Why Have the Military Succeeded and the Civilians Failed? (2/2)

By: Adil El-Baz

As I see
1
After we saw the army taking full power after the period of October 25, 2022, I wondered at the conclusion of the first article (see how the military was able to regain power. Instead of returning to the barracks by order of the civilians, power returned to their barracks, complete and undiminished, and the revolutionary civilians migrated to their far and near exiles instead of disband, the Janjaweed were destroyed. How did that happen?).
The military took very clever methods, helped in this by the weakness of civilian cadres who rose to power without previous experience or capabilities that would qualify them to deal with the complexities of complicated situations that they were not qualified to deal with.
2
One of the military commanders who handled negotiations dossier with Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) cadres told me a story sufficient to explain how the military dealt with amateur activists without the slightest experience, and why they succeeded. He told me, some time before the negotiations, we studied the history of all the leaders of FFC, their studies and qualifications, the type of training they received, even their hobbies. We noticed that none of them had experience in negotiations, as none of them had studied a single course on strategies or negotiation tactics. Of course, we are studying that in the Military College, and we were among many negotiating delegations in Abuja, Naivasha, and Doha for many years, so we had accumulated experiences from which we learned a lot in the art of managing negotiations.
He said: When we began the first negotiation sessions with the civil side, we noticed that they were entering the negotiation hall without any paper or note in their hands to write down ideas and facts, as if they were heading to a discussion corner…while we were preparing ourselves well, distributing the roles, and seeking the help of an assistant team who had all the specializations to monitor and follow up on what happened in the negotiating room and outside it. Thus, it was not difficult for us to achieve what we wanted easily, as we realized that we were facing a group of amateurs whose only concern was to reach the seat of power in the shortest way. We provided that for them, which helped us achieve all our goals, the most important of which was keeping them from interfering in all security affairs, and that was our strategy.
3
Skillfully, the military were able to play the game of divide and rule with complete mastery, especially since the contradictions between the FFC were not hidden from anyone, and they were the forces that led the revolution, as they were united only by the goal of overthrowing the regime, and after that goal was achieved, their contradictions and conflicting agendas became apparent, and quickly its differences exploded, and here the soldiers invested in those contradictions intelligently, and contributed to deepening them and attracting some influential people in the parties and civil society. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had the highest reputation at the time for polarization due to the resources available to it that enabled it to buy and sell many activists, and even the leaders of the parties themselves, who were the same activists the leaders who praise the Janjaweed rebellion today.
In less than two years, the military was able to fragment the unity of the opposition forces, so they dominated the political and military scene, and they did everything they wanted, while the FFC retreated and lost their masses through their failure and hesitation and became nothing more than a dying fantasy, competitors in a system in which they only have the freedom of empty speech and chanting.
4
Through “needle drilling” and other tactics, the military was able to play the game of precaution with the outside world, making promises to the world that would not be fulfilled, handing them ropes without a cow, taking them to the sea and bringing them back thirsty… What cunning people they are… Look at how they dealt with African organizations, accepting their projects and proposals and then they a little while they make them fail because they know that these organizations are the main supporter of their rebel enemies. They withdrew from IGAD after they made it dizzy. They expelled the UN mission that had supported their enemies little by little. They always sought to upset regional and international positions with enviable political cunning. Their policy is always to initially respond to internal and external pressures and absorb their first shock, then work to destroy everything that conflicts with their policy, plans and visions. They did that with the constitutional document, then they tore it up later and with the UN mission, and expelled it after a while. They found their chance in the Framework Agreement after the war of treason, so they buried it and a group of traitors with it.
If civilians desire to be successful in the future of their days, regardless of their positions and standpoints, they must learn lessons near and far in dealing with the military, as it is neither a coincidence nor a conspiracy that the military ruled for 57 years out of a total of 64 years that are the years of independence, and it is not a coincidence that all the achievements that it is proud of Now the Sudanese are in their era. They must learn that they are dealing with intelligent people who graduated from an ancient institution with a history, in which they learned the art of war, politics, and strategies, and they are not a group of humble coup soldiers, whose only interest is power. It is this naive analysis and underestimation of the capabilities of the military that made them rule for decades, and they became the ones who manipulated civilians and used them in their authoritarian projects, and even those parties that brought them to power eventually submitted to the authority of the military, and civilians still believe that they are cleverer than the military, and that they do not deserve to be partners in government.. They are for the barracks only to guard and the civilians for power and privileges, and these are pure illusions that have been proven false over the years and experiences, but who can convince the “cocks” of Sudanese politics?!!
The first lesson is that the military institution must be respected and taken as an actual partner in power and not just a guarding tool.
Civilians must remember that what opens the way for the military is their conflict, their chronic and absurd conflicts, and the idea of exclusion and counter-exclusion, in the words of our professor Al-Wathiq Kamir, and if they want to limit the military’s interventions, they must reform themselves, their parties, and their policies, and completely abandon the idea of excluding each other.
They must unite around a program and a constitution that they will all guard against any interference or violations by the military and themselves. Civilians drafted constitutions and documents that they quickly trampled underfoot at the first sharp turn (Constitution 56 was overthrown by Aboud’s coup in conspiracy with the Umma Party / Constitution 56 was again overthrown by Numeiri on 25 May 1969, in conspiracy with the communists, the 1973 constitution was overthrown by the April 1985 revolution, then the 1956 constitution was torn up for the third time after the Islamist coup in 1989. The 1998 constitution was torn up after the Islamists’ clashes, and the same fate befell the 2005 constitution, which everyone participated in drafting and wording, as it canceled after the change in 2019 and replaced with the constitutional document that was first forged by those who wrote it and then frozen in the coup of October 25, 2022, and is now in limbo.).
A very fluid circular situation. Unless the military institution is respected and its roles are recognized and agreed upon, and unless a constitution is agreed upon that is respected by everyone to protect the country against exclusion and counter-exclusion, the military will seize power at every turn and leave the civilians to empty cheer and chatter in the media, even if they accomplish a hundred other revolutions.