Is Sudan Replacing America with a New Partner?

Dr. Yasser Mahjoub

In a world where major powers compete for influence, the results of Sudan’s foreign minister’s visit to Russia sent political and media shockwaves, provoking international and regional powers.

This visit was not just a routine diplomatic event but a historic turning point, marked by the signing of an agreement for a Russian naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast. In a joint press conference in Moscow, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssef confidently declared, “There are no obstacles; we are in full agreement.”

The idea of a Russian naval base was first proposed in 2017, and by 2020, Russia renewed its interest, taking serious steps forward. This represents a bold move to strengthen Russia’s presence in a strategically vital region that serves as a major artery for global trade.

The planned naval base is not just a military facility; it is a fully integrated fortress capable of hosting nuclear-powered warships and accommodating up to 300 personnel, including military and civilian staff. It can dock four warships simultaneously for repairs and resupply, making it a strategic hub for Russian forces in the region.

However, this development has sparked deep concern in Washington, which sees it as a direct threat to U.S. interests in the Red Sea. Cameron Hudson, a former White House official specializing in the Horn of Africa, described this move as a “major crisis” that could cross Washington’s red lines. Currently, both Burhan and Putin are under U.S. sanctions, which could psychologically unite them in defying American “arrogance.”

Sudan’s Strategic Interests

Sudan, with its 760-kilometer coastline along the Red Sea, views this base as a golden opportunity to bolster its national security. Sudan’s navy, which requires substantial development, stands to gain unprecedented support.

Additionally, the base could serve as a defensive shield against Israeli airstrikes launched from the Red Sea, which have gone unchallenged. It could also disrupt smuggling routes previously exploited due to Sudan’s weak maritime defenses. Moreover, it could help revive Sudan’s commercial shipping sector, which once boasted a powerful fleet but deteriorated due to neglect and corruption, with some ships being sold as scrap for a fraction of their value.

When Sudan agreed to Russia’s proposal years ago, Moscow promptly dispatched a high-ranking military delegation led by the Deputy Minister of Defense, followed by a diplomatic visit by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

However, Washington quickly reacted, imposing sanctions and pressure on Sudan, while offering to supply F-16 fighter jets—only to later deliver outdated aircraft. In contrast, Russia provided Sudan with its latest warplanes, which played a significant role in Sudanese military victories against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia.

Beyond military aid, Russia has actively supported Sudan in international forums, using its influence in the UN Security Council to block harsher sanctions and oppose Western interference in Sudan’s internal affairs.

A New Strategic Partner?

Has Sudan finally identified its true allies in times of crisis? Can Russia become a strategic partner offering alternatives in finance, trade, energy, agriculture, and defense? What challenges could hinder Sudan-Russia cooperation, given Western pressure, regional competition, and Sudan’s internal instability?

Historical Background and Areas of Cooperation

Sudan and Russia’s relations date back to the Soviet era, with the USSR establishing diplomatic ties in 1956 after Sudan’s independence. Relations fluctuated with Sudan’s political shifts, but the Soviets provided military and economic aid during the 1960s and 1970s, particularly under Ibrahim Abboud and Jaafar Nimeiri.

However, as Sudan tilted toward the West in the 1970s, ties with Moscow weakened. Relations were revived after Omar al-Bashir’s coup in 1989, strengthening further after the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. Russia supported Sudan politically in the UN, provided military and economic aid, and played a key role in Sudan’s oil and mining sectors.

Following Bashir’s ousting in 2019, Russia remained a strong backer of the Sudanese military, despite delays in establishing a naval base in Port Sudan due to Western pressure and Sudan’s internal instability.

Today, Sudan is actively seeking closer ties with Russia for political, economic, and military support, especially as it faces Western sanctions and domestic instability. Russia, in turn, is expanding its investments in Sudan’s oil, mining, and agriculture sectors, capitalizing on Sudan’s vast reserves of oil, gold, and minerals. Russian companies like Zarubezhneft and Lukoil are deepening their involvement in Sudan’s energy sector.

In the military sphere, Russia is one of Sudan’s largest arms suppliers, providing advanced air defense systems such as Buk and Pantsir missiles, as well as MiG-29 and Su-24 fighter jets, and T-72 tanks. Russian military training programs have strengthened Sudan’s air force and intelligence services. There are also reports of Wagner Group operations in Sudan, offering security support in exchange for mining concessions.

A Shift Away from the West?

From 1997 to 2020, Sudan suffered U.S. sanctions, isolating it from the global financial system. In this context, Russia could serve as an alternative partner, facilitating financial transactions through non-SWIFT payment systems like MIR, and promoting bilateral trade using local currencies. Russia’s investments in oil and gas could also help Sudan compensate for lost Western investments.

Sudan and Russia have significant potential for economic expansion, given Sudan’s natural resources and Russia’s demand for raw materials. Russia could invest in gold, uranium, and other minerals, as well as oil and gas infrastructure, helping Sudan export processed goods instead of raw materials.

Impact on U.S. and Allied Interests

Sudan’s growing ties with Russia could disrupt U.S. interests in the region, especially in the context of the Moscow-Washington rivalry. A stronger Russian presence in the Horn of Africa—a key region near Bab el-Mandeb—could undermine U.S. influence and alter the security balance in favor of Moscow.

Economically, Russia’s investments in Sudan could challenge U.S. interests, reducing Sudan’s dependency on Western aid. If other regional nations follow Sudan’s lead, Russia’s influence in Africa could expand at America’s expense.

Washington’s response will be critical. The U.S. may:

Strengthen ties with rival regional powers

Increase military and economic aid

Apply diplomatic and economic pressure on Sudan

Coordinate with European allies to counter Sudan-Russia ties

If Washington perceives Sudan’s alignment with Russia as a direct threat, it may take stronger diplomatic or even military actions. Otherwise, the U.S. might opt for containment strategies to limit Russian influence without escalating tensions.

Challenges and Future Prospects

Sudan faces serious internal challenges that could hinder its partnership with Russia. Political instability since Bashir’s fall in 2019 creates uncertainty, complicating long-term agreements with Russia—especially if future leadership changes policies.

Economically, Sudan’s high inflation, foreign currency shortages, and weak public services make it difficult to fulfill financial commitments in major deals with Russia. Social unrest may further pressure the government and restrict its foreign policy options.

Ongoing armed conflicts in Darfur and South Kordofan pose security risks, potentially hindering military cooperation with Russia. These conflicts also affect Sudan’s global reputation, making international partners more cautious.

Ultimately, Sudan’s future depends on balancing its ties with Russia and the U.S.. If managed wisely, Sudan could leverage both relationships for economic and security gains. However, missteps could escalate geopolitical tensions, making Sudan a battleground for major power struggles.