Trump and the Sudan File: Will the Saudi–American Initiative Return to Center Stage?

Ambassador Dr. Muawiya Al-Toum

Since former U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he was withdrawing the Sudan file from his advisors and would personally take charge of it—following a series of recent developments—the Sudanese crisis has entered a new phase. This phase cannot be separated from shifts taking place in Washington and Riyadh, developments on the military ground, or the nature of the ongoing regional proxy war that has sought to tear Sudan apart for more than two and a half years since April 2023.

This shift—driven by internal pressures, bureaucratic rivalries within the U.S. administration, and evolving political calculations—has raised a fundamental question:

Does Trump’s direct intervention enhance the chances of reviving the Saudi–American initiative?
Or is it merely an electoral maneuver unlikely to change the situation on the ground?

Available indicators point toward three major trends that signal a markedly different stage ahead.

First: Trump’s Decision… Moving the File from “Bureaucratic Routine” to “Presidential Action”

The sidelining of his advisors was not just an administrative measure. It was a declaration that Washington had discovered reasons compelling it to elevate the handling of Sudan from second-tier staff to the President’s office directly—particularly in light of the confusion stirred by the Quad, the Sudanese leadership’s reaction to it, and the perceived biases of Trump’s envoy, Massad, toward Abu Dhabi, reflected in his imbalanced statements and wavering positions.

This shift indicates several key points:

1. The failure of the previous narrow approach that reduced the crisis to an “internal conflict.”

2. The widening scope of regional interventions linked to energy corridors, the Red Sea, and security in East Africa.

3. Trump’s desire to assert his personal imprint—especially on issues that allow him to appear decisive and engaged with major global crises.

4. A reassessment of the UAE’s role, which has become central in discussions within U.S. institutions, given Abu Dhabi’s ongoing projects aimed at reshaping Africa to its favor and its intersections with major global powers.

This recalibration itself revives momentum around the Saudi–American initiative as the only track with dual legitimacy:
regional legitimacy (Saudi leadership) and international cover (Washington), reinforced by a global safety net that includes the UN and influential regional actors.

Second: Democratic Criticism of Trump… A New Incentive for Washington to Act

Democrats accuse Trump of:

Politicizing the file for his electoral campaign while ignoring the requirements of a genuine solution.

Neglecting the humanitarian catastrophe and failing to treat it as an urgent crisis.

Lacking a clear peace plan or a roadmap for implementation.

Being too lenient with regional actors—such as the UAE and certain neighboring states—accused of fueling the conflict and supporting the rebellion.

Despite their negative tone, these criticisms produce an unintended effect:

Trump now needs to demonstrate swift, effective action that proves he is neither impulsive nor opportunistic—and that he can steer a serious path toward ending the war.

The only existing, ready, and somewhat promising path—one that can be revived without major political cost—is the Saudi–American initiative, especially given the Sudanese leadership’s acceptance of it and Sudan’s prior engagement through the Jeddah Platform.

Any relative success achieved through this initiative would count directly as a Trump accomplishment—embarrassing his Democratic critics, who failed to manage the crisis over the past years. It would also advance stability in Sudan and the region—provided Washington moves beyond a reliance on threats, sanctions, and punitive financial designations toward a more balanced framework.

Third: Prospects for Reviving the Saudi–American Initiative Under the New Circumstances

Trump’s direct intervention enhances the initiative’s prospects in several key ways:

1. A Unified American Message

When Washington acts with one voice—or literally one person—the usual fragmentation between the State Department, the White House, Congress, and lobbying groups diminishes. This unity enables more effective pressure on regional actors, especially those accused of fueling the conflict.

2. Raising the Cost of Obstruction

Unlike the Biden administration, Trump tends to favor the “big stick” approach toward actors who maneuver.
Even the threat of unilateral measures could force regional players to recalculate—especially if backed by a credible international safety net.

3. Alignment with Saudi Priorities

Riyadh’s priorities include:

Containing instability in the Red Sea,

Preventing unregulated regional influence,

And stopping Sudan’s transformation into an open proxy battlefield.

Trump’s reemergence offers Saudi Arabia an American partner capable of decisive action at a critical regional moment.

4. The Initiative Remains Revivable

It was never buried—only stalled due to:

Internal divergences within the U.S. administration,

Conflicting regional agendas,

And collapsing trust between Sudan’s warring parties,

Along with the Quad’s approach and the noise surrounding the UAE’s role.

Trump’s return could provide a new political engine to bring parties back under the Jeddah umbrella.

5. Curtailing the UAE’s Role

Trump’s implicit and explicit critiques—shaped in part by institutional reporting—may limit the ability of any actor to continue funding the war without restraint.
If this occurs, the Saudi–American initiative becomes the only viable path—particularly given Sudan’s categorical rejection of any Emirati involvement in mediation.

Conclusion: Will the Saudi–American Track Succeed?

Yes—its chances are now higher than in previous months, but only if two conditions are met:

1. Trump must continue to manage the file directly and substantively, with a new framework outlining core principles, guarantees, incentives, and timelines.

2. Riyadh and Washington must establish a joint pressure umbrella, targeting regional actors before local ones.

Sudan stands at a moment that could reshape regional power balances—amid widespread international condemnation of rebel abuses and calls for their designation as a terrorist organization.

If the Jeddah initiative is revived—with sharper parameters—it could represent the last political opportunity before the war escalates into even more dangerous levels.
The moment must therefore be seized to bring about a just peace, restore security, and return the country to stability in accordance with the Sudanese leadership’s declared principles.