South Sudan at a Crossroads: Will Arrests Lead to a New Conflict?
Sudan Events – Agencies
The official spokesperson for the opposition in South Sudan, Val Mai Deng, confirmed that the situation in Nasir is moving toward de-escalation following the intervention of Vice President and leader of the SPLM-IO, Riek Machar. Machar made direct contact with the armed group in the city, reaching an understanding to halt the escalation.
Arrest of the Petroleum Minister and Prominent Opposition Leaders
In a parallel development, Deng revealed during a press conference on Wednesday, March 5, 2025, that Petroleum Minister Fout Kang Chol and seven members of the SPLM-IO were arrested on Thursday morning in Juba. Additionally, three army generals loyal to the opposition were also detained. Deng described these arrests as a threat to the Revitalized Peace Agreement, calling for their immediate release.
He also noted that the evacuation of the army commander in Nasir, Major General Major Majiok, along with other military personnel, could take place at any moment amid ongoing efforts to defuse military tensions in the region.
Escalation Following Arrests of Senior Military Leaders
This development comes just a day after the arrest of the Deputy Chief of Defense Forces in the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces, General Gabriel Duop Lam, the acting Chief of Staff of the SPLA-IO, and the Chairman of the Joint Defense Board. These arrests have raised growing concerns about the future of the peace agreement in the country.
General Gabriel Duop Lam is considered one of the key figures loyal to Vice President Riek Machar, further fueling fears of escalating tensions between the opposition and the government.
Background of the Tensions: Nasir Clashes and Mass Displacement
The current tensions date back to mid-January, when violent clashes erupted in Nasir County, Upper Nile State. The clashes were triggered by an attack launched by the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces on civilians in a market, leading to the displacement of thousands and injuring dozens, including a peacekeeping force member.
Revitalized Peace Agreement at Risk
The Revitalized Peace Agreement was signed in 2018 to end South Sudan’s bloody civil war, establishing a transitional period led by President Salva Kiir Mayardit and First Vice President Riek Machar, the opposition leader. However, repeated clashes between government and opposition forces, along with the frequent arrests of opposition leaders, threaten to derail the agreement and push the country back into armed conflict.
Calls for Urgent International Intervention
During his press conference, Val Mai Deng urged international partners and guarantors of the Revitalized Peace Agreement to intervene immediately to contain the situation before it spirals out of control. He emphasized the need for the release of detainees and an end to any escalation that could plunge the country back into war.
