The wider Red Sea is an arena of geo-strategic contest where the embers are already smouldering for a wider war that drags in all the world\u2019s main powers. Russia\u2019s Wagner Group is an active military and commercial partner with the RSF \u2013 it is heavily invested in Sudan\u2019s gold industry.
\nThe breadth of these complications has no precedent, but the contours of the looming crisis have been evident for some years. Sudan has wrestled for decades with the twin problem of an apparently bottomless economic crisis and governing an ethnically and religiously diverse nation.
\nThe civilian-led cabinet headed by Abdalla Hamdok, formed after the 2019 civic revolution, could neither stabilize the economy nor loosen the military kleptocrats\u2019 stranglehold over the most profitable sectors. Left to fend for themselves by international donors that failed to appreciate the urgency of a massive bailout, the democrats\u2019 failure was preordained.
\nAl-Burhan and Hemedti jointly launched a coup in 2021. But the two generals couldn\u2019t solve Sudan\u2019s problems. They were just more ruthless in staying in power \u2013 by the same token sharpening the dispute between themselves.
\nSince civil war broke out last year, a succession of efforts to bring the warring parties to the negotiating table has failed. The United States\u2013Saudi talks in Jeddah, an Egyptian initiative, and repeated efforts by northeast African leaders, have stumbled because of internal Sudanese veto or outside interference.
\nConspicuously lacking is a mechanism for ensuring that the Middle Eastern powers \u2013 especially the UAE \u2013 come to the table with constructive proposals. The US has not raised its political engagement to a high-enough level for it to be taken seriously in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
\nIt should not be difficult to reach a consensus across Africa and the Middle East that state collapse is in no one\u2019s interest. A common goal of preventing the worst outcome should override differing preferences for who should lead the country.
\nMechanisms for building such a consensus existed a decade ago. They included the Sudan Consultative Forum, convened by the United Nations and African Union and involving all interested parties, which was left to wither. The AU Peace and Security Council, which has a record of forging such a consensus agenda, is a shadow of its former self. The United Nations has reduced itself to humanitarian provider.
\nFor the Sudanese, the stakes are existential. The state has collapsed and the path to rebuilding it is long and fraught. Atrocities in western Darfur may amount to genocide. Millions are homeless. Half the country is hungry with many facing famine.
\nIf Sudan remains an international orphan, the calamity will only deepen.<\/p>\n
Sudan is Collapsing \u2013 Here\u2019s How to Stop it (3-3)<\/p>\n
The wider Red Sea is an arena of geo-strategic contest where the embers are already smouldering for a wider war that drags in all the world\u2019s main powers. Russia\u2019s Wagner Group is an active military and commercial partner with the RSF \u2013 it is heavily invested in Sudan\u2019s gold industry.
\nThe breadth of these complications has no precedent, but the contours of the looming crisis have been evident for some years. Sudan has wrestled for decades with the twin problem of an apparently bottomless economic crisis and governing an ethnically and religiously diverse nation.
\nThe civilian-led cabinet headed by Abdalla Hamdok, formed after the 2019 civic revolution, could neither stabilize the economy nor loosen the military kleptocrats\u2019 stranglehold over the most profitable sectors. Left to fend for themselves by international donors that failed to appreciate the urgency of a massive bailout, the democrats\u2019 failure was preordained.
\nAl-Burhan and Hemedti jointly launched a coup in 2021. But the two generals couldn\u2019t solve Sudan\u2019s problems. They were just more ruthless in staying in power \u2013 by the same token sharpening the dispute between themselves.
\nSince civil war broke out last year, a succession of efforts to bring the warring parties to the negotiating table has failed. The United States\u2013Saudi talks in Jeddah, an Egyptian initiative, and repeated efforts by northeast African leaders, have stumbled because of internal Sudanese veto or outside interference.
\nConspicuously lacking is a mechanism for ensuring that the Middle Eastern powers \u2013 especially the UAE \u2013 come to the table with constructive proposals. The US has not raised its political engagement to a high-enough level for it to be taken seriously in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
\nIt should not be difficult to reach a consensus across Africa and the Middle East that state collapse is in no one\u2019s interest. A common goal of preventing the worst outcome should override differing preferences for who should lead the country.
\nMechanisms for building such a consensus existed a decade ago. They included the Sudan Consultative Forum, convened by the United Nations and African Union and involving all interested parties, which was left to wither. The AU Peace and Security Council, which has a record of forging such a consensus agenda, is a shadow of its former self. The United Nations has reduced itself to humanitarian provider.
\nFor the Sudanese, the stakes are existential. The state has collapsed and the path to rebuilding it is long and fraught. Atrocities in western Darfur may amount to genocide. Millions are homeless. Half the country is hungry with many facing famine.
\nIf Sudan remains an international orphan, the calamity will only deepen<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The wider Red Sea is an arena of geo-strategic contest where the embers are already smouldering for a wider war that drags in all the world\u2019s main powers. Russia\u2019s Wagner Group is an active military and commercial partner with the RSF \u2013 it is heavily invested in Sudan\u2019s gold industry. The breadth of these complications …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":16262,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16261"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16263,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16261\/revisions\/16263"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16262"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}