Does the United States recognize Somaliland?

Ambassador Abd al-Mahmoud Abd al-Halim

In William Shakespeare’s “Hamlet,” Hamlet returns to the Kingdom of Denmark burdened with sorrow and desires for revenge after his father’s murder by his uncle Claudius, who then marries his mother, the queen, who conspired with the killer. The ghost of the slain king appears and informs his son of all this, urging him to seek vengeance. The scent of revenge fills the air. “Marcellus,” one of the palace officers, famously says, “There’s something rotten in the state of Denmark” as he watches the king’s ghost scaling the palace walls. If that statement has since become a proverb due to the contradictions, corruption, and conspiracies in politics, as well as the desires for control, submission, and the relationship between the moral legitimacy of the ruler and the public health of the political community, that scent still lingers with those who fan the flames of it across the world. It’s likely that the people of Denmark saw U.S. President Trump’s demands for Greenland, which is part of their territory, as a chapter from “Hamlet,” just as Mexico, Panama, and Canada did. We also notice that the current international climate, overshadowed by tension and suspicion, has given rise to a new political tone from European leaders. These leaders now play tunes we haven’t heard from them before, such as “the need for non-intervention in internal affairs,” “respect for sovereignty,” and “the need to respect territorial integrity.” We used to think that these cries came only from the Global South before the powerful winds of Trumpism and the sweeping influence of Elon Musk reached Europe. Perhaps one of the notable observations worthy of reflection is the weakening and loss of the research and monitoring centers’ ability to predict the outcomes of events in this turbulent period of international relations. This is clearly evident in the contrasting and conflicting views about what the new occupant of the White House will do regarding the various issues currently preoccupying the world. It is true that we can apply the words of Abu Tammam in his poem “The Conquest of Amoria”: “And scare the people with the dark dread when the Western star with its tail appears.” The new U.S. president seems like a mysterious entity that is hard to read or predict.

And while Africa is the least favored region in the United States’ presidential debates, its countries must remain alert to what may not be in their calculations. One example is the article recently written by Jendai Fraser, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, and Hoover Institution researcher at Stanford University, with her colleague Oliver MacPherson, discussing the potential for U.S. recognition of Somaliland, which was rumored that the Trump administration might decide upon. The article titled “The Kosovo Conditions and the Case for American Unilateral Recognition of Somaliland” gained traction following the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland to recognize the latter in exchange for owning a base and access to the sea. This event was one of the reactions to the “Ankara Declaration” brokered by Turkey between Somalia and Ethiopia, where both parties affirmed the sovereignty and territorial unity of Somalia while also agreeing on various benefits from Ethiopia’s engagement, with the details and protocols expected to be finalized by mid-year. The two sides agreed to work closely to achieve positive results regarding mutual economic interests through bilateral agreements, including contracts, leases, and other means.

The call for U.S. unilateral recognition of Somaliland is based on the fact that, unlike its recognition of East Timor in 2002, Montenegro in 2006, and South Sudan in 2011—cases where the U.S. joined international consensus—Washington recognized Kosovo in 2008 without international consensus, even though Kosovo had not received recognition from nearly half of the United Nations’ membership. The article argues that the U.S. unilateral recognition of Kosovo served American vital interests and that the “Kosovo case” can be replicated and applied to Somaliland, as it shares the same characteristics, conditions, and requirements that led to the recognition of Kosovo. The article describes Somaliland as prosperous and democratic, having resisted for thirty years calls for reunification with Somalia, which is ravaged by wars. It has also resisted Beijing’s pressures to stop cooperating with Taiwan. The article argues that Somaliland serves U.S. interests in democracy, economic growth, and the stability of maritime routes at the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, in addition to its complete control of the country, its democratic experience, and the diminishing chances of reunification with the motherland. The thesis recommends informing concerned parties, such as the African Union and Somaliland’s neighbors, about the U.S. decision. The article also notes that the U.S. has expressed appreciation for Somaliland’s insistence on strengthening its relations with Taiwan, which might prompt the Trump administration to take steps beyond the 1979 U.S. law governing relations with Taiwan, establishing official relations with Taiwan.

Before the Turkish mediation between Ethiopia and Somalia, one of the scenarios for Ethiopia to gain access to the sea was to model the U.S. approach to Taiwan and China, where the U.S. recognizes only one China but maintains strong relations with Taiwan, including arms supply and security. If the U.S. recognizes Somaliland, it would serve Ethiopia’s interests further. As these speculations and anticipations grow, all circles are awaiting the completion of the protocols and agreements specified in the “Ankara Declaration,” which should reconcile Ethiopia’s affirmation of respecting Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial unity with its access to the sea. Various circles are also closely following messages from Somaliland’s new president, Abdirahman Abdullahi, who is said to be more inclined toward engaging with Somalia than his predecessor, Musa Bihi, who signed the agreement with Abiy Ahmed. The Somali president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, recently visited Addis Ababa, where he reached an agreement with Ethiopia to activate and enhance relations between the two countries across various fields. Social media noted that during the Somali president’s reception in Ethiopia, the Ethiopian navy carried out the honor guard, with some speculating that this reflects a “nautical” message from Abiy Ahmed to the Somali president. It seems we are witnessing the final chapters of “Hamlet.”