When the Regional Domino Moves… Sudan at the Heart of the Moment

By Ibrahim Shaqlawi
The Middle East is witnessing rapidly evolving developments amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, bringing back into focus the concept of the “regional domino effect,” where each crisis influences another in a chain of interconnected events. Although the current conflict is geographically limited, its repercussions may extend to key countries in the region, including Sudan, which now finds itself at the center of a new equation of balances and challenges.
Given Sudan’s geopolitical location, continued escalation could impact its economy—particularly in light of potential disruptions to energy markets and shipping routes through the Red Sea—exacerbating the pressure on an economy already suffering from the effects of war. It may become necessary for Sudan to reassess its logistical options, as seen in past experiences where it resorted to alternative foreign ports to navigate crises.
On the political front, the internal balance of power may shift as some regional actors—previously supporting parties to Sudan’s conflict—become preoccupied, leading to a decline in political and military backing for certain factions. This could create opportunities to reshape the internal scene in favor of state stability.
From a security perspective, there are growing concerns about the Red Sea turning into a flashpoint amid increasing competition for maritime influence, particularly around the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This places Sudan in a sensitive position that demands strategic stances balancing the protection of sovereignty with openness to regional changes.
Meanwhile, the situation has coincided with movements by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s forces near the border triangle between Sudan, Egypt, and Libya—prompting the Sudanese army to take countermeasures. These developments suggest that certain actors are attempting to capitalize on the security situation to gain ground or send political signals reflecting shifts in regional influence.
Several scenarios could unfold in Sudan. The state might take advantage of the distraction of regional powers to make military advances and end the rebellion. Alternatively, it could face a new wave of escalation driven by internal or external attempts to complicate the landscape, exploiting the fragile state of public services and governance.
Conversely, there are emerging signs of regional efforts toward de-escalation, led by countries like Qatar and Turkey, aiming to revive peace initiatives similar to past mediation efforts in places like Darfur. However, the success of these initiatives largely depends on the Sudanese people’s ability to unify their national stance, reject divisive rhetoric, and prioritize the public interest over partisan agendas.
All these challenges and opportunities place Sudan at a critical juncture that requires careful navigation of regional and international dynamics, with the aim of rebuilding the state, restoring peace, and protecting sovereign decision-making from dependency or entanglement in conflicts that are not among its priorities.