Dagalo’s Threat to Invade Northern State: Leading His Forces to the Inferno

Sudan Events – Agencies

Abdel Rahim Dagalo, deputy commander of the militia, appeared in a video among a crowd of his forces, threatening to invade Northern State. The rebel Dagalo is pushing his forces into a battle that will certainly not be a walk in the park, with no clear strategic objective other than fueling hateful ethnic incitement. It seems that Dagalo is trying to lift the morale of his shattered troops by enticing them with the idea of attacking Northern State, which, to these mercenary elements, appears to be an easy target that appeals to their deep-seated prejudices. Otherwise, what is the real objective of invading a state whose people are simple and whose homes are mostly built from mud bricks? Meanwhile, his militia has already fled from Khartoum, and the rebellion has lost the country’s capital. But is the militia really serious about attacking Northern State?

Misdirection: Pointing North, Moving Elsewhere

It is quite evident that Dagalo does not genuinely intend to attack Northern State. He had previously fled from the region after occupying Merowe Airport in the early days of the war and lacks the capability to fight in the open desert terrain. If anything, his objective might be to rid himself of the troublesome force that recently caused tensions in the city of Ed Daein.

Experts believe that Northern State is not an easy target to simply declare an attack on so openly and to expose invasion plans in such a public manner. Dagalo understands this well, as he knows that an attack on Northern State would provoke Egypt to secure its borders—an outcome neither the militia nor its main financier, the UAE, desires.

Analysts suggest that Dagalo is employing a blatant deception tactic long abandoned by military strategists since the Hyksos wars. Historically, armies would name one target while planning to invade another. Experts speculate that the militia’s real objective could be to seize Babanusa, thereby cutting off the army’s supply route from El Obeid to East Darfur. The distance from Ed Daein to Babanusa is approximately 119 km, and from Ed Daein to Adila, it is 237 km. Observers believe that Dagalo has gathered all his available forces, including those withdrawn from Khartoum, in an attempt to capture Babanusa and turn it into a forward defensive position for Ed Daein. They dismiss the possibility of targeting El Fasher, which the militia has likely given up on.

Other experts suggest that Dagalo is merely using the threat of invading Northern State as a scare tactic to deter the army from advancing into Darfur. He might station some forces in the desert to maintain the illusion of an imminent attack, but without actually carrying it out. If the militia truly attacked Northern State and suffered an expected defeat, the army would be completely freed up to focus on liberating Darfur.

A Media War

The militia has frequently mentioned attacking Northern State and River Nile State ever since its occupation of Khartoum and its treacherous assault on the army in mid-April 2023. However, these threats have never materialized. Even at its peak, the militia failed to achieve its ambition of invading Northern State or River Nile State. When it eventually sought to expand its campaign of atrocities, it moved southward instead, occupying Al-Jazira and parts of Sennar. This indicates that Dagalo’s recent threats of invading Northern State are merely psychological warfare and an attempt to cover up the irreplaceable loss of Khartoum.

Experts argue that the criminal Dagalo has resorted to rallying his defeated troops through ethnic incitement, realizing that mobilizing forces under the banner of racial hatred is far more effective than using slogans about democracy, the “remnants” (of the old regime), or neoliberalism—concepts that neither Dagalo nor his soldiers truly understand.

Regardless of the militia’s actual intentions, military experts stress that the army must be prepared for all possibilities. They believe that breaking the forces under Dagalo’s deputy is key to entering Darfur and ultimately ending the militia’s existence. This is because these forces, unlike the mercenaries from South Sudan and the “Falangas” from non-Rizeigat groups, represent the last remaining core fighters from Dagalo’s clan and inner circle—making them the militia’s final stronghold.

Source: “Sudanese Echoes”