The Fate of the Rapid Support Forces Leader After Defeat

Dr. Yasser Mahjoub Al-Hussein

In the spring of 2023, Sudan was plunged into a bloody armed conflict that erupted in mid-April between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia, placing the country on the brink of intense military confrontations.

Over the following months, the balance of power between the two sides fluctuated, as they alternated control over territories, achieved battlefield gains at times, and suffered heavy losses at others.

However, on March 28, 2025, the Sudanese army announced that it had launched an airstrike on RSF gatherings in Al-Fashir, affirming its full control over the capital, Khartoum.

This victory raises pressing questions across the country: Does this military success mark the beginning of a strategic shift heralding the imminent and complete demise of the RSF, or is it merely a fleeting triumph that could be reversed in the coming days?

In the wake of these rapid developments, the Sudanese army’s recapture of the Republican Palace and key ministries in Khartoum stands as a pivotal event laden with profound implications.

Does this regain signify a true restoration of state authority and institutions, signaling a decisive shift toward an inevitable end to the war? Or is it merely a symbolic military victory that does not necessarily guarantee comprehensive security and stability?

As these battlefield dynamics unfold, negotiations emerge as a possible scenario, particularly amid growing talk of the RSF’s defeat. This necessitates an exploration of the available options for the militia in this critical phase.

It is crucial to emphasize that any negotiation process will not be an end in itself but will be entirely dictated by the new reality imposed by the RSF’s defeat—no longer a mere speculation.

Nevertheless, the complex security and political challenges will persist even after the cessation of hostilities. What security challenges await Sudan in dismantling the remaining networks and ensuring that the specter of violence does not return?

Amid these developments, RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, may seek a political exit as the collapse of his forces becomes increasingly likely. However, his path is fraught with legal hurdles and mounting popular rejection.

The Defeat of the RSF: Implications and Meanings

Recent developments raise questions about whether the RSF is truly facing collapse or merely undergoing a phase of strategic repositioning and adaptation.

Reports indicate that the RSF has been grappling with significant logistical challenges, including substantial casualties, shortages in supplies and equipment, and devastating blows such as the destruction of ammunition depots in various states. Its legitimacy has eroded due to accusations of war crimes, as documented in UN reports and international condemnations, alongside a relative decline in regional support due to international pressure.

Despite these setbacks, the RSF retains some maneuverability and combat capability, particularly due to logistical support from Chad. This has allowed it to continue fighting in Darfur’s border areas, preventing a definitive defeat. While complete collapse may be premature, the RSF is undoubtedly experiencing strategic weakness that could lead to fragmentation or a shift toward guerrilla warfare.

As a result, the militia may resort to prolonged guerrilla tactics as a last-ditch effort, leveraging its tribal alliances and combat experience in its traditional strongholds in Darfur. This is especially plausible if it maintains its diverse funding sources, including trade networks and gold smuggling operations.

Ultimately, the most likely scenario is that the RSF will morph into a decentralized insurgency, akin to other militia experiences in Africa, rather than remaining a unified military entity.

The RSF is banking on the notion that the army’s victories are temporary, driven by tactical factors or shifts in local power dynamics. However, the army’s recapture of strategic locations in Khartoum undeniably reflects its growing military superiority.

The liberation of the Republican Palace and key ministries represents more than just a military achievement; it carries profound symbolic and political significance, reaffirming the authority of the central government.

This development grants the army control over sovereign institutions, allowing it to resume administrative and political functions, albeit initially in a limited capacity.

Moreover, this advancement has a psychological impact—it boosts the army’s morale while weakening that of the RSF. Additionally, securing these headquarters may create conditions for the gradual resumption of government operations in the capital.

However, achieving genuine stability necessitates a comprehensive political process that includes all stakeholders, paving the way for good governance and a stable future for Sudan.

Post-War Sudan: Challenges and Political Prospects

The post-war period presents critical questions about Sudan’s future governance, pathways to national reconciliation, and the army’s ability to foster political consensus that leads to lasting stability.

As analysts consider the post-war rebuilding phase, they question the negotiation options available to the RSF should it fully acknowledge defeat.

Defining these options remains challenging due to the fluid nature of ground realities. However, possible scenarios and choices for the militia can be examined, keeping in mind that the concept of “defeat” itself may be relative, with varying definitions and implications.

Generally, negotiating from a position of defeat means that the RSF can no longer impose its terms but must instead negotiate from a considerably weaker stance.

In this context, the RSF may pursue several key objectives, including ending the fighting, minimizing human and material losses, retaining control over some areas or maintaining a semblance of its forces, negotiating terms of surrender or safe withdrawal, seeking assurances against prosecution for its leaders, and attempting to secure some political or security concessions even in the face of defeat.

Possible options for the RSF include direct negotiations with the Sudanese army, potentially involving surrender under specific conditions such as disarmament, determining the fate of remaining fighters, and securing guarantees for certain individuals. Alternatively, the RSF could negotiate a ceasefire and withdrawal from certain areas in exchange for assurances of non-retaliation.

The militia might also attempt to secure a limited political or security role in the future, albeit under less favorable terms than those it initially sought.

Another potential avenue is seeking external mediation through international or regional bodies, such as the African Union, the United Nations, or neighboring countries. This could provide the RSF with some level of protection or greater maneuverability.

Additionally, the RSF may explore new alliances or seek fresh regional or international backing to shift the balance of power. Alternatively, it might integrate into other military or political coalitions to sustain its influence or achieve some of its objectives.

However, all these options depend on the army’s willingness to engage in negotiations, considering its position as the victorious party and its preparedness for a potential guerrilla conflict against the RSF in Darfur.

The Future of Hemedti: Is There a Political Exit?

The possibility of a political exit for Hemedti diminishes as his forces suffer consecutive defeats and as accusations of war crimes mount against him, severely limiting his options.

The Sudanese army and civilian political forces insist on his removal from power and accountability for his actions, making any negotiated settlement contingent on significant concessions from him.

At present, no clear political exit seems feasible, as the army and its allies appear determined to eradicate his influence entirely. A major challenge facing Hemedti is his legal predicament—he is wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes in Darfur, alongside widespread public opposition to his inclusion in any political settlement.

Nevertheless, complex scenarios remain possible. He may seek to negotiate asylum through regional mediators in exchange for a gradual withdrawal of his forces, similar to past cases involving African warlords. However, finding a country willing to host him under these circumstances remains uncertain.

Challenges and Lessons Learned

Sudan faces immense security and economic challenges in the aftermath of this devastating war, necessitating comprehensive and sustainable solutions to achieve stability and recovery.

Among the most urgent challenges are dismantling remaining militant networks and rebuilding the severely damaged national economy.

The country must prioritize security stabilization, institution-building, economic reforms, and national reconciliation to ensure lasting peace and sustainable recovery.

To prevent a recurrence of such tragedies, governance principles, justice, and equality must be upheld, while inclusive dialogue and negotiations should be promoted among all stakeholders.