Escapes and Mutinies… “Zero-Sum” Options for the Militia in Kordofan

On Saturday morning, the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia stationed in the Kordofan region awoke to two terrifying incidents that exposed the reality behind the statements of the militia’s deputy commander, Abdel Rahim Dagalo. His claims of downplaying the impact of the “Al-Sayyad” (The Hunter) military force turned out to be nothing but a ploy to push fighters into confronting the army in the Kordofan plains. To many, this now seems more like a gamble—if not a death trap—which led RSF soldiers in Al-Fula to publicly express the difficulty of facing Al-Sayyad. Their fate was imprisonment and fines after militia leaders held a court for them and threw them in jail, but by then the feeling of doom had already spread among the fighters.

The First Incident:
The first incident occurred when a drone launched from Al-Debeibat targeted and killed militia commander Suleiman Salib Al-Deek along with eight of his soldiers on the spot. The incident sparked panic and terror among the militia forces, leading to a near-total withdrawal from the town of Abu Zabad to the city of Al-Fula. Rumors quickly spread suggesting a conspiracy behind the death of commander Salib Al-Deek, with fingers pointing at militia leader Hussein Barsham, who was accused of possibly leaking the coordinates of Salib Al-Deek’s location to the Al-Sayyad force as part of an internal power struggle over the leadership of Kordofan.

The Second Incident:
The second event also involved a drone, which struck a convoy of vehicles on the Bara road, reducing it to a heap of ashes. Dozens of RSF militia members perished in the incident. According to sources, prominent militia leaders began to flee in large numbers from the Tiba axis under various pretexts. The most recent was Captain Khala Rashid Mohamed Ibrahim, who requested permission to move his family from Sheikh area in North Kordofan to Dar Al-Salam in East Darfur.

Other Escape Cases:
Additional escape cases involved the rebels Fadel Al-Jubouri and Wad Mallah. Sources and eyewitnesses confirmed that both packed their belongings and decided to leave the Kordofan region entirely. Eyewitnesses reported that they headed to Nyala in Darfur. Meanwhile, other leaders from the Mahariya clan fled the town of An-Nuhud as the army approached the area of Umm Labana.

According to observers, the situation in Kordofan is now tilting in favor of the Al-Sayyad force, with uncertainty surrounding the fate of the militia members as the army reaches Al-Debeibat and approaches Abu Zabad in South Kordofan, and advances in West Kordofan toward Umm Labana en route to An-Nuhud.

Under these conditions, RSF elements in the Kordofan region find themselves caught between two fires: militia leadership refuses to arm them or provide them with combat vehicles despite their repeated complaints, fearing they might defect to the army; while on the other side, the Al-Sayyad force is closing in on them.

The Al-Sayyad Inferno:
According to sources inside Kordofan, many militia members in the region have realized that their commanders intend to get rid of them by sending them into the “Al-Sayyad Inferno,” and they are merely awaiting the army’s advance to surrender. The sources also confirmed that clashes among militia elements have not ceased, the most recent of which occurred on Saturday when the city of Al-Fula witnessed limited skirmishes after militia members were fined for stating the impossibility of confronting the Al-Sayyad force.

In reality, the Kordofan battles are expected to end once the army liberates the cities of Al-Fula and An-Nuhud—a goal that now seems closer than ever, approaching with each sunrise. Experts believe that RSF members from Kordofan now have one final chance to surrender to the army before facing zero-sum options. Retreating to Darfur is not a viable option for fighters already accused by the Mahariya clan within the RSF leadership of colluding with the army—which is the main reason they were not supplied with heavy weaponry. Staying hidden in the region after the army takes control won’t last long either; they will be hunted down one by one.

Source: “Sudanese Echoes”