Hemetti’s Latest Moves (1-2): Shifting Pressure to Kenya?

Two weeks ago, platforms affiliated with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia promoted a press conference in Nairobi, Kenya, sparking rumors that the militia’s leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemetti), would be the keynote speaker. However, the conference, held on November 18, 2024, took place without Hemetti, leaving no lasting impact.

The speculation wasn’t baseless, as Hemetti was reportedly seen in Kenya during that period. The conference presented an opportunity to shift the militia’s geopolitical and public image, transferring regional and international pressures to a new area and expanding the militia’s footprint. Kenya is a strategically appealing choice for three key reasons:

1. Strong Connections: Hemetti shares a close relationship with Kenyan Prime Minister William Ruto, reportedly built on corrupt financial dealings that helped Ruto ascend to power. Additionally, Ruto has been linked to dubious gold smuggling operations involving Sudan. His infamous arrival in Sudan on a private jet remains widely known.

2. A Safe Haven for Allies: Kenya provides a secure space for key RSF figures to convene, many of whom are internationally wanted and unable to travel freely beyond the region (notably Hemetti, Abdul Rahim, and Al-Quni).

3. A Hub of Global Influence: Kenya serves as a media center for Africa and hosts numerous international organizations, large corporations, and complex networks. For a figure fighting to stay relevant, this makes Kenya an ideal staging ground.

Supporting this theory is Abdul Rahim Dagalo’s recent visit to Kenya, during which he met with Prime Minister Ruto. Reports also indicate a meeting with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir. According to Al-Sharq News on November 6, 2024, “Kenyan President William Ruto, accompanied by Abdul Rahim Dagalo, the deputy leader of the RSF, arrived in Juba to meet with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir to discuss various issues.”

South Sudanese media, however, only reported Ruto’s arrival, describing it as a one-day official visit with no mention of Abdul Rahim. Regardless, the visit aimed to solidify regional influence. Around the same time, a UAE delegation visited the region, underscoring its strategic importance.

Hemetti’s attempts to step out of Abu Dhabi’s shadow may also be motivated by a need to regain control over the RSF’s political and military decisions. In recent months, Abdul Rahim Dagalo has taken a more prominent role, sidelining Hemetti’s allies, including his political advisor, Youssef Ezzat. Abdul Rahim has even established a political coordination office in Kampala, Uganda, which offers easy access via South Sudan by air or road.

This shift has angered some factions but strengthened ties with the political movement “Tagadam,” whose rhetoric has increasingly aligned with the RSF’s agenda. Tagadam has also been vocally supportive of the RSF, even framing events like the so-called “civil administration” as democratic progress, despite the RSF’s notorious record.

Hemetti now appears to be entirely sidelined. His last significant statement on battlefield developments came on February 10, 2024, when he claimed “important victories in Al-Muhandiseen and Babnusa” and promised a “clean sweep.” In reality, RSF forces suffered severe defeats in those areas. Similarly, Hemetti’s October 9, 2024, address, following losses in Jabal Moyah, was seen as an attempt to reassert his presence and pressure Egypt—a strategy reportedly advised by Tagadam but one that ultimately failed.

Is the RSF’s leadership shifting its operations from Abu Dhabi to Africa’s heartlands? In my opinion, the answer is yes.

Could the RSF, under the Dagalo family’s leadership, transition from a militia of ambition to a political tool? Again, I believe the answer is yes. With military victory no longer achievable, the only viable path left is to secure whatever political gains remain—a mission Tagadam seems determined to achieve.

Hemetti is now a fragmented figure, leading a splintered entity desperately searching for stability. (To be continued…)