The Battle of Khartoum: Explaining Thursday’s Attack and Its Outcomes

Observers in Sudan have agreed that the wide-scale attack launched by the Sudanese army at dawn last Thursday in Khartoum was well-planned, aiming to take control of the capital and its three main cities.

The army forces were able to position themselves at the predetermined locations, while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) failed to repel them and were pushed back across the three bridges in Omdurman, suffering significant human and material losses.

The army successfully cut off support to the RSF through intensive aerial operations over the three cities of the capital, making any supply efforts—via what is known as the “Fazaa forces”—nearly impossible.

As a result, the army now almost completely surrounds the RSF in Khartoum and Khartoum North, leaving the RSF with only three options:

1. Fighting under siege conditions, which would prevent any military gains and hasten the destruction of their forces.

2. Ceasing combat and waiting for a change in conditions, although the chances of improvement are clearly diminishing, if not entirely gone.

3. Admitting that the war is over, at least in the capital’s three cities, and thus the best option is to surrender.

1. Accelerating the ongoing operation aimed at liberating the capital, as the army describes it. This could succeed given the current balance of power, but rushing could lead to higher casualties due to the snipers stationed at the entrances to these cities.

2. A more cautious approach, moving slowly or maintaining a holding position, while enforcing a ground and aerial blockade that prevents any kind of food supply, thus creating conditions ripe for surrender if the besieged forces choose that option.

As for the third theater of military operations near the oil refinery in northern Khartoum state, it is governed by the same factors and dynamics. The large RSF forces entrenched in the refinery area are facing the same complete siege from all sides, both from the air and the ground, and it is impossible for them to receive supplies.

Given the current balance of power, the end of the RSF’s presence at the refinery is only a matter of time. Resistance by the RSF is being constrained by the rapid depletion of food supplies and the diminishing chances of receiving support from outside the refinery area due to aerial and ground surveillance.

Additionally, what further complicates the RSF’s ability to receive food or military supplies is the context of the war, with the increasing efficiency of the army’s air force.

It is noteworthy that the air force has, to a significant extent, neutralized the RSF’s ability to bring in supplies from outside the country, by carrying out airstrikes—described as precise—against warehouses, vehicles, and military supplies at the entrances to the border with Chad, and at the airport of Nyala, the capital of South Darfur state, which is controlled by the RSF.