Winners of the Military Escalation in the Red Sea

By: Hashem Ali Hamid Mohammad

Some describe the Red Sea as a bridge linking the seas of the East and West, which are the sea, the Arabian Gulf, the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean. Then, it is located at the meeting point of the continents of Asia and Africa, linking them to Europe via the Mediterranean Sea, after the operation of the Suez Canal in 1869, where the Red Sea became a natural extension of the canal, giving it a vital extension for various international functions and interests.

The importance of the Red Sea has increased and multiplied since 1932 after the discovery of oil in the Arabian Peninsula, which constituted an important shift in the scope of regional and international functions.

The Red Sea was important during World War II, and remained an area of ​​attraction due to the vital interests associated with it. The region attracted the world’s attention, changing its traditional function, which it had performed throughout the ages as a route for trade and external communication between Arab countries, Asia, and Africa, to playing political, military, and economic roles that became More growing with the progress of the world and the degree of competition.
Variations and risks
After October 7, 2023, the Gaza war produced a wave of Arab and international discontent as a result of the Israeli war machine’s targeting of civilians, including children, women, and the elderly. The reaction taken by the Houthi militias represented a more dangerous dimension in their exploitation of their position in the Gulf of Aden when they confronted the blocking of ships. foreigners from crossing the strait to the north.
Despite the differences in opinion indicated by the behavior, the subsequent reactions posed a danger to the region in the international coalition led by the United States and the increasing Western participation, which pushed countries such as Britain, France, and Germany at the forefront of more than 20 countries.
It seemed clear that disrupting trade and the active movement that the Red Sea continued to lead in linking the East with the West was disrupting real interests that could not tolerate postponement. This was evident in the rush of the United States and its allies to mobilize their forces in forming what was called the “Guardian of Prosperity Alliance,” and directly confronting the threats and striking targets inside the country. The Yemeni depth, which portends dangers and transformations that may extend over time. Indeed, these forces continue to multiply, and their existence does not end with the end of the current events after they have found a justification for their survival.
Military navigation
Saudi researcher Dr. Abdullah Abdul Mohsen Al-Sultan says in the study “The Red Sea and the Arab-Israeli Conflict,” “Since the October War of 1973, the Red Sea has become a vital security issue of concern to the countries bordering it. It has also become an arena for competitions with the aim of controlling it, and with that, the conflict and interference of the United States and the Soviet Union has gradually increased.” (Russia) has therefore become a factor contributing to political and military developments in the entire region.”

He added, “From a military perspective, the Red Sea has become the gateway to military navigation in the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and neighboring regions such as the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Gulf.”
The Sultan continued in his study, “From an economic standpoint, the Red Sea has linked the peoples living on its shores to trade as it is the outlet for most of its countries throughout history. Its importance comes from various aspects due to its national geographic location in the middle of the Arab world. This makes the Arab countries more sensitive to controlling it because of its connection to their security, and the most important passes through it.” Strategic commodity (oil).
Added to the arena of competition currently, and due to international changes in the region, are the dangers of other competing countries such as China, Turkey and Iran, which are powers that have a presence on the scene and have military bases on nearby shores in Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia, which doubles the danger of expansion in the region and makes it subject to regional and international competitions as a whole.
Here the question arises: Will the region belong to its people in the future, or will challenges and ambitions push it toward possible changes and loss like other people who lack land and homelands?
No world war
The former Sudanese ambassador to Washington, Al-Khadir Haroun, says, “The Red Sea is an international waterway through which 15 percent of international trade passes, and there are other advantages and countless benefits that have remained throughout history, whether in linking civilizations and human exchanges, in addition to roles in the movement of countries.” And armies and the expansion of empires, because of the benefits of communication with the outside world for the countries bordering it, and therefore countries without a coast are called “closed countries.”
He added, “In the current global situation and the tensions it is witnessing, international agreements should provide a kind of security, such as specifying the waters belonging to each country, and those international waters available to all countries. This is the ideal situation, but this is only partially achieved, especially in hot areas of the world, and geopolitics intervenes.” Always and so in every matter.”
He said, “With regard to the current sharp polarization in the Red Sea, there is an urgent need to resort to international laws, the law of the sea and the principle of state sovereignty on which the current international system is based.”
The Sudanese diplomat drew attention to the fact that “the economies of many countries will be affected by the cessation of navigation in this important waterway, as the circumnavigation around Africa to Europe costs an additional 20 days, which leads to higher prices, especially for poor countries, and the resulting problems.”
He demanded that “the Red Sea problem be a priority in the calculations of the United Nations and international powers to find a radical solution to it, and this will only happen by finding real solutions to problems related to reality, and resolving the grievances of the people through accountability, solutions, and serious steps in order to reduce tensions and prevent developments that threaten world peace.” “But from what I think about the current reality, I do not think that the major powers are ready for a world war.”
Local control
Despite the fact that the maritime site represents an asset to a local reality, it also represents a source of danger by virtue of the function it performs at the public level, and the resulting attention of external parties to the region.
In the strong and nationally homogeneous local dimension, the factor of stability is the closest to continuing external ambitions, and if the awareness of the population increases alongside homogeneity, this is a greater guarantee of stability and coexistence.
Cause of crisis
In the circumstances of the Arab reality and the fact that it is connected to countries, forces and vital interests, all of this is a real reason for any possibility in the event of a crisis in the Red Sea region, as is happening now due to the targeting of international navigation.

Here, the authors of the book “Introduction to the History of International Relations,” Pierre Renovan and Jean Durosel, say: “Land that has a coastal front has advantages from a commercial standpoint, as the sea provides facilities for movement at a low price, while establishing land transportation routes is expensive, despite the dangers.” Navigation provides greater stability in relations with abroad.”

Mahmoud Hassan Ahmed Khalil also emphasized in his study “On the Repercussions of the Red Sea on the Region” that “according to realistic extrapolations, the state gains greater importance if it overlooks a water strait. If such states are characterized by strength, they gain many advantages, otherwise the opposite would happen.” “Because of her weakness, which tempts others to attack her in order to obtain the desired benefits.”
“Agitating the sea”
Through these signals, any of the possibilities can be included in the current national models facing events and challenges. What is happening over the waters of the Red Sea on the shores of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden gives its future predictions regarding the extent of the powers enjoyed by the land overlooking the sea.
In the case of Yemen and the Houthis, the question becomes: Will the land be able to agitate the sea to drown the international forces above it, or will this force exploit the situation for continued survival, resulting in additional burdens on the Middle East region and instability that leads to new military build-ups?
Looking according to the local power factor, there is another model to which the theory of exchange between distinction and power applies. The distinction that the Red Sea coasts represent for the state of Somalia in the Horn of Africa region attracts and tempts neighboring regional parties with its expansion and strategic location.
In the case of Somalia and Ethiopia, which are searching for a seashore, and according to the scale of (the homogeneity of the marine environment), the shores of Somalia extending on the Red Sea remain safe if they are guarded by homogeneous forces with integrated strength and awareness. On the other hand, cannot achieve what it aspires to in acquiring a port on the Red Sea only through agreement and compromise, whether with Eritrea, Somalia, or Djibouti.