Renaissance Dam Floodwaters Threaten Widespread Devastation in Sudan
Sudan Events – Agencies
Floodwaters have swept through at least six Sudanese states as water levels in the Nile and local dams surged to “unprecedented” heights, far exceeding past records. The rise has been fueled by heavy seasonal rains and massive water discharges from Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD).
The Nile has overflowed its banks, submerging farmland and residential areas. In several towns and cities along the river, waters have seeped into streets and homes—sometimes up to half a meter high—raising fears of significant human and material losses across large parts of the country.
Water resource and dam engineering experts warn that continued heavy rainfall in both Sudan and the Ethiopian highlands could trigger further flash floods, potentially devastating communities from the Blue Nile’s source to the northern reaches of the river along the Egyptian border.
Sudanese international water law expert Ahmed al-Mufti told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The government had promised citizens that one of GERD’s benefits would be flood control. But the exact opposite happened. The dam released volumes exceeding by a meter and a half the biggest flood Sudan experienced in 1988.” He added that the government’s passive stance—merely issuing warnings—was no less damaging than surrendering Sudan’s water rights, leaving the country to bear GERD’s negative impacts.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation’s General Directorate of Water Affairs reiterated warnings on Tuesday about the dangers facing residents along the Nile, urging precautions to safeguard lives and property.
According to the statement, flood levels have been reached at major monitoring stations in Khartoum, Wad Madani, Shendi, Atbara, Berber, and Jebel Aulia along the Blue Nile, White Nile, and the Nile itself up to Dongola in the far north.
Official data shows sharp fluctuations in water inflows: Nile flows fell to 699 million cubic meters per day, while Roseires Dam discharges dropped to 540 million. At the same time, Sennar Dam releases climbed to 706 million, Jebel Aulia south of Khartoum to 134 million, and Merowe Dam in the north to 750 million—the highest in years. These swings have inundated farmland across Blue Nile and Sennar states, damaging hundreds of acres.
The Jebel Aulia local emergency committee reported that White Nile waters breached barriers and swept into neighborhoods including Assal, Taybah al-Hasanab, al-Sheqilab, and al-Kalaklat, threatening homes with collapse. In a Facebook statement, the committee warned that rising inflows, now uninterrupted for five days, could drown large parts of southern Khartoum, with entire towns cut off.
In the north, floods have submerged farmland along the Nile, raising concerns that towns and cities could soon face the same fate as last year.
Hydrology and infrastructure consultant Abu Bakr Mustafa attributed the crisis to “exceptionally heavy rains in both Sudan and the Ethiopian highlands, coupled with the GERD reaching full capacity in mid-September. Water passages were opened, then closed again.”
He explained that authorities expected floods to recede after September 15, as usual. But heavy rains forced GERD operators to release up to 750 million cubic meters per day into the Nile. “Sudanese authorities were caught off guard by these massive inflows due to a lack of coordination and data sharing with Ethiopia,” he said.
The release of water from Roseires Dam near the border further raised Blue Nile levels, damaging farmland and low-lying areas in Blue Nile State and around Khartoum. Simultaneously, heavy inflows into the Sobat River—which joins the White Nile at Malakal in South Sudan—contributed to surges at Jebel Aulia Dam, flooding villages and farms from al-Jabalain through Kosti and al-Duwaym to Tuti Island at the confluence of the Blue and White Nile in central Khartoum.
Mustafa stressed that both governments still rely on outdated rainfall protocols without accounting for climate variability. “If rainfall patterns and inflows were properly monitored, and if there had been technical coordination, dam levels could have been managed lower to absorb these floods. That is why we are now seeing dangerously high levels from the Blue Nile to Shendi, and damage as far north as Wadi Halfa, Dongola, and the Red Sea mountains.”
He urged Sudan and Ethiopia to reach binding technical agreements on joint dam operations to prevent recurring disasters.
Meteorologists noted that this year’s torrential rains were the heaviest in decades, striking even Sudan’s far north—regions historically considered outside the country’s rainfall belt.
