The Sudan Peace Plan: Entering through the Exit Door…!

The four main elements that contributed to the outbreak of conflict and war in our country are:

**First:** The interference of foreign powers in dealing with Sudanese affairs without sufficient understanding of its complexities and the chemistry of the general mood.

**Second:** The power ambitions of the Al-Daglo family and the abnormal situation of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which acted as a parallel force to the army, aiming to replace it. More critically, they underestimated the task, attempting to achieve it through a quick coup, while underestimating the army as an institution capable of facing such a scenario.

**Third:** The role of the Freedom and Change Forces (FFC), which burdened the transitional period with more responsibilities than it could bear. They monopolized the civilian component, although they were unfit to face the challenges of the transition and too narrow-minded to represent the broader Sudanese population.

**Fourth:** The army’s negligence in addressing national security risks, its failure to take preemptive steps before the disaster struck, and its slow response afterward. Moreover, the army leadership overindulged in political tactics without a governing strategic vision.

After all the victims and losses resulting from this catastrophic war, international efforts have been focused solely on restoring the situation to how it was before the October 25 decisions.

The political reading of these international powers is that the events of October 25 were a result of the union between the two armed forces (the army and RSF) under a single project.

Volker’s plan with the FFC at the time was to quickly drive a wedge between the military components by presenting the proposal of the Framework Agreement, which I described then as a roadmap leading to war…!

This was followed by the suspicious visit of UN envoy Volker to Hemeti in Al-Geneina, accompanied by Al-Taher Hajar and Hadi Idris…!

When the fighting erupted, international powers consistently repeated the same statement: “There will be no winner in this war.” In other words, whoever wins militarily will be stripped of the political privileges resulting from their victory, through international criminal prosecution.

At that point, the apple of sustained transitional authority will fall into the hands of a small, opportunistic, foreign-aligned political clique with no popular support. This group would serve as the local proxy for implementing the Western vision in Sudan…!

However…!

Ceasing hostilities while keeping the RSF in the political equation and within the military system by reproducing the Framework Agreement under a new name — perhaps replacing the FFC with “Progress” — which is clearly the option favored by Hamdok, his associates, the militia, and their international and regional sponsors, does not practically achieve sustainable peace in Sudan.

Instead, it merely postpones the war and the coup options from the present to an open-ended future. This explosive formula will not instill confidence in citizens to the extent that they will prefer to return to their homes. It will also naturally deter any businessman or foreign investor from spending a single dollar on a fictitious peace project that could explode at any moment, just as it did on April 15…!

Einstein once said: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

The meaning: We cannot solve intractable problems if we continue to think with the same mentality that created them…!