UAE Reaches the Final Phase of Its Tactics
By Zain Al-Abidin Saleh Abdel Rahman
The swearing-in of what is being called the “Founding Government” marks the final stage in the strategy of the Emirati intelligence apparatus, which has overseen support for the militia. Forming such a government effectively shuts down all avenues for calls to end the war through negotiations. By taking the oath, the military is constitutionally empowered — under every constitution and political charter in Sudan since independence — to confront this move in defense of Sudan’s unity and sovereignty, without entertaining renewed calls for negotiations that were, in reality, meant to revive the militia’s political and military role.
The declaration of a government and its swearing-in narrows the confrontation to a single option for the army: defeating the militia outright, ignoring the appeals of its political wing. That wing has tied its continued relevance to restoring the militia’s political role through negotiations. Likewise, the militia’s backers believe it has only one path forward: to continue the war if it seeks any role in the future. By orchestrating the “Founding Government,” Emirati intelligence has left the militia with just one option — seizing power by force — which eliminates any room for maneuvering. This also suggests that the UAE recognizes it has lost most of the military leaders it once relied upon, leaving the militia exposed and unable to field alternative figures for tactical purposes. As a result, creating a government is seen as a way to engage regional and international actors in place of the Dagalo family leadership.
Emirati intelligence officials appear to believe they are maintaining pressure on the Sudanese Armed Forces to accept negotiations, a political ploy that has already failed for nearly three and a half years. The failure of their strategies is clear: first, sidelining the Central Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) leadership and replacing them with independents under the “Taqaddum” platform; then, when that failed politically, orchestrating a split into two wings — “Founding” and “Steadfast” — in hopes one might succeed. That too collapsed. Now, with the oath-taking of the “Founding Government,” the path forward has been reduced to a single outcome: the elimination of one side, either through military defeat or surrender.
By advancing the option of a “Founding Government,” the UAE and the militia have boxed themselves into a war with no alternatives. This course will force them to abandon many burdens they once believed would help them in encircling the army — efforts that have already failed. It may also compel the UAE to adjust its strategy or even quietly withdraw from the conflict, particularly as the fighting has become concentrated in states that serve as militia strongholds. The siege and ongoing military operations there are creating new realities, visible in clashes that have even broken out inside militia camps. These developments are already driving many local recruits to abandon the battlefield.
And so, the course of events may soon force a reckoning.
