Opinion

Military Victories and Political Setbacks

As I See It

Adel Al-Baz

As the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) accelerate their victories and maintain steady advances on all fronts, it has become clear that the deteriorating situation within the militia is hastening its internal collapse. At the same time, the militia is facing increasing external pressure, including the disintegration of its alliances with both the “Taqaddum” coalition and its regional supporters.

First, let’s examine what is happening within “Taqaddum,” the militia’s main political ally. Its internal fractures have reached a critical level, especially after some of its members decided to announce an exile/peace government in areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This proposal has been discussed for a long time, dating back to early last year. The idea resurfaced during meetings in Kampala at the end of the year, nearly derailing the discussions. Now, as some Darfur figures, opportunists from northern Sudan, and certain armed movements finalize plans for this government, the RSF has reportedly suspended consultations with groups seeking to establish it, according to Sudan Tribune. Meanwhile, Babiker Faisal of the Federal Gathering has stated that forming an exile/peace government would mean the inevitable collapse of “Taqaddum.” Others within the coalition argue that such a move would further divide Sudan and would be counterproductive, given the militia’s current battlefield setbacks. All of this points to a clear disintegration of the political front that was carefully constructed over the past two years to support the militia. These fractures deepen with each new victory by the SAF.

Inside the militia itself, various internal crises are unfolding. The most apparent issue is the frequent battlefield withdrawals, which the RSF labels as “tactical retreats.” However, these have become a defining characteristic of their combat strategy. The RSF is now largely reliant on snipers, but the SAF has found effective countermeasures. Meanwhile, the militia faces growing shortages of supplies and ammunition, and looting opportunities are dwindling. The Sudanese people’s rising hatred toward the RSF, its mercenaries, and its backers has further weakened the militia’s morale, leading to increasing defections and battlefield surrenders. Even the RSF’s core tribal support base is losing faith in the group’s ability to secure their regions, leading to declining recruitment and a refusal among many to join the fight.

Externally, the militia is also under mounting pressure, particularly after the U.S. formally accused it of committing genocide. Since this declaration, several countries—including former RSF supporters—have distanced themselves from the militia. The RSF’s main foreign benefactor recently claimed to have halted its support, attempting to signal compliance with the outgoing Biden administration. However, in its final days, the administration informed Congress that these claims were false and that the benefactor was still actively backing the militia. The crucial takeaway here is that this foreign patron is beginning to calculate the costs of its continued involvement.

Meanwhile, Sudan’s Foreign Minister Ali Youssef recently stated that Kenya has shifted its stance on the Sudanese conflict, with President William Ruto even receiving an invitation to Port Sudan. The reason for this shift is clear—Kenya has realized that the RSF will not defeat the Sudanese army, and the financial incentives (bribes) it previously received from the RSF have dried up. While Kenya’s change of heart is a positive development, caution is necessary, as figures like Ruto remain unreliable. The RSF’s markets for hiring mercenaries—whether politicians or soldiers—are still active.

Similarly, Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar has suddenly issued a lengthy statement denying any support for the RSF and even offering to mediate a resolution to the Sudanese crisis. This deception is blatant—RSF convoys continue to cross the Libyan border into Sudan, fully armed. Haftar only made his statement after witnessing the militia’s collapse and sensing the potential consequences for his own position once Sudan successfully crushes the RSF.

Across the board, allies of the militia are reassessing their positions and withdrawing their support. While these developments are welcome, they must be approached with caution. As long as the militia’s backers remain capable of bribing officials, policy shifts cannot be fully trusted—especially from governments and leaders who lack principles or regional solidarity.

Now, with the militia’s internal fractures growing, its external alliances eroding, and its battlefield defeats piling up, its inevitable fate is clear. The RSF has no choice but to gather its mercenaries and leave Sudan’s land and skies once and for all.

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