Authority of the Sudanese state, and silence and ignoring the conflict raging in Sudan, to desperate mediation attempts that did not succeed offering any solution to the war, which is almost completing its first year.
These positions are viewed by the Sudanese with some disappointment, as they expected the brothers to stand with the Sudanese army, which has always presented itself in the front rows to defend Arab causes since the October 1973 war until the Yemen war, in which Sudanese soldiers are still stationed on the borders of two of Arab countries.
This Arab position was accompanied by more strange positions on the part of African countries and organizations alike. At the beginning of the war, Ethiopia and Kenya took a hostile position towards Sudan, clearly siding with the rebellion movement led by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). They even moved their position to bring together the regional organizations (IGAD/African Union) in favor of the rebellion’s approaches and its vision of stopping the war based on its terms and conditions. In addition, the positions of some neighboring countries began to be confusing, as Libya and Chad – Sudan’s neighbors on its western borders – opened their lands to establish camps for the rebel RSF and assumed all types of support, from weapons to food, to establish training camps and hospitals to treat fighters from the rebel movement.
This position prompted Sudan to freeze its membership in IGAD and move away from the initiatives of the African Union, especially since Sudan’s membership was frozen by a decision of the African Union two years ago. The Sudanese government announced last week that it does not recognize any negotiating platform other than the Jeddah platform. Thus, based on these positions, Africa has fallen out of the circle of influence in the course of events, as it is no longer an honest mediator desired by the Sudanese party.
In the face of these Arab and African positions, which Sudan considered advocating and supportive of the rebellion, Sudan began the journey of searching for reliable allies that could be relied upon to support its foreign policy and war efforts.
On the Arab side, Sudan chose to expand its relations with two countries outside the African region. It chose Qatar, whose relationship with Sudan has roots extending back many years and has positive interventions in Sudanese affairs, especially in Darfur affairs, when Qatar hosted, for three years, arduous and long negotiations that crowned in what was known as the Doha Agreement in the year 2011. Qatar is also far from the intersection of conflicts in the region, and its relationship with all the East and West African countries that border Sudan is distinct, and Qatar’s diplomacy is respected by everyone on the continent, which qualifies it to play an important role in the Sudanese crisis, especially since it is trusted by all parties.
In addition to this desired and required role, Sudan desires another role for Qatar; an economic role in light of the circumstances it is experiencing, including the imbalance of its payments and the cessation of 90% of state revenues, in addition to the burdens of the ongoing war, which has no end in sight. Qatar can support Sudan through smart partnerships in the field of gold export, which is the primary resource that Sudan now depends on to run the state’s wheel and support the war effort. The State of Qatar can also grant Sudan bank deposits that will help stabilize the constantly deteriorating exchange rate as a result of the repercussions of the war. Sudan also aims to benefit from Qatar’s extended relations with Turkey and Iran to open new paths in relations with these two countries.
Another very important country with which Sudan seeks to secure its old relations is Türkiye. It is known that Turkey has ancient relations with Sudan (the history of Sudanese-Turkish relations goes back to the year 1555 when Sudan entered under Ottoman sovereignty, and the Ottomans established what is known as the Abyssinian province on part of eastern Sudan and part of the current state of Eritrea, and the capital of that province was the city of Suakin. As for Central and Southern Sudan, their relationship with the Turks began in the year 1821, when Mohammad Ali Pasha invaded Sudan, and his state continued to rule the country until its fall at the hands of the Mahdist revolutionaries in the year 1885.
In the modern era, political relations have fluctuated greatly between Sudan and Turkey. It has taken a firm and supportive position for Sudan during the thirty years of the Ingaz Regime led by former President Omar Al-Bashir. What is constant across all regimes is that Turkey’s trade relations with Sudan have not been interrupted and are constantly evolving, from 450 million in the year 2020 to nearly a billion dollars last year.
The pace of Turkish-Sudanese relations began to accelerate since the end of last year following the visit of Sudanese President Abdul Fattah Al-Burhan to Turkey, which took place on September 13, 2023. The relevant circles did not reveal the real agenda behind the visit, but the leaks indicated an invitation made by President Al-Burhan to Turkey to mediate in the Sudanese conflict. President Erdogan welcomed the idea, but there was no development to present an initiative to resolve the Sudanese crisis or bring its parties together. However, Türkiye clearly announced its support for the Sudanese army, which it recognizes as the legitimate representative of Sudan. In light of this recognition, Sudan placed on the Turkish government’s table specific requests regarding commercial transactions, especially in the field of gold, in addition to requesting equipment and drones to assist in its war efforts. However, these requests have not yet yielded results. These efforts and the continuous visits of various Sudanese political and economic delegations, in addition to the recent increase in the movement of Turkish imports to Sudan, made the weaving of a strong alliance between them necessary for the interests of both parties, especially since Turkey has strategic interests, whether those related to Sudan or its growing presence on the African continent, and as part of Turkey’s goals of developing its relations with Sudan, so that Sudan can be its main gateway into Africa.
On the way to weaving its new alliances, Sudanese diplomacy turned to restoring Sudan’s relations with Algeria, such relations that have an ancient and diverse history, and include politics, culture, and economic cooperation. During the colonial period, Algeria and Sudan were part of the broader Arab and African movement for liberation from European colonialism. Algeria, which struggled against French colonialism in a long and bloody war of independence from 1954 to 1962, found moral and perhaps material support from Sudan on the economic level, but trade exchange figures have always been modest and over the years have not exceeded one hundred million dollars.
President Al-Burhan’s visit to Algeria on February 6 was an important development in relations between the two countries after a gap of years. During it, President Al-Burhan met with Algerian President Tebboune, through which bilateral relations and ways to develop them were discussed. However, the unified position of the two countries regarding foreign interference in the affairs of their countries seemed to be the most prominent thing in the visit and that what united them. President Tebboune indicated in his speech before President Al-Burhan that Algeria stands with Sudan in the face of the forces of evil that he did not name.
Press reports had indicated that the real purpose behind the visit was to establish a new alliance to combat the forces of evil by aborting their plans in the two countries, in addition to exploring the possibility of Algeria supplying Sudan with some weapons that the Sudanese army lacks, in addition to requesting spare parts for Sukhoi aircraft, a number of which Sudan owns and which are now playing a role. It played a major role in combating insurgency in the battles taking place in regions far from the capital, Khartoum.
If Sudan is able to weave its new alliances with the axes we mentioned above, the Sudanese political and military scene inside will witness a decisive change in favor of the Sudanese state and the army, and thus this will have an impact on the positions of the African and Arab regions and will have a major impact on the upcoming negotiations in the Jeddah Platform.