El-Fasher: The City That Opened the Desert’s Gate to Chaos

By Dr. Abdel Nasser Sullam Hamid

In El-Fasher, it was not merely a city that fell; it was Sudan’s western gate that collapsed — the one that, for decades, shielded the Sahel from the winds of the desert.

What happened in late October 2025 (October 26, according to Human Rights Watch) was more than a military event. It was a political and security earthquake that reshaped the face of an entire region. After weeks of siege — and amid destruction that swept through hospitals, markets, and homes — the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized control of the city, opening a new chapter in Sudan’s war. A chapter that transcends Darfur’s borders and reaches deep into the heart of the African Sahel.

This takeover granted the RSF a vast sphere of influence stretching to the borders of Libya and Chad. It also provided new financial lifelines through control of gold-rich territories and smuggling routes. UN reports and independent investigations indicate that the historic — and now thriving — route from Jebel Amer through Kouri Bougoudi to Sebha in Libya has become one of Africa’s most vital smuggling corridors. Darfur’s war economy now functions as an open artery — channeling both wealth and weapons.

Yet military victory did not translate into civilian stability. The force that excels in battle does not necessarily know how to govern cities.

Today, El-Fasher — like other towns in Darfur — faces a profound administrative and security vacuum. Schools remain closed, hospitals operate with dwindling resources, and daily life unfolds without functioning institutions. What appeared to be a military triumph quickly turned into a silent chaos, where weapons and want coexist, and victory blurs into collapse.

Meanwhile, Sudan’s army remains trapped in the patterns of an old war. Its forces, entrenched in airbases and static garrisons, have struggled to counter an adversary that moves with agility and familiarity across terrain it knows best.

Thus, the Darfur conflict has evolved into an open-ended war without clear frontlines — one where politics, economics, and media intertwine, and where the meaning of victory and defeat is rewritten each day.

The fall of El-Fasher reverberated beyond Sudan’s borders. Within days, on October 31, 2025, Chad announced the closure of the Adré border crossing — a move reflecting fears of militant infiltration and arms proliferation. According to UNHCR, Chad now hosts more than 900,000 Sudanese refugees who fled Darfur since 2023. Under growing humanitarian strain, N’Djamena shifted from a policy of humanitarian openness to one of security caution, deploying additional troops along the frontier. The closure was not a mere bureaucratic measure — it was an early warning of how fragile the entire region has become.

Darfur’s other borders fare no better. To the north, the desert stretches toward Libya along open smuggling routes linking to Sebha and Fezzan. From the southwest, the Central African Republic’s frontier overlaps with areas populated by armed groups — remnants of “Séléka” and “Anti-balaka” factions — tied to networks trading in gold and weapons. To the southeast, informal trade routes lead into South Sudan, where livestock and fuel function as a barter currency in a shadow economy that transcends borders.

All this has turned Darfur into a hub for an invisible world of tribal, commercial, and military interests — a place where smugglers, traders, and armed groups intersect in the absence of the state. Over time, these networks have become a de facto alternative to governance, managing resources and imposing their own rules.

This vacuum not only fuels the ambitions of local armed movements but also tempts groups from beyond Sudan’s borders. The region risks becoming an open refuge for transnational factions from Chad, the Central African Republic, and South Sudan. In the northwest, Chadian opposition groups — long familiar with the terrain between Libya and Darfur — remain active; in the southwest, African militias intersect with arms dealers; and in the southeast, rising tensions threaten to spill into border areas with South Sudan.

Though Darfur has not yet witnessed verified activity from extremist groups, its fragile security and flourishing smuggling economy make it a fertile ground for future infiltration. Open desert routes and the absence of authority offer an ideal environment for any organization seeking a new foothold. Recent international research suggests that the patterns of gold and fuel trafficking in Darfur closely resemble those financing extremist groups across the western Sahel, where illicit trade merges with ideological agendas in a single space of disorder.

Without regional coordination, Darfur could become the “eastern spark” of the Sahel — if the collapse continues.

The region that once symbolized cultural diversity has become an emblem of state fragmentation — where resources have turned into fuel for endless war.

The tragedy is not merely the fall of a city, but the loss of the ability to imagine a safe future.

Today, Darfur is no longer just a humanitarian or military file; it is the epicenter of Africa’s intertwined crises — where the routes of gold, refugees, and human lives converge.

Unless Sudanese leaders — together with their regional partners — reclaim the initiative, chaos will not stop at Sudan’s borders.
It will creep, slowly but steadily, across the sands, toward the very heart of the African Sahel — where interests and crises meet, without boundaries or end.