The War In Sudan….. Juba Government… Obscurity of the Position

Sudan Events – Abdul Basset Idris

When the war broke out against Sudan, the positions of the government of South Sudan went to support the authority and show support for the Sudanese army, but there is vagueness surrounding Juba’s position recently. The obscurity of Juba’s position on the ongoing war in Sudan raised questions, considering that South Sudan is the closest country to Sudan and can contribute to resolving the Sudanese crisis.
Unstable relationship:
The relationship between Sudan and the State of South Sudan is characterized by being unstable or fluctuating, despite the efforts made by the governments of the two countries. Since the secession of the South, relations have witnessed direct military confrontations in the disputed region of Heglig and Abyei. However, regional efforts succeeded at the time in pushing the governments of Al-Bashir and Salva Kiir to direct negotiations, which succeeded in achieving a cooperation agreement concluded in Addis Ababa, which led to calming differences but left the basic issues for the two countries without final solutions. The period after the agreement witnessed calm on the border, which is about two million and two hundred thousand kilometers long, the longest border of Sudan compared to its neighboring countries. At the beginning of 2019. Khartoum hosted complicated South Sudan talks after the outbreak of war between President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, which culminated in the signing of the South Sudan peace agreement in Khartoum in the presence of many regional and international parties.
In return, Juba hosted peace talks between the transitional government and the armed movements in Darfur, which led to the signing of the Juba Peace Agreement, which enabled the armed movements to come to Sudan and participate in the transitional government.
Juba’s position on the war
After the outbreak of war on Sudan in mid-April last year, Juba’s positions shifted towards standing with the armed forces in the face of the rebellion of the leader of the Rapid Support Militia (RSF), Hemedti. President Salva Kiir participated in the Cairo summit of the heads of Sudan’s neighboring countries, and it was part of the final statement affirming the neighboring countries’ support for the institutions of the legitimate state in Sudan and the necessity for no external party to interfere in the crisis. After that, the neighboring countries’ platform was absent and their efforts for a solution were killed in their infancy, and the foreign ministers charged with holding a meeting to establish mechanisms for resolving the Sudanese crisis did not succeed in holding that meeting.
Juba, which maintained its membership in IGAD, moved to the meetings of the heads of IGAD, the platform which the Sudanese government described as siding with the rebel militia, and was described as a serious attempt by proxy by others to assassinate the Jeddah platform by going to a new platform to rid the militia of the dilemma of its commitment to the initial provisions of Jeddah, which require them to evict the homes of citizens and civilian objects to resume the rest of the talks agenda.
Containing of tension
Informed sources tell (Sudan Events) that concern a has gripped the Juba government after a letter sent by the Sudanese Ministry of Energy and Oil in which it notified its counterpart of the cessation of the flow of South Sudanese oil as a result of the damage caused by the rebel militia to the oil pipeline and stations.
Oil constitutes a major artery for feeding the public treasury in Juba, as it is extracted, refined, and transported to export ports through Sudanese facilities and ports, in exchange for Sudan receiving royalties from transporting and refining southern oil.
In mid-March, South Sudan’s Minister of Finance, Awu Daniel, said in a press conference that his country’s revenues from crude oil had diminished because the war in Sudan led to the disruption of the pipeline. The minister explained that government employees had not received their wages for six months, for reasons including a decline in oil revenues.
In this context, informed sources told (Sudan Events) that the Vice President of the Sovereign Council visited Juba, and discussed with President Mayardit the discrepancy in the relations of the two countries, including Juba’s fears that the cessation of the flow of crude oil would prolong, and last week Aqar visited Bashaer Port to export oil, and he confirmed during his meeting with officials the port provides the government with all the needs of restarting oil, and expects to process the lines within sixty days.
A complicated security file
The war in Khartoum and the Gezira revealed the participation of armed South Sudanese militias fighting alongside the RSF Militia. In this context, security expert Yousuf Mustafa told (Sudan Events) that mercenaries from South Sudan participated in the attack on the armored corps and the battles south of Khartoum and the Gezira. Yousuf said that the government of the south under its regional obligations as a member of the African security system and its mechanisms are required to investigate and cooperate with the Sudanese security services to dry up the sources of the flow of mercenaries from its country and to participate in eliminating them in accordance with its regional commitment to combat negative and rebel forces and terrorist groups.
On the other hand, the expert specializing in African affairs, Abbas Mohammad Ahmed, told (Sudan Events) that South Sudan’s position at the official level has undergone fundamental transformations as a result of external interference in the current conflict in Sudan.
Abbas adds, “After the official position supported the position of the government, or rather the armed forces of the people, this position has now changed in favor of exerting a kind of indirect pressure on the position of the armed forces by using South Sudan as an important card in this framework.”
Abbas continued, “There is the unofficial situation represented by the influx of mercenary fighters as a result of the employment of networks of unofficial forces and militias that abound in South Sudan, which has become one of the determinants of relations between the two countries now and in the future.”
The reasons for the change in the position of South Sudan – as Abbas said – can be explained by the fact that it is a country that emerged as a result of intense external interference and is run by elites that are fragile in the face of foreign temptations, which is consistent with the nature of external interference in Sudan currently.
Emirates on line:
Since the fall of Al-Bashir, Emirati interest in South Sudan has increased, and one month after the fall of Al-Bashir’s regime, Bin Zayed sent an official invitation to President Salva Kiir to discuss bilateral relations. Sources told (Sudan Events) that the UAE is trying to control the ins and outs of the economy in Sudan and the South, and indicated that the invitation President Kiir preceded the invitation of the Juba peace parties and movements and was followed by the invitation of Abdulaziz Al-Hilu.
The UAE penetration raises Sudanese concern about waging an economic war that will end in an armed confrontation between Khartoum and Juba after Khartoum officially accused Abu Dhabi of supporting Hemedti’s militia.
During the past few days, the UAE concluded an (oil for cash) agreement with the government of South Sudan, and media reported that Abu Dhabi would give Juba $13 billion, after a well-known company on a small scale, managed by a person with a distant relationship to the ruling family in the Emirates, agreed to lend South Sudan 12 billion euros ($12.9 billion) in exchange for payment in oil, making it one of the largest oil-for-cash deals ever, and the latest intervention of this kind in an African country facing many challenges.
The Sudan News website said that the deal will enable the UAE to obtain oil at a reduced price for a period of up to two decades. Under the agreement, South Sudan will sell oil at a price $10 per barrel below the global reference price.
But until now, Sudan has not issued any official comment regarding the potential repercussions of this deal and its impact on the oil transportation agreement signed with South Sudan.
Juba is aware of the consequences:

