An Appeal for Urgent Intervention: Jebel Awliya Dam, A Ticking Time Bomb in Sudan 

The Jebel Awliya Dam, located on the White Nile in Sudan, stands as a crucial piece of infrastructure for the country. Constructed in 1937 during the Anglo-Egyptian colonial period, its primary purpose was to regulate the flow of the White Nile and provide water for agricultural projects downstream. Positioned approximately 40 kilometers south of Khartoum, the dam has served as a multipurpose facility, playing a pivotal role in irrigation, flood control, and electricity generation. Over time, it has also become a strategic asset for Sudan’s water management and national security. Since the outbreak of the Sudanese war in April 2023, the Jebel Awliya Dam area and the surrounding areas have fallen under the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia.

Seasonal Rise in Water Levels and the Situation This Year

During this time of year (October – December), the White Nile experiences a significant rise in water levels due to seasonal rainfall in the upstream regions of the basin, particularly in East Africa which called the short rains season. The heavy rains, coupled with the slow-moving nature of the White Nile, contribute to the accumulation of water. The dam’s gates, when operational, manage this flow to prevent downstream flooding. However, the current conflict has disrupted this critical function.

Furthermore, this year, Lake Victoria and other upstream sources of the White Nile, including Lake Albert and the Sudd wetlands in South Sudan, have recorded significantly higher rainfall levels, exceeding 200 mm in November 2024 in Lake Victoria. These were significantly higher levels compared to previous years. While lake Albert’s water levels have reached some of the highest points recorded in recent history.

Meteorological data indicates that rainfall in the Lake Victoria basin was approximately 20% above the historical average, driven by intensified weather patterns linked to climate change. This surge in precipitation has led to an increase in the flow of the White Nile, straining its capacity as it progresses downstream. Combined with the disruptions of normal operations at the Jebel Awliya Dam, the elevated water volumes have overwhelmed the natural flow system, further exacerbating the risk of widespread flooding in the areas north and south of the dam.

The Impact of the Rapid Support Forces Control of the Dam

Since the outbreak of Sudan’s ongoing war in April 2023, the Jebel Awliya Dam has fallen under the control of the RSF militia. The RSF has utilized the dam not only as a military base but also as a bridge to cross the White Nile, linking their positions on both banks and supply line to its controlled areas in Al Gezira State. The RSF closure of the dam gates has exacerbated the rise in water levels, resulting in the submergence of large areas in White Nile State, which lies to the south of the dam. This included the flooding of Aba Island that resulted in the displacement and homelessness of thousands of citizens, as well as the submergence of over 80% of farmed lands, in addition to the deterioration of environmental and health conditions. This action, whether strategic, deliberate, or negligent, has led to the accumulation of excess water upstream, creating a cascading risk for flooding across large areas.

SAF’s Air Strikes and the Dam’s Structural Integrity

The Sudanese Air Force has launched multiple airstrikes targeting RSF positions around the dam on multiple occasions since the eruption of the war. While these strikes aim to weaken the militia’s hold, they pose a significant risk to the structural integrity of the aging dam. Any damage to the dam could lead to uncontrolled water release devastating floods and the unleashing of a massive wall of water which threaten thousands of lives and properties downstream. Even a partial collapse in the dam could lead to catastrophic flooding, with water rushing uncontrollably towards Omdurman, Khartoum, and northern Sudan.

The Humanitarian Risks of the Situation

A breach of the dam, resulting from the combined effects of elevated hydrostatic pressure and compromised structural integrity, would result in a significant release of impounded water downstream. Additionally, the rising reservoir levels may induce overtopping, whereby the water surface surpasses the dam crest, leading to uncontrolled water flow.

This situation poses severe risks with catastrophic impact:

1.    Immediate Flooding: Areas north of the dam, including Omdurman, Khartoum, River Nile State and many islands in the Nile, are at high risk. The inundation of residential and agricultural lands will displace thousands.

2.    Humanitarian Crisis: Preliminary estimates suggest that over 1000,000 (One Million) people could be directly affected by flooding, with thousands more indirectly impacted due to the destruction of infrastructure, homes, and agricultural livelihoods. Majority of these victims are already displaced populations who are already in vulnerable living conditions.

