Between Atta’s speech and Geneva Conference… is there any Comparison?

Al-Obaid Ahmed Marwih 

As usual every time, Lt. Gen. Yassir Al-Atta, Assistant Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces SAF , makes statements that arouse our curiosity – we journalists and writers – and then goes on to supervise military operations, leaving behind not only the echo of his speeches, but also the dust of battles raised by analysts and speakers as they try to interpret or respond to his statements!!

But the reactions last time were broader in scope and occupied the attention of many inside and outside Sudan, and satellite channels and newspaper websites competed in searching for explanations, perhaps because they – and they are right in that – saw in the timing, context and means something different, if not new.

Al-Atta’s statement, subject of our comment, is what he gave to Sudan TV, and since it was not broadcast live, and came via the state’s official television, there is no dispute that the messages he carried were intentional, regardless of the way in which Al-Atta expressed those messages and how those who received them understood them, including – for example – his statement that Lt.Gen. Burhan informed him of his desire to step down, which made some analysts and foreign media outlets go to the conclusion that a change at the level of the leadership of the SAF and the state might happen soon!!

What also confused the minds of some analysts was Al-Atta’s talk on the imminent completion of Sudan’s joining a new international axis, and that the leadership of the armed forces and the state had made up its mind in this direction, which many understood to mean that the Sudanese leadership would join, or had already joined, the Russian-Chinese axis, which competes with or opposes the American-Western axis.

However, the truth that no analyst should ignore, as stated by the Assistant Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces SAF to Sudan TV, is that Sudan has always been a focus of competition and conflict between international powers.

For more than three decades, it has been a stage for competition between China on the one hand and the United States of America USA on the other, primarily due to its geopolitical location and its vast and diverse resources, addition to other secondary reasons. This competition intensified when Russia entered the fray in a position closer to an alliance with China, in contrast to a Western alliance led by the United States, Britain and Norway.

Because of the economic blockade and Western diplomatic boycott that President Al-Bashir’s regime had been suffering from for more than a quarter of a century, the regime turned east and built strong relations with China, and began to establish a similar relationship with Russia.

Following the fall of the Salvation regime, with clear Western support, many thought that the main orientation of the new transitional regime, with its military and civilian wings, would be Western, and that the estrangement that the previous regime had been suffering from and the stifling economic blockade would fall with the fall of the regime, and that manna and quail would descend upon them, but none of this happened, and the United States of America USA

continued to impose one condition after another to normalize relations between Washington and Khartoum, including recognizing Israel and normalizing relations with it in exchange for removing Sudan’s name from the American list of supporters of terrorism, and paying huge financial compensation from an empty treasury in a fabricated case.

The SAF commandment that overthrew Al-Bashir, or the one that overthrew the coup plotters, imagined that it would be appreciated and revered by the United States of America USA and its European allies, but after four years of transition, it became certain that the whole thing was nothing but stages, each stage having its own requirements, so that they would all end in the end with dismantling and restructuring it, and making it a guard police for a selected group of unelected civilians, who were asked to implement a specific plan and program, which is not the place to detail here!!

Therefore, it was natural for the Sudanese army SAF to feel let down and bitter about the position of the West in general and the United States US in particular, and this feeling of bitterness and let down increased after the last war, in which it seemed as if the West was equating the army with the forces that rebelled against it and committed the violations and atrocities they committed, while it – the West – realizes that it is originally closer to a militia than a regular force.

In this context, and against this background, comes the speech of Lt.Gen. Yassir Al-Atta, which in essence does not carry out anything new, as the Sudanese army SAF has no choice but to search for strong allies in exchange for those who strengthen the rebel Rapid Support Forces RSF.

In this case, the choice to turn to both Russia and China, at the international level, is an inevitable choice, but it does not necessarily mean declaring a break with the West, as the military leadership in Sudan still keeps the door of hope ajar, if not to gain American satisfaction one day, then at least not to be hostile to it at the present time.

Here it is also important to say that Russia in particular prefers to enter the crisis in Sudan, through a political approach, in which it employs its developed relations with the Sudanese army SAF , its previous relations with the Rapid Support Forces RSF rebels, and its excellent relations with the regional party and the main supporter of the Rapid Support Forces RSF rebels.

The press release issued (Wednesday) following the meeting of the Russian President’s envoy to the Middle East, Mikhail Bogdanov, with the Sudanese ambassador in Moscow is a strong indication of this.

As for the regional level, the authorities in Sudan have to strengthen their relations with both Tehran and Ankara, in addition to the historical relations with Cairo, without losing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which most estimates indicate has accepted transferring the file to Geneva due to its preoccupation with other hotter files in the region, a large part of which is linked to the results of the US elections next November.

The bottom line in this matter, according to the available information, is that the responses received by the Sudanese authorities from the US administration regarding their reservations about the first US invitation were reasonable to the extent that they favored the option of accepting to go to Geneva, but the question remains about the level of representation in the negotiating delegation in terms of its diversity (military humanitarian) and in terms of the protocol level. Although it is unlikely that Burhan himself will lead the negotiating delegation, it is not surprising that his deputy will head the delegation that will go to Geneva, although this itself is linked to the nature of the contacts that have taken place since the invitation was presented, and to the results of the shuttle movement of the US Special Envoy to Sudan, Tom Perriello, in the capitals of the region during the past few days, which he may conclude with a quick visit to Port Sudan.

“The Investigator”