Hemedti and the “Kampala Arena”
By Dr. Yasser Mahjoub Al-Hussein
The appearance of the commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) rebellion, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti,” in Kampala was not a passing publicity event. Rather, it appeared to be an attempt to salvage an image eroding under the weight of battlefield setbacks, particularly in South Kordofan. The militia, which had banked on shock tactics and rapid territorial expansion, now finds itself mired in a prolonged war of attrition that has strained its supply lines and dismantled the myth of the “Rapid Support” brand.
The Sudanese Armed Forces’ advances in Kadugli and its surroundings, and their recapture of several strategic open areas, were not merely geographic gains; they marked a shift in the balance of power and in combat morale.
The modest rally organized in the Ugandan capital, Kampala, appeared limited in impact—closer to a symbolic display of presence than a demonstration of influence. The logical question arises: why distant Kampala, which does not border Sudan, when such an event could theoretically have been staged in neighboring Chad along the western frontier, or in South Sudan with its intertwined security dynamics?
The answer lies in the narrowing of regional options. The geographically closer routes are no longer as accessible, whether due to disruptions in support channels via Libya and Chad, or as a result of new political calculations in neighboring capitals.
International criticism of the militia has intensified amid accusations of grave violations in Darfur and Kordofan—allegations documented in United Nations reports and now constituting a political liability for any state contemplating overt support or explicit hosting. By contrast, the Sudanese Armed Forces continue to accumulate battlefield gains, presenting themselves as the central state institution confronting rebellion, backed by longstanding organizational and military experience. This shift has prompted several countries to reassess their positions, wary of betting on a party whose prospects may be diminishing, or of antagonizing an institution that represents the backbone of the Sudanese state.
As for Uganda, under the leadership of President Yoweri Museveni, its hosting of this appearance cannot be divorced from the character of a political system long accustomed to leveraging regional cards to strengthen its negotiating position. Yet such hospitality does not grant the militia strategic depth so much as it reflects its search for an alternative platform following the contraction of its nearer support bases.
In sum, the Kampala scene was not a show of strength, but rather an indication of shrinking space and shifting regional dynamics. When the nearby geography tightens and international calculations grow more complex, recourse to distant capitals becomes less a sign of reach than an expression of isolation. With the army’s continued advances, the rally appears more a symptom of political anxiety than a harbinger of newfound influence.