Journalist Al-Nour Ahmed Al-Nour, for his part, rules out using Juba in the proxy war game against Sudan. He told (Sudan Events): “It is difficult to use official Juba against Sudan because it realizes that Khartoum is capable of harming it if it places itself at the service of parties hostile to Sudan. It has interests with Khartoum that it cannot neglect, whether exporting its oil through its territory or the movement of Sudanese goods and commodities, on which five southern states bordering Sudan, with a dense population and far from the Ugandan border through which goods enter South Sudan.
Given the fragile security situation and the presence of armed movements and groups not controlled by the government in Juba, they could be used as some southern opposition factions that work as mercenaries with the RSF Militia, and it is not unlikely that leaders or officials in Juba could cooperate with Sudan’s enemies.
IGAD for the second time
It is expected that the presidency of the IGAD group of countries will be officially transferred to South Sudan next June. Sudan had objected to the transfer of the chairmanship of the committee from President Salva Kiir to the Kenyan president, and announced the freezing of its membership in the organization. In this regard, it appears that IGAD is trying to revive its role again, as coinciding with the recent changes in Juba’s positions was the appointment of IGAD to South Sudan, Lawrence Korbandi, as a special envoy of IGAD to Sudan.
The Executive Secretary of IGAD, Warqne Qebeho, met at the organization’s headquarters in Djibouti, Lawrence, officially welcoming him to his new role where detailed discussions took place on the current situation in Sudan.
The Executive Secretary affirmed IGAD’s commitment to promoting progress and seeking a peaceful solution to the conflict in Sudan, which has continued for the second year causing unimaginable suffering to the Sudanese people.