Sudan… The Magic Formula for Civil War!

Dr. Muhammad Al-Rumaihi

Even if the gunfire stops, the conflict that erupted in Sudan’s capital will leave deep scars on its people. Sudan has fallen into the dilemma of having two armed forces within one state and the military’s insatiable thirst for power.

For weeks at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019, the world closely followed events in Sudan, with hopes that the country was on its way to breaking free from an oppressive authoritarian regime that had ruled with a religious ideology, massive developmental failures, and hostility toward both the world and its neighbors. Many believed that this would be Sudan’s final struggle, a moment of awakening from its long misfortunes. However, the Sudanese uprising has continued to this day, fluctuating between progress and setbacks, with numerous agreements signed only to be discarded before sunrise. Sudan suffers from a crisis of identity, a condition that will persist, as the previous regime created a military duality that it assumed would protect it—only for the Sudanese people to become the ultimate victims.

The violent conflict has exploded between two military factions, both of which are products of the old regime—the system of Omar al-Bashir and his circle. The idea of handing power over to civilians in Sudan is unrealistic, and the sooner different factions acknowledge this truth, the better. The civilian component has failed repeatedly, as every civilian faction seeks complete dominance without recognizing the legitimacy of others. This is at the heart of Sudan’s crisis—both among civilians and the military.

Sudanese society is structurally inclined to embrace postponed solutions and destructive political behavior, leaving no room for development, progress, or stability. Today, the country is once again entangled in a web of conflict, where even the holy month of Ramadan did not prevent bloodshed. What was once fighting in the peripheries has now reached the capital, with civilians caught in the crossfire.

Sudan’s crisis is uniquely Sudanese—it is the failure to establish a modern state due to the persistent denial of its diversity (ethnic, regional, and economic). This is despite the country’s vast economic potential. The failure to manage these resources falls squarely on the shoulders of Sudan’s elite—both military and civilian.

Global statistics remind us that poverty rates in Sudan have reached 50% in recent years, with inflation soaring to 80%. Unemployment affects nearly a quarter of the population, which totals around 40 million people—meaning that 10 million Sudanese citizens are without jobs.

Sudan’s economic resources are enormous: it has 50 million cattle, yet suffers from a shortage of dairy products. By comparison, the Netherlands has only 5 million cattle but exports dairy products worldwide! Sudan is a country rich in resources yet plagued by a deficient national elite. Some studies suggest that if Sudan’s arable land were cultivated solely with alfalfa, its income could surpass that of Gulf countries from oil exports.

With fertile lands, vast agricultural areas, abundant water, livestock, fishery resources, one of the world’s largest copper reserves, and numerous gold mines, Sudan remains under the grip of a military rule intertwined with an exaggerated ideology that only its followers believe.

Is this a pathological blindness to modernization mechanisms, which are now well-known across the world? These mechanisms, when applied, transform societies. Sudan has been denied a safe passage to stability, leaving it adrift in a sea of confusion. The Sudanese elite remain trapped in a prolonged crisis, exhausting both the country’s people and its resources.

Sudan’s division and crises are, in large part, the result of a backward-looking project that has been sustained by myths and superstitions, none of which withstand rational scrutiny. The country has entered this prolonged conflict with a weary mind burdened by every form of political disability. As a result, Sudan lost half of itself, ignited wars within the remaining half, and still struggles to face reality.

Sudan has around 35 universities—though some exist in name only. Of its six major universities, only three have agricultural colleges, despite agriculture being the backbone of the country’s economy. Even more strangely, some universities have petroleum colleges, although oil resources are now controlled by South Sudan! Ironically, Sudan was once a leader in higher education in the Arab world, dating back to the early 20th century, and Sudanese professionals continue to succeed in international institutions.

The cycle continues, as Sudan’s elite resort once again to myths to explain the ongoing war, claiming it is a foreign conspiracy aimed at harming the country. The Sudanese masses are told to endure and resist these external plots! This may be a prime example of people seeing things without truly perceiving them—or perhaps a deliberate refusal to see reality.

Today, Sudan has more rockets and bullets than medicine, and an insatiable appetite for plundering wealth, even if it means destroying the capital itself.

There is no secret formula for successful governance—these principles are well-documented across the world. Societal transformation is possible, but it requires adherence to real-life values (not mythical ones), alongside a genuine will to achieve the greater good. This entails eliminating corruption, ensuring judicial independence, implementing scientific and prudent governance, investing in productive human capital, enacting modern and just laws, ensuring the peaceful transfer of power, and embracing diversity—among other fundamental political principles. Anyone involved in public affairs understands these concepts, yet Sudanese decision-makers deliberately ignore them.

Resorting to violence, as we witness today, while simultaneously playing the roles of both lions and foxes, and taking on burdens beyond the country’s capacity, does not offer solutions. It only creates further problems, accelerates a major explosion, and pushes Sudan—what remains of it—toward disintegration, rather than leading it to safe shores.

Clinging to myths, promoting conspiracy theories, or seizing power through military force—none of these are the building blocks of a modern state. Sudan may emerge from this current crisis with a temporary victor and a defeated party, but it will be a fleeting outcome. The ruling systems may change, but they, too, will be temporary. Security-based, slogan-driven, and militarized solutions will not lead Sudan to safety; rather, the country will remain in this state of uncertainty until someone emerges with a clear distinction between the governance of a modern state—where the availability of medicine surpasses that of bullets—and the failed attempts of the past.

Final Thought:
A well-known Sudanese proverb says: “A fishbone—neither swallowed nor spit out.”