Ethiopia Bans Its Activities on Its Soil… “Samood” Faces Growing Rejection

Sudan Events – Agencies

In an unexpected move, Ethiopian authorities have informed the Samood alliance, led by Abdalla Hamdok, of a ban on any of the alliance’s activities within Ethiopian territory. This includes prohibiting the peace and social fabric restoration workshop scheduled for March 25–26, without providing any explanation.

Most of the leaders of the Samood alliance reside in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, where they had been holding seminars, workshops, and activities without interference. So, what happened to make the Ethiopian authorities take such a firm stance toward their allies?

Multiple Reasons

Several changes have occurred both within Sudan and in the region. Sudan is no longer the Sudan of 2023. General Al-Burhan is no longer trapped in the basement of the General Command, and the Sudanese army is no longer fighting militias in remote areas — now the battles are within Khartoum itself, signaling that the conflict may be nearing its end. Experts view these developments as one of the reasons behind the recent shift in the African stance toward Sudan, including Ethiopia’s position.

Ethiopia, which needs the Sudanese government for issues like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and other matters, cannot afford to support a political body that lacks leverage, international backing, and still insists on neutrality despite changing political circumstances.

These changes are also linked to statements by Sovereign Council member General Yasir Al-Atta, who vowed retaliation against Chad and the UAE. While the UAE may be geographically distant from Sudan’s military reach, Ethiopia is not. Ethiopian leaders are aware that Sudan holds numerous pressure cards against Addis Ababa — including support for the Tigray Front, which previously came close to storming Addis Ababa. Against this backdrop, experts believe that by tightening restrictions on Samood leaders, Ethiopia aimed to offer a gesture of goodwill to the Sudanese government by preventing political figures — whom Abiy Ahmed had previously described as activists — from conducting opposition activities on Ethiopian soil.

Another Reason

Experts also link Ethiopia’s stance toward Samood with the recent visit of the Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister to Addis Ababa and several African countries, most of which neighbor Sudan. This suggests that the move primarily concerns Sudan. Saudi Arabia had previously rejected the parallel government that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seek to establish. Experts argue that Saudi Arabia’s recent engagement with Sudan’s neighboring countries aimed to support Khartoum and limit the UAE’s influence, which openly backs the insurgency. Thus, Ethiopia’s position toward the Samood alliance — which opposes the Sudanese government — may reflect Saudi-Ethiopian understandings.

A Third Reason

Some experts connect Ethiopia’s decision with the recent arrest of Samood leader Yasir Arman by Kenyan security forces in Nairobi. They see both events as part of the pressure exerted by the RSF and its ally, the UAE, on the Samood alliance as punishment for its refusal to join a government under militia sponsorship. They argue that Ethiopia would not have made such a decision independently without clear directives from its financial backer and patron, Tahnoun bin Zayed.

Dr. Mohammed Omar, a political science professor at Sudanese universities, described Ethiopia’s decision as another form of pressure on the Samood alliance. He suggested that Ethiopian leadership is under Emirati influence, indicating that Abu Dhabi escalated its measures after the “ear-pulling” tactic of Yasir Arman’s arrest in Kenya failed to deter the alliance. Omar expects further escalation against Samood in the coming days as part of a broader effort to pressure it into accepting a parallel government under militia control.

With growing American, European, African, and Arab rejection of the parallel government the RSF plans to announce, the political landscape is becoming increasingly hostile to any party that still labels itself as neutral. According to experts, Samood may soon find itself isolated and opposed by all influential parties.

(Source: Asda’a Sudanese)