What is the secret of the US Eagerness and what is the symbolism of Changing the Place (1-5)
Ambassador Karar Al-Tuhami
There is no dispute that negotiation during wars is a complicated matter, but in many cases it is a familiar tactical and strategic necessity.
Many countries have negotiated with rebel factions against them even without recognizing them. In most cases, governments were the winners.
England negotiated with the Irish Republican Army, America negotiated with the Taliban, Nicaragua negotiated with the Sandinistas, Colombia negotiated with the FARC rebels, the Mozambican government negotiated with the Renamo movement, the Philippines negotiated with the Moro Liberation Front, and Angola negotiated with Bonita.
It is not a shame for a government to negotiate with a deviant movement, but there are elements that a successful government negotiator has no choice but to have, which are:
⁃ To be in a position of strength and believe in the justice of your cause.
⁃ Not to submit to any pressures that try to dictate or use the carrot and stick
⁃ And do not give up on the constants the people cling to it
⁃ And to make sure that the people stand behind you and support you,,,
⁃ And to negotiate while you are aware of the details and know that negotiation is a fine art and a minefield that requires caution and traps set for you to fall into the mistake of negligence and that it is like a game of chess that the clever and intelligent person anticipates and understands its strategies and knows the outcome of every move on the board
⁃ After these constants, I fear no negotiation regardless of place, time or parties.
Throughout the history of political conflicts in the world, dozens of governments have negotiated with rebellious movements against them, and negotiation was one of the tools for complete victory
▪️ In the Sudanese case, Jeddah Declaration was established on May 6, 2023, and after it Jeddah Agreement on the eleventh of the same month!! This agreement was reached and the war was still fresh and had not yet completed its month, and it was possible to contain the fire if the African Union AU ,the Arab League AL , or the mediators were serious in their mediation and their desire to curb the war and rebellion.
▪️Jeddah Agreement was based on a strong foundation that is difficult to jump over because it contained the logic of peace based on the facts on the ground and on international humanitarian law in armed conflicts. Here, we must praise the government negotiating team of military personnel and diplomats, as their experience and insight excelled and they laid strong foundations for uprooting the right of the citizen and the homeland to freedom and sovereignty with intelligence and shrewdness that broke the stubbornness of the rebels and exposed the illusions they were demanding and the absence of their goals and the weakness of their cadres and references.
▪️Now, with the field situations that have changed a lot in favor of the Sudanese army SAF ,as it succeeded in breaking the bottlenecks and complex sieges in which the rebels did not benefit from the relative advantage that was available to them without effort before the war, such as the siege of the Commandment and the occupation of Omdurman and the Radio and TV buildings and the siege of the engineering corps, all of which the army won and restored Arranging the field conditions in the most important paths of the war and its coordinates
▪️ However, there is a package of questions that must be studied by public opinion and media professionals and by negotiators and officials and work to dismantle them accurately if Sudan accepts another stage of negotiations that is not without conspiracy, intrigue and confusion,,, and these questions revolve in the minds of the citizen and the man in the street and among the elites, including the following questions
1. Do negotiations mean concessions or granting recognition to the party that rebels against the State?
2. Why did the mediators not ensure that support is obligated to implement what was stipulated in Jeddah Agreement or to adhere to what is implicit in international law?
3. Did the Sudanese army SAF commit any violations and what are they?
4. Why did the implementation of Jeddah Declaration falter and why was the implementation of the agreement that resulted from the declaration frozen and what are the violations and transgressions of the rebellion in them?
5. Will the negotiations in Geneva succeed and will the mediator fix what the war has ruined, or will it be just a diplomatic and media maneuver, with each person intending to gain something?
6. How will those who committed crimes against State security be prosecuted if the negotiations succeed?
7. Will the Geneva negotiations start from Zero or from where they stopped in Jeddah, and who organizes the field and sets the rules?
8. Is the participation of the African Union AU and the UAE a positive or negative indicator? Can this be exploited in the interest of the Sudanese State?
9. What is the difference between Jeddah Declaration and Jeddah Agreement? Why did the place move from Jeddah to Switzerland? What is the symbolism of the place and the purpose of the move?
10. Why did the mediator in Jeddah suspend the negotiations on December 5, 2023, to revive them after eight months of fighting, destruction and devastation?
11. What means of pressure does the mediator have this time with the meeting decisions that he did not have before in Jeddah?
12. What is the role of the collective and professional forces and parties in influencing the negotiations towards the gains of the people and the State?
13. What are the geopolitical and local pressures that Sudan can use on the other parties, including the mediators?
14. What is the secret of the American eagerness to negotiate this time? And what did the US Secretary of State say to the President of the Sovereignty Council TSC about Jeddah Agreement?
15. What is the significance of the paragraph on international law referred to in Jeddah Declaration, and did the rebels adhere to it or to the entire agreement?
16. Was any kind of pressure formed by the mediators on the Rapid Support Forces RSF?
17. What are the models of international negotiations that can be used as a reference for Sudan’s position on the negotiations?
18. Will the people accept the installation of a civilian government without elections if the negotiations result in it?
19. What might happen if the government side rejects the dictates, proposals and recommendations that may be a kiss of life for the rebellion.
20. Will this fabricated meeting succeed or will it join its brothers?
We will try to answer in the articles successively, and we hope that you will contribute to the answer as much as possible.