Five Key Points Explaining the Situation in South Sudan
Sudan Events – Agencies
South Sudan is witnessing ongoing military and political tensions between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his First Vice President Riek Machar, which have escalated to the point of armed confrontations in recent weeks. This has raised fears of a new civil war.
Various regions of the country have experienced a noticeable increase in violence, with a series of deadly clashes and political arrests, raising concerns about the collapse of the fragile 2018 peace agreement that ended a civil war following South Sudan’s secession from Sudan after a 2011 referendum.
How Did the Current Events Start?
Disputes over troop rotation in Nasir, Upper Nile State, led to armed clashes involving a militia aligned with Vice President Riek Machar. The clashes resulted in the death of the general in charge of the area and several government soldiers. In response, President Salva Kiir Mayardit made sweeping changes to the state’s leadership, removing supporters of Machar.
The reshuffle included the removal of Vice President James Wani Igga, who was replaced by the president’s influential businessman brother-in-law, who holds significant political and economic influence.
Other key figures known for their ties to Sudan were also dismissed, including security advisor Tut Gatluak, who was appointed as ambassador to Kuwait.
These developments fueled rumors that Kiir’s government had decided to disarm some tribal youth, particularly the so-called “White Army” linked to the Nuer tribe, to which Machar belongs. This reportedly led to clashes that killed the army commander in Nasir and several government soldiers during an attack on a UN aircraft transporting them—an incident condemned by the UN.
The government responded with a wave of arrests targeting generals and ministers from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), led by Machar.
Who Are the Parties Involved?
The ongoing conflict, which has lasted for years, stems largely from a power struggle between the Dinka and Nuer tribes. This rivalry fueled multiple military confrontations, including the five-year civil war from 2013 to 2018 that claimed around 400,000 lives and ended with a fragile 2018 peace agreement.
The First Side: President Salva Kiir
Kiir’s power is backed by:
1. State institutions, including the army, security forces, and government bodies, which he uses to consolidate his rule and suppress opposition.
2. His Dinka tribe, one of the largest tribes in South Sudan and Africa, which played a key role in the struggle against Sudan before independence and sees itself as entitled to lead South Sudan.
3. Smaller allied tribes that benefit from political and economic incentives.
4. Regional allies like Uganda, which has already sent special forces to Juba at Kiir’s request. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni publicly declared support for Kiir against his rivals.
The Second Side: Vice President Riek Machar
Machar’s influence is supported by:
1. His position as vice president under the 2018 peace agreement, which mandates power-sharing with Kiir. He has loyal supporters within the army and security apparatus.
2. His personal ambition, as he views himself as more qualified to lead based on his academic background as a university professor and statesman—unlike Kiir, who rose to power through military ranks and tribal alliances.
3. His Nuer tribe, the second-largest in South Sudan, known for its strong warrior culture. The Nuer’s White Army, a powerful militia loyal to Machar, remains a key factor in his military strength.
4. A tribal myth among the Nuer that foretells a leader with gap teeth and no tribal scarifications, emerging after a long war to rule the south—traits that match Machar.
What Is Kiir’s Government’s Position on the Conflict?
Kiir’s government used state power to suppress what it described as a rebellion. It arrested a significant number of opposition figures, placed Machar under house arrest, and restricted access to his residence.
The government claimed to have evidence of the involvement of Machar’s detained allies in inciting conflict in Nasir and Olank, warning that arrests would continue if further evidence surfaced. Officials stated that the peace agreement “is not above the law.”
Following the escalation, Kiir gave a speech last Friday stressing his commitment to peace and rejecting a return to war. However, his request for Ugandan military support, which led to the deployment of special forces in Juba, has raised questions about the real nature of the situation.
Kiir also received a phone call from Sudanese Sovereign Council Chairman Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who, according to a council statement, “was briefed on the overall situation in South Sudan and reaffirmed Sudan’s commitment to supporting security and stability in the country.”
The African Union and Kenya have also called on South Sudan’s leaders to exercise restraint.
What Is the Position of Machar and His Allies?
Machar’s office issued a statement expressing deep regret over the loss of lives in Nasir and condemning the violence. The statement extended condolences to the family of the slain general and the other victims.
It stressed the urgent need to de-escalate tensions and engage in dialogue to prevent further violence. Machar’s office affirmed that resolving the crisis through peaceful means remains a top priority and that Machar is working with all stakeholders to restore peace.
However, the statement did not address the status of the Nuer forces, which have reportedly resisted the deployment of mixed government-opposition troops in Nasir as stipulated by the peace agreement.
Where Are the Current Events Heading?
Several international and regional actors are attempting to ease tensions in South Sudan, recognizing that uncontrolled conflict could threaten the country’s first general elections since independence, which were scheduled for this year but have been postponed to December 2026.
Sudan, as the sponsor of South Sudan’s peace agreement, is expected to intervene to defuse tensions, alongside the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
Analysts believe that the current crisis reflects unresolved issues within the 2018 peace agreement’s security arrangements. The agreement called for the integration of opposition forces into the national army and security apparatus, but this process remains incomplete.
Disagreements over the implementation of security arrangements have led to repeated extensions of the transitional period, which was originally supposed to end in 2022 but has now been extended to 2027.
The humanitarian situation in South Sudan remains dire. In November 2024, the United Nations reported that around 7.7 million people in South Sudan face severe food insecurity this year.
The suspension of oil production—South Sudan’s main source of revenue—due to the conflict in Sudan has worsened the country’s financial crisis. The resulting budget deficit has left the government unable to pay state salaries, leading to a sharp decline in the value of the local currency and deepening social unrest.
