Banker: Central Bank’s 2026 Policies Are a Serious Attempt to Reset the Economic Course

Sudan Events – Rehab Abdallah

Executive banker and economic researcher Ayman Jawish has affirmed that the Central Bank of Sudan’s policies for 2026 come amid one of the most complex economic crises Sudan has faced since independence, representing a serious attempt to reset the country’s economic trajectory in light of the repercussions of the ongoing war.

Jawish noted that, according to International Monetary Fund data, Sudan’s inflation rate is expected to reach approximately 87.2% in 2025, alongside severe economic contraction during the two years of war. World Bank estimates indicate that more than 46% of the population now lives below the poverty line, while government revenues have declined by more than half since the outbreak of aggression against the Sudanese people.

In this context, he explained, the Central Bank’s policies emerge as a key instrument for rebuilding confidence, achieving monetary stability, and promoting financial inclusion and digital transformation, with a clear focus on supporting productive sectors and sustainable financing.

Jawish stated that the announced policies for 2026 are based on a deep awareness of the magnitude of the challenges: a fragile banking system, runaway inflation, and a collapse of public confidence. The Central Bank is targeting nominal growth in money supply of 47.6%, and growth in the monetary base of 41.1%, while attempting to curb inflation to an average of 65%—a high figure, but one that reflects realism under conditions of hyperinflation.

He pointed out that a notable feature of these policies is their reliance on non-traditional tools, including sectoral credit guidance, emergency liquidity facilities, and bank restructuring based on a four-tier classification distinguishing between sustainable banks and those requiring reform or liquidation. This approach, he said, reflects an understanding that recovery cannot be achieved without restoring confidence in financial intermediation.

Jawish also highlighted the absence of any reference in the Central Bank’s 2026 policies to cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, whether in terms of financing or technical assistance. In a post-war environment marked by chronic fiscal deficits and eroded foreign reserves, this absence may be viewed as a risky form of voluntary isolation. Conversely, it could also be seen as an opportunity to redefine economic sovereignty away from IMF conditionality and standardized solutions.

He noted that Sudan, with its vast untapped natural resources—from gold and other minerals to fertile agricultural land—possesses alternative financing potential. Among the creative solutions he proposed is the issuance of sovereign sukuk backed by currently non-productive natural assets, such as mineral reserves or agricultural land, enabling the mobilization of domestic and external resources without resorting to conventional borrowing or compromising sovereignty.

Jawish pointed to the experiences of countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia in utilizing Islamic finance instruments, including asset-backed sukuk, as successful models of independent monetary policies that achieved stability and growth without direct reliance on the IMF.

He further explained that one of the bright spots in the policies is the strong orientation toward digital transformation and enhanced financial inclusion. Supporting fintech companies, establishing data warehouses, and linking payment systems regionally all reflect ambitions to move beyond traditional structures toward a more resilient economy. Allocating 12% of financing portfolios to microfinance, with a focus on women, youth, and those affected by the war, also reflects an important social dimension.

However, he stressed that achieving a qualitative leap in this area depends on adopting global best practices, such as launching a unified national digital identity linked to bank accounts and used across all financial transactions.

If nationwide implementation proves difficult, flexible alternatives could be adopted, such as using registered mobile phone numbers as digital identifiers—as practiced in Bahrain—or biometric verification systems through banking agents in remote areas. He also called for the establishment of a national fund to support financial innovation, financing fintech startups and providing risk guarantees, as well as adopting ISO 20022 standards to unify financial messaging and facilitate integration with regional and international systems.

On the international banking front, Jawish noted that derisking policies pursued by correspondent banks pose a major challenge to the flow of remittances and external transactions. To overcome this, he proposed establishing a specialized central compliance unit under the Central Bank to monitor international standards and provide unified reports to correspondent banks; leveraging regional compliance platforms such as AFI or the SWIFT KYC Registry to enhance transparency; and signing bilateral agreements with regional Islamic banks that are not subject to the same Western constraints, to provide alternative financing and transfer channels.

Jawish concluded that the Central Bank of Sudan’s 2026 policies represent a serious attempt to recalibrate the economy in a post-war environment. However, as some economists may argue, they lack the “external anchor” typically provided by international cooperation, particularly with the IMF. In the absence of such support, the success of these policies will depend on the state’s ability to mobilize domestic resources, restore confidence, and avoid further monetary deterioration.

In this context, he underscored the importance of mobilizing national capital resources, particularly those aligned with the state and its sovereign institutions, including the armed forces, through the issuance of attractive financing and investment instruments. He cited the early experience of government certificates such as the “Shahama Certificate,” which successfully attracted substantial public savings through high returns and sovereign guarantees.

Similar instruments could be developed today, including productive national sukuk to finance infrastructure, agriculture, and energy projects; investment certificates backed by gold or real estate assets to enhance confidence and hedge against inflation; and sovereign investment funds jointly owned by the state, private sector, and expatriates, managed transparently and subject to independent oversight.

Ultimately, Jawish emphasized, the success of these policies depends not only on sound design, but also on political will, good governance, and the ability to build national consensus around recovery priorities. Sudan, despite its wounds, still possesses the resources and human potential to move forward—if these assets are wisely harnessed.