War in Sudan Continues: What Are the Scenarios for the Third Year?

Sudan Events – Agencies

The war in Sudan enters its third year this Tuesday, having erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This brutal conflict has resulted in countless tragedies, the destruction of infrastructure, endless stories of pain, and the displacement of more than a third of the country’s population—making it the largest displacement crisis in the world, according to the United Nations.

On March 26, the plane carrying Sovereign Council Chairman and Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan landed at Khartoum International Airport, which had been under RSF control and used as a military base. Simultaneously, the army managed to retake the Presidential Palace in Khartoum, which had been under RSF control for nearly two years.

After losing strategic locations in the capital, the RSF escalated its attacks on El Fasher (the capital of North Darfur state in western Sudan). Last Saturday, the RSF committed what has been described as a “massacre,” killing and injuring more than 320 people, according to the El Fasher Resistance Coordination Committee (a local civilian group).

Where Is the War Heading?

With these rapid developments on the battlefield, analysts told Al Jazeera Net that while these are significant steps in the course of the war, they are not necessarily enough to end the fighting or bring it to a halt.

Major General Osama Eidaroos, former director of the Strategic Research Center of the Sudanese Armed Forces, stated, “The war is far from over by all standards. The army must still regain full control over the entire Darfur region and strip the RSF of any negotiating leverage.”

While recent gains in central Sudan are notable, Adel Al-Baz, editor-in-chief of Al-Ahdath newspaper, argues they are insufficient to end the war due to the RSF’s seemingly unlimited external support from regional or neighboring countries.

Both experts emphasized the danger posed by the RSF’s continued superiority in drone warfare—especially as these drones operate from bases outside Sudan—and the lack of proper defense systems at strategic sites like airports, military bases, and power stations.

They stressed the need for the Sudanese army to acquire an integrated air defense system, including radar for detection and missile systems capable of neutralizing drones.

Not Just a Local War

Despite significant advances by the Sudanese army over the past two years, analysts caution that the war in Sudan is complex, involving not only internal conflicts but also foreign agendas.

Political analyst Diaa Al-Din Bilal describes the war as multilayered. He argues it’s not merely a local power struggle between two factions over control and resources. He outlines three key factors:

1. The war is financed and supported by a powerful regional actor with significant economic and political influence both regionally and internationally.

2. Large numbers of foreign mercenaries have joined the fight.

3. The war’s objectives have expanded beyond national borders.

However, Bilal also points out that the RSF’s original plan—to seize power and capture army leaders—has already failed, as they were unable to achieve this objective early in the conflict.

The Political Future

As Sudanese citizens mark the war’s anniversary, they remain focused on the country’s political future, especially with the army regaining territory and some displaced people returning home.

Political analyst Muzammil Abu Al-Qasim states, “There is no political or military future for the RSF in Sudan. Sudanese priorities are now centered on defeating the militia, restoring security, and securing basic living conditions.” He believes this explains the widespread popular support currently enjoyed by the Sudanese army.

However, Adel Al-Baz believes the ongoing conflict clouds any clear political vision. He argues that Sudan’s political landscape will be shaped by the outcome of the war. A military victory would position the army and its allies to dominate future political arrangements, though the RSF may still gain some concessions through internationally mediated negotiations.

International relations and security expert Amer Hassan sees the uncertainty in the political vision—even from the government itself—as the weakest link. He explains, “The government is trying to balance a military resolution with a consensus over its own legitimacy.”

The RSF, meanwhile, has tried to carve out a political role for itself, even announcing the formation of a parallel government. However, Diaa Al-Din Bilal says this move was widely rejected—by the African Union and several countries. The AU’s Peace and Security Council explicitly called for non-recognition of the RSF’s so-called government.

The Humanitarian Situation

UN reports indicate that Sudan is facing the world’s largest displacement crisis, with over one-third of its population displaced—more than 12 million internally and an additional 3.8 million refugees along the borders. These reports describe a dire humanitarian disaster marked by destruction, hunger, disease, sexual violence, and unexploded ordnance.

Analysts unanimously describe the humanitarian situation as catastrophic and worsening as the war enters its third year, despite the army’s recent gains.

However, they differ on the geographic scope and specifics of the crisis. Muzammil Abu Al-Qasim believes the situation is particularly dire in western Sudan, where the RSF blocks roads, besieges cities, raids villages, loots property, kills civilians, and attacks humanitarian workers—as seen in the camps of Nivasha, Zamzam, and Abu Shouk near El Fasher.

Former army strategist Eidaroos highlighted the RSF’s siege of El Fasher, noting that the UN Security Council’s June 2024 resolution to lift the siege has not been enforced. “Sadly, the decision remains ink on paper, and the Council has no means to pressure the militia to comply,” he said.

Bilal lamented the international community’s failure to act, saying, “The world is content with reporting casualty figures and expressing sadness, but does nothing to pressure those supporting the war to stop.”

Amer Hassan offers a different perspective, arguing that the crisis is not primarily about famine, as some organizations claim. Instead, he points to logistical issues: blocked roads, RSF sieges, and looted aid shipments. He maintains that the crisis stems more from security breakdowns and theft than from a lack of food.

UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Clementine Nkweta-Salami delivered a message to the world, saying: “People are in a desperate situation. We appeal to the international community not to forget Sudan, not to forget the men, women, and children of Sudan who find themselves in this extremely difficult and critical moment.”