Washington’s Admission of Funding the Renaissance Dam: Timing and Implications

Sudan Events – Agencies

In an unprecedented move, U.S. President Donald Trump, for the first time during his new term, spoke about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), revealing that America had funded the project—a move he described as “stupid”—and which sparked a diplomatic crisis between Ethiopia and Egypt.

“Stupid Funding”

Commenting on the possibility of not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize despite the achievements during his terms, Trump referred to several international issues, foremost among them maintaining peace between Egypt and Ethiopia. He said the United States “stupidly” funded the Renaissance Dam, which Ethiopia built on the Blue Nile, causing a severe diplomatic rift with Egypt. He noted that the dam significantly reduces the Nile River’s water flow.

Establishing Calm

On his “Truth Social” platform, Trump stated his commitment to establishing calm in the Middle East, as he had done in several conflicts including the Israeli-Iranian war, India and Pakistan, Serbia and Kosovo, and between Egypt and Ethiopia regarding a massive dam that affects the great Nile River. He claimed that there is peace currently—at least for now—thanks to his intervention, and that it will remain so.

Trump’s remarks sparked significant reactions regarding the purpose and timing of his statement and its future consequences. It’s worth noting that Trump previously played the role of mediator in the GERD negotiations during his first term, though he ultimately failed to resolve the dispute between the two countries.

An Old Game

Former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Dr. Mohamed Nasr Eldin Allam, commented on Trump’s statements, saying, “It’s the irony of tragedy.” In a Facebook post, Allam added that Trump failed to consider that he was addressing Egypt—a country well aware of who was behind the 2011 events and the Ethiopian dams planned since the 1960s. He highlighted that the tactic of distracting nations and shifting their focus from one issue to another—preceded by scattered conflicts—is a very old game.

Similarly, Egyptian international law expert Dr. Ayman Salama posted on Facebook: “To correct Uncle Trump and his Facebook followers: Egypt has not, and will not, wage any wars against Ethiopia… the matter is settled.”

Attention-Seeking

Dr. Abbas Sharaky, a prominent Egyptian water resources expert, suggested that Trump’s mention of the GERD might be an attempt to draw attention to his global roles. Speaking to Al-Muhaqqiq (The Investigator), Sharaky clarified that the U.S. did not fund the dam. He explained that in 2020, the U.S. sponsored negotiations over the dam and a draft agreement was prepared between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia failed to show up on the signing day. Egypt signed the deal, while Sudan refrained due to Ethiopia’s absence. Since then, negotiations have failed. Trump was reportedly angered by Ethiopia’s actions and, two months later, suspended U.S. aid to Ethiopia—about $20 million.

Sharaky questioned the claim of U.S. funding, asking: “Would Trump have said during his first term that the dam is dangerous for Egypt and that no one would blame Egypt if it struck the dam, had America truly funded it?” He suggested Trump’s recent statements are more of a critique against former President Joe Biden’s administration, accusing it of misusing American funds. He added that dam storage was completed in September of last year, reaching 60 billion cubic meters.

An Admission Without Details

Sudanese international law expert Dr. Ahmed Al-Mufti noted that Trump’s statement was the first time followers of the GERD issue had heard of any U.S. funding. Al-Mufti, a former member of the international GERD committee, told Al-Muhaqqiq that Trump’s revelation came amid the Israeli attack on Iran, with no details or clarifications about whether the funding was full or partial, or whether it came directly from the U.S. government or affiliated entities.

He added that had the funding come from a party uninvolved in negotiations, the admission wouldn’t be very significant. However, the U.S. was deeply involved in the GERD talks and even invited the three countries to Washington when negotiations stalled, going so far as to draft an agreement that Egypt approved, but Ethiopia rejected. The U.S. also appointed a special envoy for the dam issue.

Self-Serving Goals

Al-Mufti emphasized that despite close U.S. engagement with Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the GERD, Washington never disclosed any financial involvement. He suggested that Trump’s recent admission likely serves U.S. interests rather than those of any of the three countries. He pointed out that had the funding been revealed earlier, the U.S. would not have been eligible to mediate in the negotiations.

He speculated that the statement could be aimed at winning over Egypt, especially given current disagreements between Cairo and Washington regarding the potential relocation of Palestinians to Sinai and Israel’s concerns about the Egyptian military presence in the area. He noted Trump’s regretful tone about the funding, which he said enabled Ethiopia to withhold Nile water to Egypt’s detriment.

Reassurance and Apology

Sudanese security and strategic affairs expert Dr. Amin Ismail Majzoub interpreted Trump’s statement as an indication that Egypt had posed a significant obstacle to U.S. Middle East policy. He told Al-Muhaqqiq that Egypt is a central regional power with vast influence, which led the U.S. to participate in funding the dam—possibly using American or Gulf funds—to pressure Egypt on water issues and to revise Nile water agreements.

He noted that these pressures did not yield the expected results. “From the beginning of the dam’s construction in 2011, through the signing of the Declaration of Principles in 2015, until now—what has changed?” he asked.

He argued that the Israeli-Iranian war had changed regional dynamics, and that the U.S. now needs Egypt. He saw Trump’s remarks as an attempt to expose past U.S. actions and express regret over the GERD funding, suggesting that Egypt remains the only stable regional power capable of leading efforts to resolve issues like the Palestinian question, secure maritime routes such as the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandeb, and end the war in Sudan.

He concluded that the U.S. might now hand over the Sudan file to Egypt, which better understands its complexities, and that Trump’s statement serves as reassurance and a form of apology to Cairo—possibly marking the start of a new chapter in relations.

Source: Al-Muhaqqiq News Website