Sudanese Pin Their Hopes on the Turkish Initiative to End the War

The statements made by the Turkish and Sudanese foreign ministers after the former’s visit to Sudan lacked any reference to a “Sudanese-Emirati reconciliation,” instead focusing directly on ending the war in Sudan. Although the details of the initiative have not been disclosed, rumors circulated suggesting that it includes meetings between the Sudanese army leadership and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the UAE.

Despite the contradictory positions taken by Sudanese Islamist groups, which strongly support the continuation of the war until the RSF is militarily defeated, the Sudanese people are placing high hopes on the Turkish initiative to end their suffering, which has persisted since the war began in mid-April 2023.

Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Burhanettin Durmuş, speaking to journalists at the end of his visit to Sudan, emphasized the importance of “restoring peace and stopping the war,” as well as Turkey’s role and willingness to contribute to this matter. Sudanese Acting Foreign Minister Ali Yusuf, in his joint statement with his Turkish counterpart, did not refer to “ending Sudanese-Emirati differences,” but rather said that the initiative approved by Sudanese Sovereign Council President Abdel Fattah al-Burhan would have significant implications and “could lead to genuine efforts to achieve peace in Sudan.”

Durmuş, who visited Sudan as a special envoy for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, also spoke about Turkey’s support for regional and international initiatives aimed at halting the armed conflict in Sudan, alleviating human suffering, and preserving Sudan’s unity, stability, and security, and that Turkey would make the necessary efforts to achieve these goals. Sudanese Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim, after meeting the visiting Turkish official, expressed his support for the Turkish initiative, calling it “the Turkish initiative for achieving peace in Sudan.”

Meetings Between the Warring Sides’ Leadership?

According to analysts, what has been circulating behind the scenes regarding the Turkish mediation is that Ankara will not limit its efforts to resolving Sudanese-Emirati differences, as it did with Ethiopia and Somalia, but will play a role in halting the war and achieving reconciliation between the warring sides in Sudan. The goal is to facilitate direct or indirect meetings between the leadership of both sides of the conflict.

Political analyst Mohamed Latif told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Turkish initiative was likely designed in consultation with the UAE, which also seeks to play a role in ending the war in Sudan.

Latif explained that the differences between Sudan and the UAE are not significant, stating, “They are almost manufactured differences, as the interests of both sides are substantial, especially with the Port Sudan government. Also, the position of Islamists in Sudan is not principled as much as it is linked to securing their interests.”

Latif sees the Turkish initiative as a great opportunity and believes it could succeed in bringing the leadership of both warring sides back to the negotiating table. He anticipates that “the UAE will not be a party to these negotiations, as the Port Sudan government considered the UAE a suitable mediator during the (Manama Platform) negotiations. Therefore, I do not see the negotiations being with the UAE but rather between the two warring sides in Sudan.”

According to Latif, Ankara’s initiative relies on the UAE’s role in assisting Turkey in solving the Sudanese crisis. He clarified, “The correct reading of the initiative is not a mediation between Sudan and the UAE, but rather that Turkey is depending on the UAE to help with mediation to resolve the Sudanese crisis.” Latif speculated that the UAE’s role would be to exert pressure on the RSF, offer guarantees to the army, and influence civilian forces to accept a potential settlement, as the UAE has relationships with all three parties. He added, “Turkey has correctly understood the UAE’s role, which is why it proposed solving the problem this way.”