France Faces ‘Consequential’ Vote as Far-Right Rout Prompts Macron Gamble

France’s finance minister said on Monday that the snap election called by President Emmanuel Macron after a bruising loss to the far-right in European Parliament elections would be the most consequential legislative vote in the republic’s history.
Macron’s shock decision amounts to a roll of the dice on his political future. It could hand a great deal of power to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) after years on the sidelines, and neuter his presidency three years before it is due to end.
The legislative vote will take place on June 30, less than a month before the start of the Paris Olympics, with a second round on July 7.
Helmed by Jordan Bardella, the RN won about 32% of the vote on Sunday, more than double the Macron ticket’s 15%, according to exit polls.
Some RN leaders appeared to have been caught off-guard.
Bardella will be the party’s candidate for prime minister, he added.
The result is hard to predict. The outcome is likely to depend on how committed leftist and center-right voters are to the idea of blocking the far-right from power.
If the RN wins a majority, Macron would still remain as president and direct defense and foreign policy. But he would lose the power to set the domestic agenda, from economic policy to security.
His Renaissance party currently has 169 lower house lawmakers out of a total of 577. The RN has 88.
Eurasia Group said the RN was no shoo-in for a majority, predicting a hung parliament as the most likely scenario.
“Faced with another hung parliament, (Macron) will try to form a wider alliance with the centre-right or centre-left, possibly by appointing a prime minister from one of those camps,” it said in a note.