Conflict, Famine, Agricultural Resilience and the Future of Humanitarian Strategy in Sudan (1 – 2)

Amgad Fareid Eltayeb

Since the outbreak of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in April 2023, Sudan’s agricultural and livestock sectors—long central to the national economy—have faced severe disruption. The incursion into Al-Jazira State in particular led to a complete halt in farming activities and damaged key infrastructure in the state, participating to a major food crisis and pushing several in Sudan toward famine.
In stark contrast to prevailing challenges, a March 2025 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report illuminates remarkable resilience and recuperation within Sudan’s agricultural sectors. The findings stem from the FAO’s Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (December 2024 – January 2025) in nine secure states under Sudanese Armed Forces control, namely Al-Jazira, Gedaref, Blue Nile, Kassala, Red Sea, Northern, River Nile, Sennar, and White Nile, supplemented by remote data collection for conflict-ridden areas (Khartoum, Darfur, Kordofan) to comprehensively assess the 2024/2025 agricultural output. A multifaceted methodology involved structured interviews with governmental, UN, and NGO entities, direct consultations with agricultural stakeholders, and the leveraging of satellite imagery and vegetation data to empirically ground field observations. This juxtaposition of systemic fragility and resilient recovery underscores the profound adaptability of Sudan’s agrarian communities.

Grains Against the Storm: Sudan’s Agricultural Reckoning
The report’s most compelling findings highlight a significant achievement in agricultural production for the 2024 seasons, which has marvelously overcome the setbacks of the war’s onset in 2023, though full recovery remains on the horizon. Total cereal production soared to 6.7 million metric tons, reflecting an impressive 62% increase over the previous year and a 7% rise above the past five-year average of 6.26 million metric tons. This harvest included:

Sorghum production: Achieved a 5.4 million metric tons, which is a 77% surge from 2023 (3.06 million metric tons) and a 30% increase over the five-year average (4.15 million metric tons), underscoring the sector’s dynamic recovery.
Millet production: Reached 792,943 metric tons, marking a 16% improvement over 2023 (683,000 metric tons), though it remains 45% below the five-year average (1.44 million metric tons).
Wheat production: Attained 490,320 metric tons, a notable 30% rise above the prior year’s average (377,000 metric tons), yet 22% below the five-year average (629,000 metric tons).
Furthermore, the total cultivated area for cereal crops expanded to 15.1 million hectares, reflecting a commendable 10% increase over the 2023/2024 season (13.7 million hectares) and a 5% rise above the five-year average (14.4 million hectares). This expansion reflects the indomitable spirit and adaptive ingenuity of Sudan’s agrarian communities to enhance productivity and reclaim arable land amidst ongoing challenges, further bolstering the optimistic trajectory of recovery delineated in the FAO’s March 2025 report. Remarkably, this expansion occurred even as large swaths of arable land in Khartoum, Darfur, and Kordofan remained under the RSF militia control during 2024, that prevented considerable farming activities taking place. It further underscores the latent potential for expanding Sudan’s agricultural production, illustrating the sector’s underlying resilience and capacity for growth even amid conflict and instability.
This achievement was partially enhanced by an exceptional rainy season. Data from the Vegetation Health Index indicated excellent vegetation conditions in October 2024, following a well-distributed rainfall pattern that began in July of the same year. However, this success was realized despite a severe shortage—and rising cost—of agricultural inputs, including seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, machinery, fuel, and labor. These challenges were compounded by the ongoing war, which drove inflation above 240% by late 2024 and caused a sharp depreciation of the Sudanese pound, falling to SDG 2,445 per U.S. dollar in December 2024, compared to SDG 1,100 per dollar in December 2023 and SDG 603 per dollar in March 2023, prior to the outbreak of the conflict.
This promising level of production is expected to significantly contribute to meeting the country’s food needs. With an estimated population of 50.7 million in 2025, the annual demand for cereals stands at approximately 7.715 million metric tons, based on an average per capita consumption of 152 kilograms—comprising 75 kg of sorghum, 58 kg of wheat, 16 kg of millet, 2 kg of rice, and 1 kg of maize. In addition to human consumption, a portion of these cereals is allocated for animal feed—estimated at 285,540 tons (5% of sorghum and 2% of millet)—as well as for use as seed grain, amounting to 116,960 tons. Post-harvest losses are projected to reach 314,230 tons. Altogether, Sudan’s total cereal requirements are estimated at approximately 8.42 million metric tons.
With domestic cereal production estimated at 6.7 million metric tons and pre-existing stocks totaling 9,151 tons (comprising 1,540 tons held privately, 3,262 tons by humanitarian organizations, and 4,349 tons in the government strategic reserves), a supply gap of approximately 2.7 million tons remains—one that must be bridged through imports.
Wheat constitutes the overwhelming majority of this gap, accounting for 91% of the shortfall. Nevertheless, a surplus of sorghum—estimated at around 979,330 tons—is expected, which could bolster national reserves and potentially help reduce import needs if strategic exchange agreements are negotiated with international agencies, particularly the World Food Programme. It is also important to note that the reliance on wheat as a dietary staple is a relatively recent phenomenon in Sudanese food culture. Traditionally, rural and agrarian communities have relied predominantly on sorghum and millet as their primary staples.
This year’s production has already contributed to a reduction in the market prices of domestically produced sorghum and millet by 20% and 10%, respectively, between October and December 2024, coinciding with the start of the marketing season for the 2024 harvest. However, despite these declines, prices remain nearly five times higher than their pre-conflict levels in April 2023.

The Endurance of Sudan’s Livestock Sector

The Sudanese livestock sector, comprising an estimated 112.5 million head of animals—41.5 million sheep, 32.9 million goats, 33 million cattle, and 5 million camels—has also demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of ongoing turmoil. In 2024, livestock conditions showed a notable improvement compared to 2023, primarily due to abundant rainfall that significantly enhanced pasture quality, ranging from good to excellent, with favorable grazing conditions expected to continue through March 2025.
Government efforts have succeeded in vaccinating approximately 8.2 million animals in relatively secure areas under the control of the Sudanese Armed Forces, despite the domestic suspension of vaccine production caused by the conflict. International support, particularly from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other agencies, provided imported vaccines to help fill this gap. However, security constraints have led to the concentration of herds in states such as Gedaref and Kassala—raising concerns about early pasture depletion and overgrazing.
The war-induced deterioration of the broader economic situation has led to a sharp rise in livestock prices. For instance, the price of a single dairy cow surged to 3.5 million Sudanese pounds (approximately USD 1,432 at the May 2025 exchange rate of SDG 2,445 per USD), marking a staggering 438% increase from December 2023, when the price was SDG 800,000 (around USD 327).
Livestock exports rose to 5 million head in 2024, a 10% increase compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, this remains significantly below pre-war export levels, which reached approximately 7 million head annually in 2018. These figures also exclude losses incurred from the complete halt in the export of slaughtered and frozen meat. Moreover, the resurgence of localized diseases—such as lumpy skin disease and foot-and-mouth disease—poses a serious threat to these gains, particularly given the weakened state of routine vaccination campaigns that had previously been regularly implemented before the war.