The Rapid Support Government: Controversy and Signs of Division

Report by: Alawia Mukhtar

For the third time, political and civil forces, along with armed movements allied with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), have postponed signing the political charter for forming a parallel government. The signing was initially scheduled for Friday in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.

Sources informed Al-Sudani that the Kenyan government is facing international and regional pressure to retract this step and prevent the announcement of the parallel government on its soil.

Internal and External Criticism

Domestically, Kenya’s move has been met with strong criticism from Kenyan writers and officials, some of whom have described it as “playing with fire.” They stressed that Kenya must bear full responsibility for the consequences.

The event initially planned for signing the founding charter of the parallel government turned into a celebration on Tuesday in Nairobi, announcing the formation of the Founding Sudan Alliance. Participants included the leader of the National Umma Party, Fadlallah Burma Nasir, leaders from the Revolutionary Front, the leader of the SPLM-North, Abdulaziz Adam Al-Hilu, and the deputy commander of the RSF, Abdul Rahim Dagalo, along with various civil and political forces and traditional leaders.

This development has been widely criticized both locally and internationally, particularly targeting the Kenyan government for hosting the event.

In response, the government in Port Sudan summoned its ambassador in Nairobi for consultations regarding the next steps. Sources told Al-Sudani that the Sudanese government is considering severing diplomatic ties with Kenya and launching a diplomatic campaign at regional and international levels to counter Kenya’s position, which it described as hostile to Sudan’s stability.

Sudanese Interior Minister’s Criticism

Sudanese Interior Minister Khalil Basha Sairin denounced the Kenyan government’s decision to host members of the rebel militia and its allies, arguing that this threatens Sudan’s unity and stability. He stated that Nairobi’s actions disregard diplomatic and trade relations between the two countries and violate the principles of the African Union and UN charters.

Kenya Defends Its Position

The Kenyan government defended its stance, arguing that it hosted Sudanese political forces seeking to establish a parallel government with no hidden agenda. In a statement, Kenya’s Prime Minister asserted that the move was based on the belief that there was no viable solution to Sudan’s crisis. He emphasized the need to balance security objectives with restoring civilian governance for democracy and prosperity in Sudan. Kenya also framed the RSF’s proposed roadmap and leadership structure as consistent with its role in peace negotiations, which require it to provide neutral platforms for all parties in the conflict.

UN Warning

The United Nations has warned against forming a parallel government in Sudan, stating that such a step could “exacerbate the ongoing crisis.”

In a statement, UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ spokesperson expressed concern over the RSF’s planned announcement of a parallel government, warning that it could deepen divisions in Sudan and further complicate the situation.

Domestic Protests

Political forces and civil organizations have swiftly condemned the planned government, considering it an attempt to fragment the country. Some have even accused its backers of betrayal.

Meanwhile, the National Umma Party distanced itself from its leader Fadlallah Burma’s involvement. Sources within the party told Al-Sudani that all attempts to dissuade Burma from engaging in the parallel government have failed, and efforts are underway to remove him from his position.

A Domestic Government?

The coalition backing the upcoming government has reportedly finalized its constitutional framework and governing structures, which will be announced from within Sudan.

Former Democratic Unionist Party leader Ibrahim Ahmed Al-Mirghani stated in a speech that the founding coalition had agreed on forming what he called a “peace government,” emphasizing that its announcement would take place inside the country.

According to sources, the anticipated government will mirror Sudan’s current administration, with a Sovereign Council, a Prime Minister, 20 ministers, and a transitional period, along with a unified military.

A Storm in a Teacup?

Journalist Dr. Mohamed Jalal Hashim downplayed the impact of the proposed government, stating that it is merely a security blanket for those involved. In an audio recording shared on social media, he described the Nairobi event as a political seminar rather than a formal government formation.

Hashim argued that the RSF’s chaotic nature and failure to establish a functioning state undermine their ambitions. He pointed to atrocities committed by the RSF in areas recaptured by the army, dismissing the Nairobi event as a last-ditch effort by the UAE before shifting to economic and military pressure tactics.

Key Questions

Several questions have been raised regarding the purpose and functionality of the parallel government. Will it operate from within Sudan, or is it merely a façade to gain international recognition, which could allow the RSF to acquire fighter jets and advanced air defense systems, potentially escalating foreign intervention?

Military expert Ali Mirghani noted that Kenya’s decision to host the signing event effectively grants implicit recognition to the parallel government before its formation. He suggested that Chad might follow suit, given its alignment with the RSF.

Mirghani also speculated that Abdulaziz Al-Hilu’s involvement in the alliance was orchestrated by Juba, which he believes could recognize the new government due to its recent oil deal with the UAE.

Speaking to Al-Sudani, Mirghani warned that if the RSF-led government secures recognition from any state, it could shift the balance of power by enabling the RSF to obtain military aircraft and advanced air defense systems.

He emphasized the need for Sudan’s government to mount a stronger diplomatic response at African, Arab, and international levels to contain the situation and counter states that facilitated the Nairobi conference.

Mirghani also stressed the importance of preemptive military measures, stating: “I believe the military leadership has carefully analyzed the conference and is preparing for all possible scenarios.”

A Dangerous Development

Political analyst Wael Mahjoub described the Nairobi developments as highly dangerous, with significant domestic and international implications. He compared the situation to the Libyan experience, warning of serious risks.

Mahjoub expressed particular concern over Abdulaziz Al-Hilu’s involvement, as he had previously remained neutral in the war. Al-Hilu controls key areas in South Kordofan, which could increase the credibility of the parallel government and pave the way for regional and international recognition, especially from neighboring states bordering RSF-controlled areas.

Mahjoub warned that if the parallel government begins issuing official documents, establishing a local currency, and opening banks, Sudan could face internal fragmentation.

He also suggested that Al-Hilu’s forces might attempt to expand their control over all of South Kordofan, which could intensify fighting, particularly for control of El-Fasher.

A Complex Scene

As Sudan’s crisis continues to unfold, both political and military options remain on the table. With ongoing foreign interventions shaping the conflict’s trajectory, the Nairobi developments may only mark the beginning of further shifts in Sudan’s political and military landscape. The country appears to be on the verge of a new and uncertain phase in its internal struggle.

(Source: Al-Sudani)