Phase Three of the Army’s Operations: Unveiling the Next Battlefield in Sudan

Sudan Events – Agencies

The Sudanese army has announced a new phase in its military operations against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), following the lifting of the siege on the General Command of the Armed Forces and the unification of its forces in Bahri and Omdurman with those at the headquarters on January 24. This marked the completion of the second phase of operations and the beginning of the third. So, what will the next stage of military operations in Sudan entail?

Absorbing the Shock

On April 17, 2023—just two days after the war erupted—the Sudanese army declared that its forces had successfully completed the first phase, which involved absorbing the initial shock and securing key positions. It stated that conditions were now set to transition to the next stage, with reinforcements and expanded security operations.

This was followed by intense battles between the Sudanese army and the RSF. Eventually, on September 26, 2024, the army carried out its largest military operation since the war began, crossing the White Nile and Halfiya Bridges to reclaim central Khartoum and Khartoum Bahri, which it has recently brought under its control.

According to journalist and political analyst Ibrahim Shaqlawi, the Sudanese army has been following a gradual warfare strategy, aiming for incremental victories to minimize human and material losses while exhausting the enemy’s logistical resources.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Shaqlawi noted that with the completion of the second phase, the army is now moving into the third phase, known as “breaking the backbone.” He suggested that this phase could be the final stage of the Sudan war and a turning point in the conflict.

This phase is expected to focus on clearing rural and remote areas, as well as continuing to cleanse major cities like Khartoum, Omdurman, Bahri, and East Nile, using tactics such as “centralized engagement” and “deep control.”

The Battlefield Landscape

The Sudanese army has made significant advances on multiple fronts, particularly in Khartoum, according to Fath Al-Aleem Al-Shoubly, commander of special operations in Sennar State. He emphasized Khartoum’s strategic importance as the capital and political decision-making center and highlighted that the army’s recent victories in Bahri and its advance toward liberating the Republican Palace have been militarily devastating for the militias.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Al-Shoubly stated that with the launch of the third phase, the army is moving forward to liberate the remaining areas under RSF control in South, North, and Southeast Khartoum.

As the RSF faces continuous setbacks and retreats, time becomes a critical factor in preventing them from regrouping after recent defeats, according to Al-Shoubly.

A Four-Phase Strategy

Youssef Omara Abu San, a member of the Sudan Shield Forces’ Support Committee—which participated in the second phase of army operations—believes that the Sudanese army has been conducting its campaign in four distinct phases:

1. Phase One: Absorbing the initial attack and concentrating RSF forces in the capital, which later led them to expand into Darfur and Gezira. This move ultimately drained their military resources and logistical capabilities.

2. Phase Two: Shifting to territorial gains, closing the resource gap between the army and the RSF, and recapturing 80% of Bahri and Omdurman, as well as 30% of Khartoum.

A Unified Strategy Across Multiple Fronts

According to Osama Eidrous, a professor of strategic and security studies, the next phase will be about capitalizing on recent victories. He told Al Jazeera Net that the army is executing a coordinated strategy across multiple fronts, including El Fasher in North Darfur, Babanousa in West Kordofan, El-Obeid in North Kordofan, and both Gezira and East Nile states.

Eidrous added that this phase will secure complete control over Gezira and East Nile, while expanding military operations west of the Nile, posing a direct threat to RSF forces in Darfur, particularly in El Geneina, Nyala, Ed Daein, and Zalingei—extending to Sudan’s borders.

The Third Phase Begins

Beyond the intense battles in the capital, the Sudanese army has also continued its advances in other regions. It recently retook the city of Um Rawaba in North Kordofan, which had been under RSF control since September 2023, and repelled RSF attacks on El Fasher in North Darfur.

Youssef Omara, from the Sudan Shield Forces, told Al Jazeera Net that the third phase of the army’s campaign will focus on East Nile and southern Khartoum.

He explained that this phase aims to fully liberate the capital while completing the recapture of Gezira State, as East Nile is connected to East Gezira, and southern Khartoum is linked to the towns of Kamelin, Al-Hasahisa, and Abu Quta in Gezira State.

Phase Four, according to Omara, will involve shifting military focus to Darfur’s regional capitals, using all available military units and operations to liberate them.

By securing Um Rawaba and advancing toward the cities of Rahad and Bara, Omara said, the army will be able to lift the siege on the Haggana Forces, allowing them to take the lead in clearing North and West Kordofan of RSF pockets.

The Fate of Civilians

Despite these advances, Fath Al-Aleem Al-Shoubly sees little chance of civilians returning during the third phase. Instead, he predicts forced evacuations and displacements from RSF-controlled areas, as they are likely to become intense battlegrounds.

Brigadier General Sir Al-Khatim Adrob, commander of special operations, told Al Jazeera Net that large portions of Sudan’s urban areas are already secure, and only a few remaining RSF strongholds need to be cleared before this phase concludes.

He also suggested that the Sudanese army may take legal action against foreign states that directly or indirectly supported the rebellion, presenting evidence to the international community.

Looking beyond the conflict, Adrob believes that the post-war phase will focus on reconstruction, national reconciliation, and rebuilding Sudanese social cohesion, which he claims the RSF sought to destroy. He vowed that the Sudanese army will continue to hunt down RSF forces and foreign mercenaries across Sudan until stability is fully restored.

(Source: Al Jazeera Net)