The conflict in Sudan threatens the Suez Canal

The Economist published an analysis yesterday, stating that the escalating conflict in Sudan could lead to further disruptions in global trade through the Suez Canal.

According to The Economist, up to 150,000 people have been killed so far, with bodies piling up in temporary graves visible from space. More than 10 million people have been forced to flee their homes, and some estimates predict that 2.5 million people could die by the end of the year.

Sudan’s open borders with seven “fragile” countries pose a significant threat. These neighboring countries, including Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Libya, make up 21% of Africa’s landmass and are home to 280 million people.

The ongoing conflict in Sudan also poses serious threats to countries far beyond its borders, as Sudan has an 800-kilometer coastline along the troubled Red Sea, a vital maritime route between Asia and Europe.

Attacks on shipping by Houthi rebels and the risk to crews have led many ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope as a safer alternative, adding thousands of nautical miles and several days to the journeys between the two continents. However, some shipowners continue to risk their sailors’ lives by taking the Red Sea route through the Suez Canal.

According to The Economist, the war in Sudan is being fueled by several countries in the Middle East and beyond. Russia and Iran are demanding a naval base on the Red Sea in exchange for arming Sudan’s military forces. The magazine warned that if Sudan falls into permanent chaos or becomes a rogue state hostile to the West, this could further threaten the operations of the Suez Canal, which the publication estimates typically handles one-seventh of global trade.

Currently, threats in the Red Sea are limited due to the range of Houthi attacks from their bases in Yemen. However, similar attacks from Sudan if it becomes unstable could bring problems to the northern Red Sea. Port Sudan, the country’s main port, is located across the waters from the growing Saudi port of Jeddah.

The magazine also expects broader repercussions from the conflict in Sudan, noting that a new refugee crisis could emerge in Europe. Migration is a “hot issue” in many countries, and around 60% of the people in camps in Calais on the English Channel are Sudanese.

The magazine warns that the global economy is already under severe pressure following COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and rising tensions in the South China Sea.