Imposing its Conditions before Geneva Negotiations

Report – Amir Abdel Majid

From the beginning, it was clear that all the initiatives that were put forward did not succeed because the Sudanese army SAF and the Sovereignty Council TSC ,which represents the political leadership of the country, have justifications for rejection..

Every initiative, from the first gathering of the Commander-in-Chief with the militia leader, for which committees were formed in the African Union AU once and IGAD once, and the negotiations called for by many countries such as Uganda, Kenya, Libya and others, all failed because the SAF rejected them and the Commander-in-Chief had comments about them.

Therefore, because the United States US knows that the militia will rush to announce its approval of the negotiations, as it has become accustomed to every time, because it is the only way out for it now after the State of fragmentation it has entered and the world’s preoccupation with major crises whose events are accelerating, it has moved through its special representative, Tom Perriello, to the point that can make the negotiations successful, which is to guarantee the participation of the SAF , and in order to guarantee its participation, it has moved away from the language of threats that US has become accustomed to with the regimes in Sudan after Secretary of State Anthony Blinken tried it with the head of the Sovereignty Council TSC, the Commander-in-Chief of the SAF , and it did not succeed, but the SAF came out affirming that no one will lead it to choices it does not want under threat.

Drums Beat :

Because many things are putting pressure on the United States US , such as the strategic Russian expansion in Africa and the Red Sea, the American elections, and the war that is currently beating in the Middle East, America had to change its approach and resort to a different language, given that it does not have the papers that would make the SAF leaders comply with its orders.

This time, Tom Perriello did not get angry when Burhan refused to meet him on his plane at Port Sudan Airport, but rather came out confirming that he appreciates Burhan’s attitude , who he said he is in constant contact with. US Secretary of State Blinken did not hold back to dictate his orders to Burhan, but rather to discuss with him the importance of the SAF’ presence for the success of the negotiations, which Burhan responded to by saying that the negotiations must be preceded by meetings between Sudanese and American officials to discuss Sudan’s concerns, which is what happened, as the US State Department announced that a delegation from it would meet with Sudanese officials to consult on the Swiss negotiations.

It also announced that the countries participating as observers would not be part of the mediation, but would contribute to stopping the war, which constitutes an American transition from the box of dictation to the box of consultation, and perhaps announcing new positions that we have begun We hear it from the US Special Envoy Tom Perriello, who confirmed in his statements on the “X” website that he is optimistic about the participation of the Sudanese army SAF in the Swiss talks to end the war in Sudan, which were set for August 14th.

He said that the participation of political parties and civilian groups is not on the table in the Swiss talks because of the separation of the political track from the military track, which has been the SAF’ attitude since the beginning.

He pointed out that the Swiss talks will be based on Jeddah Agreement as the basis for the Switzerland platform.

He said that they spent three months coordinating with the parties in the region and the province and both parties directly. He continued, “The SAF’ participation in the talks is necessary because the Rapid Support Forces RSF cannot be relied upon to transport humanitarian aid.” Has America’s strategy changed in its view of the conflict, or is it a maneuver to force the army to sit at the negotiating table? The sands are moving

Yassir Hassan Osman Arifi, who worked for a period in the Sudanese Foreign Ministry and was involved in files related to the Americans, says that the matter has many aspects because US strategically knows that the presence of the militia in the seat of power in Sudan threatens its interests in the region because the matter is not only related to the conflict of resources but to the overall strategy of the region under which the sands are now moving due to the strong entry of the Russian bear.

This is something that US, with its two parties, views as a very important matter. On the other hand, the Democrats know that the election battle against Trump requires real successes on the ground at a time when the party’s fingers are burning in the Middle East, the Red Sea, Africa and elsewhere. These are matters that have an impact on the elections because the Democratic Party knows that its battle for Kamala Harris to reach the position of president requires real successes that Biden has not succeeded in achieving. Therefore, they are racing against time now to achieve transformations in the Middle East, the Red Sea and Sudan by stopping the war in Gaza and ensuring the release of the Israeli hostages at all costs and by stopping the war in Sudan and preventing Russia from expanding further. Therefore, the tone will change now because they know that the only obstacle before them is the rejection of the Sudanese army SAF and people behind it.

If they presented it to the army Reassurances and condemnation of the Rapid Support Forces RSF publicly and expressed the Sudanese people, perhaps paving the way for negotiations that will take place under intense pressure starting with the movement of the International Criminal Court ICC and continuing with all the cards that can be used to stop the war and promote that they succeeded in stopping it and stopped Russia’s expansion, and he added, “It is a maneuver, but the Sudanese negotiator can turn it into gains because they now realize that the army is reluctant to negotiate and is advancing on the ground and the transformations taking place in the region and the world are not in the interest of the militia.”

Dossier Management : 

Dr. Mamoun Al-Khabir, specialist on international relations, said that the army has proven that it is more capable of managing its files than political parties, as it succeeded in pressuring the US administration and making it change its methods of dealing with it and with the Sudanese crisis, regardless of whether it is a strategic position or a maneuver.

In the end, it succeeded in imposing its conditions, as here is the negotiation platform confirming that the negotiations will be based on what was agreed upon in Jeddah forum and will not discuss political issues, and the UAE is only an observer and is not involved in the mediation, and US will discuss Sudan’s concerns before the negotiations, and we all saw the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court ICC affirming that the countries that supported the war will be pursued by the court, which is an important and vital change that sent a clear message to the regime in the UAE, which I believe is now watching these developments with one eye and fearing the developments of the war around it in the Gulf with the other eye.