3.    White Nile State: Regions like Jazirah Aba and other localities in White Nile State are already experiencing flooding. This has forced many residents to flee, adding to the growing number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan, already burdened by the conflict.

4.    Public Health Crisis: Floodwaters will contaminate water supplies, disseminating waterborne diseases such as cholera, dysentery, and malaria, which are already currently prevalent in Sudan, thereby exacerbating the strain on Sudan’s struggling healthcare system, which has been impeded by over 70% of its operational capacity due to war. Moreover, the extended stagnation of water creates conditions conducive to the further proliferation of vector-borne diseases.

5.    Longer-Term Impact: The sheer force of the water would also result in soil erosion and long-term land degradation. Destruction of crops, irrigation systems, and fisheries would have a lasting impact, as would the destruction of key transport routes and communication infrastructure. The destruction of the dam itself, which has been one of the infrastructure assets of the Sudanese national economy since before independence, would in itself be a huge loss.

An Urgent Appeal for Intervention

In light of these dire circumstances, there is an urgent need for the two parties to the conflict—the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF—to prioritize national safety over military objectives. Given the severity of the situation, immediate and unimpeded access to the dam by neutral technical teams is essential to assess its structural integrity, manage water levels, and address any potential vulnerabilities that could lead to catastrophic consequences. These teams must be granted the necessary permissions to conduct thorough evaluations, implement repairs if needed, and, most importantly, reopen the dam gates to regulate water flow.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is uniquely positioned to mediate this effort. As the guardian of the Geneva Conventions, the ICRC should facilitate the safe entry of technical teams and coordinate maintenance operations. The Geneva Conventions provide the contextual mandate for such intervention, as the protection of dams as essential civilian infrastructure is covered under Article 54 of Additional Protocol I and Article 70, which provides a framework for facilitating humanitarian relief, including access to critical infrastructure for repairs and assessment. Also, the Additional Protocol II which applies to non-international armed conflicts, states in Article 14 to protect objects that are necessary for the survival of the population, including dams, and prohibits their destruction unless required by military necessity. All this gives the ICRC a basis to intervene when such infrastructure is at risk due to conflict.

This step is critical to avert further flooding and prevent the potential collapse of the dam, which would result in an even greater humanitarian catastrophe.

A Call to Prevent Catastrophe: The Need for Immediate International Attention

International attention to the situation at Jebel Awliya Dam is not just necessary; it is an urgent imperative that must result in concrete actions rather than hollow declarations. This crisis is not solely a product of the ongoing internal conflict but also a result of the devastating impacts of global warming—a phenomenon to which Sudan and its people contribute a mere 0.06% of global emissions. It is both unjust and unconscionable that a nation bearing such a negligible share of responsibility for climate change should face disproportionately severe consequences.

The international community must act immediately, invoking the principle of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in its purest and most ethical form to mandate an intervention to safeguard the Jebel Awliya Dam’s situation from further deteriorating. This principle was conceived to transcend political interests and serve as a universal commitment to prevent and alleviate human suffering. Yet, in Sudan’s case, the politicization of its crisis has not only delayed meaningful intervention but also exacerbated the dire conditions on the ground. It is imperative now more than ever for global actors to abandon political agendas and focus on the moral and legal duty to avert a humanitarian disaster that they have, in part, contributed to through their inaction and environmental impact.

The deteriorating state of the Jebel Awliya Dam is a critical flashpoint that threatens countless lives, both directly and indirectly. Failure to address this issue risks compounding an already catastrophic situation, with potential ripple effects across the region. Neutral and principled humanitarian intervention, grounded in international law, is essential to stabilize the dam’s condition, safeguard human lives, and mitigate the escalating risks posed by the ongoing conflict and environmental degradation.

This is not merely an appeal for aid; it is a demand for justice and accountability. The global community must recognize its shared responsibility in addressing the root causes and consequences of this crisis. Action must be swift, decisive, and guided by humanitarian values and fairness. Anything less would be a betrayal of the very principles upon which international humanitarian law and human rights are built. Both warring factions and the international community must act decisively to prevent the Jebel Awliya Dam from becoming a symbol of neglect in a war-torn nation.