Ban on Kenyan Products: An Economic Weapon

Report by Sanhouri Issa

The Sudanese government’s decision to ban the import of Kenyan products has sparked widespread reactions and significant approval. The ban is seen as a practical response to Kenya’s interference in Sudan’s internal affairs and its support for establishing a parallel government. Additionally, it serves as an economic pressure tool, demonstrating Sudan’s ability to impact the Kenyan economy by halting the importation of Kenyan goods.

According to media reports, Kenya’s economy has suffered heavy losses worth billions due to the impact on its tea industry following Sudan’s recent decision to stop importing Kenyan products. Sudan is the third-largest importer of Kenyan tea, purchasing approximately 10% of Kenya’s total annual tea production.

Reports indicate that the import ban has led to significant economic losses for Kenya, including 1.3 billion Kenyan shillings in shipments stranded at ports and about 207 containers of tea halted at the Mombasa port. Kenyan exporters have urgently appealed to their government for diplomatic intervention to restore trade relations with Sudan and prevent the collapse of the tea sector.

An Economic Weapon

Dr. Abbas Ali Al-Sayed, an economic expert, described Sudan’s decision to ban Kenyan imports as a long-overdue use of economic leverage against countries supporting the rebellion. He suggested that Sudan has several economic tools that could influence the stance of such countries. For example, gum arabic—a strategic commodity—could have been used as an economic weapon to pressure nations supporting the rebellion by restricting or threatening to halt its export.

Assessing the Benefits of the Ban

Dr. Abbas called for a thorough evaluation of the benefits of banning Kenyan imports and other products as a means of pressuring countries to change their stance on Sudan. He also emphasized the need to encourage local production of tea and coffee, leveraging Sudan’s diverse climate and previous agricultural experiments.

Impact on the Kenyan Economy

Similarly, Dr. Adel Abdel Aziz, another economic expert, stated that Sudan’s ban on Kenyan goods, particularly tea, would have a noticeable impact on Kenya’s economy. He added that the economic consequences would be even greater if Sudan were to ban Kenyan airlines from flying over its territory in response to the Kenyan government’s support for opposition groups, including the Al-Dalqo militia, which is engaged in conflict with the Sudanese military.

Kenya’s total exports in 2021 amounted to approximately $6.2 billion, while its imports stood at around $13 billion. The country primarily exports tea, flowers, gold, fruits, and coffee to destinations such as Uganda, the United States, the UAE, the Netherlands, and Pakistan. Meanwhile, Kenya imports petroleum products, palm oil, wheat, pharmaceuticals, and iron from China, the UAE, India, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia.

Sudan’s Imports from Kenya

Dr. Adel Abdel Aziz noted that in 2022, Sudan imported Kenyan goods worth $72 million, with tea accounting for $45 million and beverages and tobacco totaling $17 million. In contrast, Sudan’s exports to Kenya amounted to only $6 million, mainly in maize, which was valued at $5 million.

The trade balance between the two countries heavily favors Kenya, and although the total trade volume is relatively small—around $23 million—the Sudanese boycott of Kenyan goods could have a substantial impact for two reasons.

First, Kenya prides itself on having a free-market economy and strives to avoid trade restrictions, particularly since most of its export-oriented industries are owned by foreign investors from India, the Netherlands, and other countries. Even some Sudanese businessmen invest in tea farming and production in Uganda.

Second, as a key member of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), Kenya benefits significantly from its membership. Sudan’s boycott could affect Kenya’s trade competitiveness, especially if Sudan influences Egypt—another major COMESA member—to adopt similar measures.

Potential Ban on Kenyan Airlines

Dr. Adel warned that if Sudan were to ban Kenya Airways from flying over its territory, the economic impact would be even greater. Kenya Airways, which operates in partnership with Dutch airline KLM, is a successful airline that relies on routes over Sudan to reach Europe. Given that Kenya’s economy heavily depends on tourism—particularly safari tourism favored by Europeans—higher air travel costs resulting from a Sudanese ban could significantly impact the industry.

He urged the Kenyan government to stop supporting the defeated Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and associated rebel groups, warning that Sudan’s economic actions would have painful consequences for Kenya.

A Major Shock

According to economic expert Dr. Haitham Mohamed Fathi, the ban has dealt a severe blow to Kenya. Tea accounts for more than 23% of Kenya’s export revenues, and Sudan is one of its biggest markets, purchasing about 10% of its annual tea production, valued at approximately $40–50 million.

Now, hundreds of containers are stuck at Mombasa port, while Kenyan exporters scramble for solutions amid a global decline in tea prices.

Sudanese Exports to Kenya

Dr. Haitham noted that Sudan exports various agricultural products, food items, and pharmaceuticals to Kenya. The ban is expected to significantly impact trade between the two countries.

A Powerful Tool

He also emphasized that Sudan is using the ban as a powerful tool, though it might lead to higher prices for Sudanese consumers. However, competing tea-producing countries have quickly stepped in, offering to replace Kenyan tea in the Sudanese market. Meanwhile, Kenyan tea exporters have suffered heavy losses and are now pressuring their government to negotiate with Sudan to allow the clearance of shipments already en route from Mombasa.

“I believe the ban could have severe economic consequences for Kenya’s tea trade,” Dr. Haitham said.

The Impact on Kenya’s Economy

Adil Al-Baz, editor-in-chief of Al-Ahdath newspaper, believes that Sudan’s ban on Kenyan imports will have a limited effect on Kenya’s economy, given its size. Kenya’s GDP stands at approximately $116.32 billion, while Sudan imports only 10% of Kenya’s tea exports, worth about $10 million annually.

The Biggest Impact

Al-Baz argued that the most significant impact would be on employment, as the tea industry is a crucial sector in Kenya, supporting around 10% of the population. The Kenya Tea Development Agency, which represents 650,000 farmers, is already witnessing direct consequences, with 207 containers stranded at Mombasa port. In response, Kenyan traders are urgently pushing their government to contact Sudanese authorities to reverse the ban.

A Major Challenge

He added that the biggest challenge for Kenya would be finding new markets outside Africa for its tea, which would take time and effort.

The Effect of the Decision

Economic expert Mohamed Sati believes that Sudan’s ban on Kenyan tea imports will not have a major impact on Kenya’s economy, given Sudan’s relatively small share of Kenyan tea exports. Countries like Pakistan and Egypt are much larger consumers of Kenyan tea.

In 2023, Kenya exported tea worth approximately $1.09 billion, while Sudan’s total imports from Kenya amounted to about $48.2 million, with $29.6 million being tea.

A Political Decision

Sati concluded that the decision is more political than economic and could negatively impact Sudanese companies with commercial ties and import contracts with Kenyan suppliers.